Edited by arbman, 07 January 2010 - 04:01 PM.
SPX 1142
#11
Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:00 PM
#12
Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:08 PM
The only parallels between now and then is presumption.We'll see, I think there are a lot of parallels to 70s...
There is absolutely nothing in the history of man that can compare with the current capitalistic market environment. Stocks are no longer the kind of investment vehicle that has their strict basis on earnings anymore. They're just another commodity, and should be traded as such.
Reality has little comprehension to someone who is on crystal meth and keeps getting a continuous fix.this is the reality of this recovery so far
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
Technical Watch Subscriptions
#13
Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:18 PM
#14
Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:20 PM
This is a mixture of 30s and 70s. In 30s the Fed refused to help and crashed the system, in 70s they overdid too much and it eventually blew up too... This time they are trying to balance the two. At some times you go back to 30s as the deflationary forces show up quickly when they let go of the gas pedal, then in other times 70s take over as the commodities rally much faster than the equities...
#15
Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:24 PM
Fib, this is the reality of this recovery so far, we should've had 300k jobs growth from month #9 (or September) in the past recoveries of the several decades and tomorrow the truth will come out, maybe 30k, maybe 50k jobs, drop in a bucket compared to the 7M jobs lost over the past 2 years. Now, not only these people are a net drain to the economy, but also who knows how they can be possibly employed anytime soon? The same growth will not be back for many many more quarters to come and the market cannot just wait for that to happen, it will correct sooner than later first...
sorry but should we really care about the job numbers
they are most likely manipulated anyhow and with the all the fed has done for the market, i am sure that the job report is "controlled"
the job report is rarely a game changer, which is the case with all economic data
the reaction to economic data simply follows the flow of liquidity
sure we may get a sell off on the jobs report, but i think it is very unlikely that it ends up being a game changer that changes the trend
we could get something similar to dec 4 job report, but i really don't know
as "always" a gap up on the job report is a sell and gap down a buy
#16
Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:26 PM
#17
Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:28 PM
sorry but should we really care about the job numbers
they are most likely manipulated anyhow and with the all the fed has done for the market, i am sure that the job report is "controlled"
the job report is rarely a game changer, which is the case with all economic data
the reaction to economic data simply follows the flow of liquidity
sure we may get a sell off on the jobs report, but i think it is very unlikely that it ends up being a game changer that changes the trend
we could get something similar to dec 4 job report, but i really don't know
as "always" a gap up on the job report is a sell and gap down a buy
Fib came and said that it takes x number of months for the markets to respond [and I presume return to trend growth] so that it supports the equities even higher. He is referring the compounding effect in the economy of the money multiplier of their printing. I just responded that in order for that theory to work, we needed to have very strong jobs growth by now.
The initial moves in the markets are not connected since it is mainly driven by the central planning and all of that, but none of these would work unless you get the appropriate economic reaction over time for the trend growth with low inflation...
BTW, if I get a good return on tomorrow's trade, this is fine. If not, it has little to do immediately about the jobs' report anyway. I just took the trade based on the rally on negative volume as I said above...
Edited by arbman, 07 January 2010 - 04:32 PM.
#18
Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:45 PM
I have no idea what you're talking about. I'm only trying to convey to you that you're looking at the markets with a historic customary eye. But if you believe this to be an insult, fine...I will refrain from posting directly to you, but this doesn't mean that I won't have an idea to share in any thread in which you may be a part of.Fib, please do not go back to the insult mode again. OR DO NOT POST EVER AGAIN IN MY THREADS I DO NOT NEED YOUR INSULTS.
I am on your side sir. I know what's going on (we ALL know what's going on) and I don't like it either.
But technically speaking, nothing really matters right now that is deemed as "fundamental reality".
Take a deep breath and relax, and as I said previously, I wish you good skill on the trade.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
Technical Watch Subscriptions
#19
Posted 07 January 2010 - 04:49 PM
Reality has little comprehension to someone who is on crystal meth and keeps getting a continuous fix.
I honestly took this personally, I am very sorry... I guess you meant the economy...
(btw, I meant to say I just took the trade based on the negative breadth for most of the day)
Edited by arbman, 07 January 2010 - 04:52 PM.
#20
Posted 07 January 2010 - 05:11 PM