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#11 arbman

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Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:00 PM

Fib, this is the reality of this recovery so far, we should've had 300k jobs growth from month #9 (or September) in the past recoveries of the several decades and tomorrow the truth will come out, maybe 30k, maybe 50k jobs, drop in a bucket compared to the 7M jobs lost over the past 2 years. Now, not only these people are a net drain to the economy, but also who knows how they can be possibly employed anytime soon? The same growth will not be back for many many more quarters to come and the market cannot just wait for that to happen, it will correct sooner than later first...

Edited by arbman, 07 January 2010 - 04:01 PM.


#12 fib_1618

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Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:08 PM

We'll see, I think there are a lot of parallels to 70s...

The only parallels between now and then is presumption.

There is absolutely nothing in the history of man that can compare with the current capitalistic market environment. Stocks are no longer the kind of investment vehicle that has their strict basis on earnings anymore. They're just another commodity, and should be traded as such.

this is the reality of this recovery so far

Reality has little comprehension to someone who is on crystal meth and keeps getting a continuous fix.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it. - Benjamin Franklin

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#13 Gary Smith

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Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:18 PM

>>> There is absolutely nothing in the history of man that can compare with the current capitalistic market environment<<< Can I nominate Fib's line above as most prescient quote (by far) ever uttered on this forum????? A fact so many have been completely oblivious to during the past year. Maybe there are some advantages afterall to being old geezers like Fib and myself. By the way, today will be the 26th consecutive trading day of all time record historic highs in the junk bond market. Can you imagine if stocks were to ever put on such a display?

#14 arbman

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Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:20 PM

Hah hah! Fib, please do not go back to the insult mode again. OR DO NOT POST EVER AGAIN IN MY THREADS I DO NOT NEED YOUR INSULTS.

This is a mixture of 30s and 70s. In 30s the Fed refused to help and crashed the system, in 70s they overdid too much and it eventually blew up too... This time they are trying to balance the two. At some times you go back to 30s as the deflationary forces show up quickly when they let go of the gas pedal, then in other times 70s take over as the commodities rally much faster than the equities...

#15 relax

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Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:24 PM

Fib, this is the reality of this recovery so far, we should've had 300k jobs growth from month #9 (or September) in the past recoveries of the several decades and tomorrow the truth will come out, maybe 30k, maybe 50k jobs, drop in a bucket compared to the 7M jobs lost over the past 2 years. Now, not only these people are a net drain to the economy, but also who knows how they can be possibly employed anytime soon? The same growth will not be back for many many more quarters to come and the market cannot just wait for that to happen, it will correct sooner than later first...


sorry but should we really care about the job numbers

they are most likely manipulated anyhow and with the all the fed has done for the market, i am sure that the job report is "controlled"

the job report is rarely a game changer, which is the case with all economic data

the reaction to economic data simply follows the flow of liquidity

sure we may get a sell off on the jobs report, but i think it is very unlikely that it ends up being a game changer that changes the trend

we could get something similar to dec 4 job report, but i really don't know

as "always" a gap up on the job report is a sell and gap down a buy

#16 arbman

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Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:26 PM

All I know is the gold is trading near all time highs and this is not because there is a gold shortage, it is because of printing. Something that didn't happen in 30s. The 2008 crash happened because Fed did not print on time and decided to not rescue Lehman, just like in 30s. We are alternating in between the two eras...

#17 arbman

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Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:28 PM

sorry but should we really care about the job numbers

they are most likely manipulated anyhow and with the all the fed has done for the market, i am sure that the job report is "controlled"

the job report is rarely a game changer, which is the case with all economic data

the reaction to economic data simply follows the flow of liquidity

sure we may get a sell off on the jobs report, but i think it is very unlikely that it ends up being a game changer that changes the trend

we could get something similar to dec 4 job report, but i really don't know

as "always" a gap up on the job report is a sell and gap down a buy


Fib came and said that it takes x number of months for the markets to respond [and I presume return to trend growth] so that it supports the equities even higher. He is referring the compounding effect in the economy of the money multiplier of their printing. I just responded that in order for that theory to work, we needed to have very strong jobs growth by now.

The initial moves in the markets are not connected since it is mainly driven by the central planning and all of that, but none of these would work unless you get the appropriate economic reaction over time for the trend growth with low inflation...

BTW, if I get a good return on tomorrow's trade, this is fine. If not, it has little to do immediately about the jobs' report anyway. I just took the trade based on the rally on negative volume as I said above...

Edited by arbman, 07 January 2010 - 04:32 PM.


#18 fib_1618

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Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:45 PM

Fib, please do not go back to the insult mode again. OR DO NOT POST EVER AGAIN IN MY THREADS I DO NOT NEED YOUR INSULTS.

I have no idea what you're talking about. I'm only trying to convey to you that you're looking at the markets with a historic customary eye. But if you believe this to be an insult, fine...I will refrain from posting directly to you, but this doesn't mean that I won't have an idea to share in any thread in which you may be a part of.

I am on your side sir. I know what's going on (we ALL know what's going on) and I don't like it either.

But technically speaking, nothing really matters right now that is deemed as "fundamental reality".

Take a deep breath and relax, and as I said previously, I wish you good skill on the trade.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it. - Benjamin Franklin

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#19 arbman

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Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:49 PM

Reality has little comprehension to someone who is on crystal meth and keeps getting a continuous fix.


I honestly took this personally, I am very sorry... I guess you meant the economy...


(btw, I meant to say I just took the trade based on the negative breadth for most of the day)

Edited by arbman, 07 January 2010 - 04:52 PM.


#20 porsche911sg

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Posted 07 January 2010 - 05:11 PM

I am adding more shorts tom.
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!