33 replies to this topic

[Islander]

If you are trading "tops" or turns alone you are flying blind. There are a host of indicators that can be helpful, but never sure. As for LM, he was gifted, but not infallible. Our trading skills are fitted to our individual temperament. I am a plunger by nature until my account runs low, then I am something else. Islander

[TMN]

I recognize the ODR example I have show is not the clearest (sorry too quick)... I hope the point itself is still clear

is shanghai on the 4th of March 2010 a clear example?

or like brazil on friday?

Hey maxster... I took a look at Brazil from last friday with the EWZ... I was missing something from my definition (sorry)... The low should also be lower than the previous day's low... So last friday's Brazil movement falls short on that criteria... Also, you probably want to have something more defined if you're going to call it a one day reversal (like in the example)... In addition, like any movement, abnormal volume helps in identification...

souelle

bovespa cash session made a new low..

[souelle6]

If you are trading "tops" or turns alone you are flying blind.

There are a host of indicators that can be helpful, but never sure.

As for LM, he was gifted, but not infallible.

Our trading skills are fitted to our individual temperament. I am a plunger by nature until my account runs low, then I am something else.

Islander

Agreed... for me the most underlying characteristic I have found to my success has been flexibility

[souelle6]

We are talking the good old bearish engulfing, right?
Candlesticks may be merged, or one can use a 2 day chart. Will take some uncharacteristic down tomorrow to happen. See 'ya at 4.

Indeed we are... Right now I'm trading options on the long side in CaD financials, Cad dollars and Europe up and down... hopefully some more juicy trades emerge next week... Last week was fun

souelle

Edited by souelle6, 14 March 2010 - 01:15 PM.

[IYB]

... Livermore once owned over 90% of the cotton in the U.S simply through trading his standard line and building it... Many of his "techniques" are not back-testtable most of it was his intuition... I still don't know how we got on the topic of whether livermore's techniques worked... To reiterate for the third time now... I was only using his definitions as they were the oldest I could find and the value was in the timelessness of these definitions... Anyways

Souelle, as a side point to your discussion here, fwiw, I've spent a lifetime studying the methods of every successful trader I've ever encountered, famous or not, and I conclude that Livermore was the best who ever lived. Period. His mistakes were not mistakes with his methods - in fact they were the opposite, they were a direct result of those times he let emotions, primarily impatience, overrule his methods and strayed from them......and he'd be the very first to admit that, and he did so publicly. He suffered from clinical depression for which there was no viable treatment in his day, and many like to point to that as evidence that he was flawed. And guess what? He was. But who among us is not? Anyhow, carry on....

Edited by IYB, 14 March 2010 - 01:20 PM.

[souelle6]

... Livermore once owned over 90% of the cotton in the U.S simply through trading his standard line and building it... Many of his "techniques" are not back-testtable most of it was his intuition... I still don't know how we got on the topic of whether livermore's techniques worked... To reiterate for the third time now... I was only using his definitions as they were the oldest I could find and the value was in the timelessness of these definitions... Anyways

Souelle, as a side point to your discussion here, fwiw, I've spent a lifetime studying the methods of every successful trader I've ever encountered, famous or not, and I conclude that Livermore was the best who ever lived. Period. His mistakes were not mistakes with his methods - in fact they were the opposite, they were a direct result of those times he let emotions, primarily impatience, overrule his methods and strayed from them. He suffered from clinical depression for which there was no viable treatment in his day, and many like to point to that as evidence that he was flawed. And guess what? He was. But who among us is not? Anyhow, carry on....

IYB I didn't want to get into this too much as I think it caused Porshe to deviate from my original point but I entirely agree with you... I'm somewhat addicted to stories of traders myself and if I was to say I have a trading idol (definitely not life)he is it.... I learnt more when I was young learning "How to Trade in Stocks" than anything else I have read since... I think I'm reiterating your point in saying that anytime he went broke he was clearly in violation of one of his own rules... Those who have studied him and have still concluded the market had something to do with his eventual suicide have believe more that he had lost the fun in the market as he had seen it all... But that's all... speculation

souelle

Edited by souelle6, 14 March 2010 - 01:29 PM.

[souelle6]

There is a good chance 1150 would be taken out swiftly next week to 1100 but the top on LT maynot be insight. If you noticed many 'tops' were swiftly taken out be 50 spx points if they don't clear this round only to make a new high! just as swiftly.

I am short not for this function of a double top or whatever top, but I know the big players are short and I don't want to fight them. They can be wrong but trading on their side gives you a higher chance of winning.

On this... If big players are already short... They have their shorts in, no? Could you clarify the reasoning behind this? Are you expecting them to get shorter? I understand if you know institutions will be selling but if they are already have a lot of their shorts in, how much more effect could they have on the market?

Just wondering,

Souelle

[Gary Smith]

Have to say something contrary here. Livermore seems revered on this board as well he should be. Yet this board seems to be about as anti-Livermore as it gets when it comes to implementing his trading principles. You be the judge. Here are some of his quotes. "You never grow rich taking a 4 point profit in a bull market". "Disgarding the big swing and trying to jump in and out was fatal to me. Nobody can catch all the fluctuations." "When I am bearish and I sell a stock, each sale must be at a lower level than the previous sale. When I am buying the reverse is true." "Of all the speculative blunders there are few greater than trying to average a losing game." "Timid people don't like to buy stocks at record highs." "Remember that stocks are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling." "When prices are in a narrow range don't anticiapte the next big price movement." Most important of all was his advice on sitting tight when you are in a winning position. "It never was my thinking that made the money for me but my sitting".... Because as he said "But it is only afer a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make the big money." Livermore could be in a winning position and see an adverse move coming against his position but still sit tight. "I can sit without a twinge of impatience. I can see a setback without being shaken....." "You must not permit yourself set opinions. Never disregard the message of the tape." The most important thing I learned from the likes of Livermore and Darvas is all that counts is price and *only* price. I would be looking at a very, very bleak retirement had I not trashed and thrown out all the predictive tools be they oscillators, indicators, volume, waves, cycles, etc., etc, and focused solely on price. Thank you Mr. Livermore and Mr. Darvas.

[souelle6]

The most important thing I learned from the likes of Livermore and Darvas is all that counts is price and *only* price. I would be looking at a very, very bleak retirement had I not trashed and thrown out all the predictive tools be they oscillators, indicators, volume, waves, cycles, etc., etc, and focused solely on price. Thank you Mr. Livermore and Mr. Darvas.

I totally agree with this point Gary... This is why, if you look at my posts you will notice the charts I post do not have any M.As, MACDs, RSIs etc... Only price and sometimes volume for me...

souelle

[porsche911sg]

There is a good chance 1150 would be taken out swiftly next week to 1100 but the top on LT maynot be insight. If you noticed many 'tops' were swiftly taken out be 50 spx points if they don't clear this round only to make a new high! just as swiftly.

I am short not for this function of a double top or whatever top, but I know the big players are short and I don't want to fight them. They can be wrong but trading on their side gives you a higher chance of winning.

On this... If big players are already short... They have their shorts in, no? Could you clarify the reasoning behind this? Are you expecting them to get shorter? I understand if you know institutions will be selling but if they are already have a lot of their shorts in, how much more effect could they have on the market?

Just wondering,

Souelle

The added shorts during this rally, if the hisoiry has any gauge look to what happen in Jan.

I am not anti-livermore.

I think his pivot point technique is great but other stuffs may or may not be good.