27 replies to this topic

[Islander]

[SilentOne]

Bonds have topped for now. No doubt money will flee into dividend paying stocks in the near term. Risk on. Risk off.

http://www.traders-t...?...=122982&hl=

cheers,

john

[beta]

TBT 60-min breakout --- looks like a rockstar in the making. Great 8/27 call, John.

[Architect]

Maybe so (toped out) But, it has not yet broken the trend line. And there is a reason why bond is shooting for the stars. I would not be so certain...

[SilentOne]

Bonds got overdone. Combine it with an 80 week Hurst cycle low for stocks and I just don't want to be there. Bonds have a larger cycle low due in the first quarter next year so they can trade sideways to down from here. The monthly chart here suggests the top is in for now.

I hold some corporate paper and Cdn bank preferreds, so a hedge here with an inverse bond ETF was timely. Managing risk ...

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 03 September 2010 - 11:52 AM.

[Gary Smith]

Meanwhile, junk bonds closed but a mere 2/10 of 1% off historical highs yesterday and could well make new all time highs today. The refusal of junk bonds to buckle during the August rout in stocks should have been a tell for the equity bears.

[NAV]

Meanwhile, junk bonds closed but a mere 2/10 of 1% off historical highs yesterday and could well make new all time highs today. The refusal of junk bonds to buckle during the August rout in stocks should have been a tell for the equity bears.

Gary,

You come and tell us that after a 70 point rally. 20/20 hindsight.

SilentOne and Mr Dev who were two of them, who hinted of us a potential upmove, in a timely fashion.

[Gary Smith]

Meanwhile, junk bonds closed but a mere 2/10 of 1% off historical highs yesterday and could well make new all time highs today. The refusal of junk bonds to buckle during the August rout in stocks should have been a tell for the equity bears.

Gary,

You come and tell us that after a 70 point rally. 20/20 hindsight.

SilentOne and Mr Dev who were two of them, who hinted of us a potential upmove, in a timely fashion.

I haven't posted here since May. But I have a long posting history about junk bonds and their relation to trend changes in the stock market, especially when there is a positive divergence in favor of junk. I gave up because no one seemed to care or pay any attention so why even bother.

[SilentOne]

Meanwhile, junk bonds closed but a mere 2/10 of 1% off historical highs yesterday and could well make new all time highs today. The refusal of junk bonds to buckle during the August rout in stocks should have been a tell for the equity bears.

Gary,

You come and tell us that after a 70 point rally. 20/20 hindsight.

SilentOne and Mr Dev who were two of them, who hinted of us a potential upmove, in a timely fashion.

I haven't posted here since May. But I have a long posting history about junk bonds and their relation to trend changes in the stock market, especially when there is a positive divergence in favor of junk. I gave up because no one seemed to care or pay any attention so why even bother.

Thanks Gary. I admit that Junk Bonds are rarely on my radar. But you are right they were a tell this summer. And they could be a very important signpost to confirm we are in a major topping pattern in equities.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 03 September 2010 - 12:26 PM.

[ds]

Gary Smith quote - "I haven't posted here since May. But I have a long posting history about junk bonds and their relation to trend changes in the stock market, especially when there is a positive divergence in favor of junk. I gave up because no one seemed to care or pay any attention so why even bother." It seems about 1300 traders view this site on a daily basis. Few post any responses. I, myself, have been here since '02 and have made few posts. The point being that many are reading your posts and finding them valuble, they're just not openly applauding. In my limited posts, I have written several times about junk bonds and I have cited you several times.