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Trend Analysis Question

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#1 KCScott



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Posted 07 December 2009 - 10:07 PM

Basic TA backchecking to determine if I'm making the right calls

Oct. SSO - This looked like a major violation of the March trendline in early October.
Combined with the Sell volume & MACD crossover it looked to be a good time to exit long position

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A month later it just looked like a pullback to the lower BB and set a new high.
The lower trendline I've draw off that Nov. 1 low didn't get it's third hit till today -
Was I too early to sell? - It looks like it now in hindsite

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Same line of thinking on QLD - I saw the trendline break and sold as it got close to touching it from the backside
Now that I think about it - I also used the QLD chart sell to help strengthen my opinion on exiting SSO
I do read this board whenever possible - I remember Tuffy posting an IBD sell - that sticks out

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a month later I'm kicking myself for not buying back when it hit that lower BB and went back up

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I'd describe my trading style as IT to LT - Not someone who can look at this daily
Just wondered if there's any advice for how I'm looking at and judging these decisions?

Thanks - Scott
KC Scott Blogs at IBC: http://ibankcoin.com/kcscott/

#2 diogenes227



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Posted 31 December 2009 - 12:02 PM

Just noticed no one answered this.

I'd recommend "Trader Vic -- Methods of a a Wall Street Master" by Victor Sperandeo, truly one of the greatest books ever written on playing the market with technical analysis. His system is a splendid simplicity using price action and trend lines. He covers this exact situation in that book.

Good trading to you. :)

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I spent half my money on gambling, alcohol and wild women. The other half I wasted, W.C. Fields.