37 replies to this topic

[inamosa]

2 or 3... Because it seems probable to me that the cyclical bull is over, I'm going to side with the bears and say 2

[PUGridiron]

I have the July 1st, 2010 low of 1010.91 as the P2 bottom (called it on Friday July 2nd) and have the count headed to 1250 to 1300 by Dec 2010. So option #4 it is.

PUG
PUG Stock Market Analysis LLC

[manuj]

I will go with no. 2

Edited by manuj, 07 July 2010 - 11:43 PM.

[SemiBizz]

There's really no need to guess here... The market is going to tell us... If the SPX climbs out of the hole it is in here in this range under 1065 and maintains it, we can have a little rally... HOWEVER... Here are three different charts that illustrate what will happen to SPX should it be unable to climb and maintain 1065... One is a weekly chart showing the Lehman Bros Crash to date, Sept/Oct 2001 (911), Sept/Oct 1998 (Asian Contagion). It it can't hold these levels and reverses again, it has 940 written all over it...

[humbled]

I am going with 4. My main reason being that nobody seems to believe it technically probable. On the fundamental side, we all expect bad company performance and projections in the coming weeks. Double dip surely coming. What if it aint? Or it's delayed? I'm not backing this up with any long-term money, other than being long FAS for the night.

[beta]

OK, I'm game -- Door #1.

Edited by beta, 08 July 2010 - 12:08 AM.

[goldswinger]

There's always someone who would claim. I (was the only one who ) predicted the top in 2000, 2007, 1987 et al. Just for fun, let's see how many of you get a medium term projection right. No Ifs and Buts allowed. The options are:

1) We topped out today. The sucker is done and it was a classic bear market squeeze. Short the crap out of it. We are headed for new lows.

2) We may have slightly more upside to the 1070-1090 area. But that would be a gift from the bear godz. We are headed for new lows from there.

3) We may see some pullback near term (or not), but we have started a multi-week rally which should take us above 1100, but not to new recovery highs above SPX 1220. We won't see new lows for a few weeks.

4) To the moon baby ! New highs above 1220 is a given.

Roll your dice. Let's see how many of you get it right. Like Yogi Berra says, "It's difficult to predict, especially the future"


I will go with option 3.

Based on the state of all the daily indicators I look at, I have to go with option 3 but I am prepared for a U turn in the next couple of days if in fact we reverse before 1090. We may just go back to the lows and then back up again ( option 2 with an ABC 2 week correction as explained below).

We could in fact do a two weeks or so ABC to correct the drop from 1130 to 1003. So by now we could be starting c of A having finished b of A yesterday. Then we would do B down to the lows and then a C up to about 1090 befeore the pluge to 900+- levels..........................

Markets spend only a small fraction of the time in impulsive moves, all other moves up and down are corrective and that's the basis for my thesis here.

GS.

[NAV]

We could in fact do a two weeks or so ABC to correct the drop from 1130 to 1003. So by now we could be starting c of A having finished b of A yesterday. Then we would do B down to the lows and then a C up to about 1090 befeore the pluge to 900+- levels..........................


GS.

That's the scenario i have in mind too, an A-B-C rally to SPX 1000-1010. Since 1090 is a formidable resistance, a fake poke over 1000+ would get the bearish faith tested, before the next leg down.

[dcengr]

technically, we didn't drop below 20%, one metric of saying 'bear is in'. So room for new highs still possible. But I tend to think not.

[goldswinger]

We could in fact do a two weeks or so ABC to correct the drop from 1130 to 1003. So by now we could be starting c of A having finished b of A yesterday. Then we would do B down to the lows and then a C up to about 1090 befeore the pluge to 900+- levels..........................


GS.

That's the scenario i have in mind too, an A-B-C rally to SPX 1000-1010. Since 1090 is a formidable resistance, a fake poke over 1000+ would get the bearish faith tested, before the next leg down.

NAV, you mean a fake poke over 1100 not 1000

There is two ways to do that, one is by continuing this c wave up and then plunge to new lows right away.......I don't favor this as most daily indcators MCO's and Summation are starting to show buy signals......therefore we come down towards the bottom but no new lows, just a retest but not necessarily as a B wave does not have to come all the way down there. Then up in a sharp C wave...... and plunge....

To me that's what makes the most sense, but sense sometimes is missing here .....

GS.