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#11 NAV

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 09:51 AM

I believe Monday would be a highly likely day for any major pullback to happen (ok I'm tempted to say crash)

Impossible...can't be done.

Fib


By saying a crash is impossible you are putting yourself in that same wrong minority who say a crash is a certainty here. It's the unpredictable nature of the crash that causes it in the first place. You did not predict the crash in May which happened under the simlilar conditions of liquidity. So i am not sure what gives you the false confidence to negate another occurence with such certainity. Never say never.

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#12 TechMan

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 09:53 AM

I entered a wager on short @ the closing minutes on NQ 2103. As mention previously, I believe Monday would be a highly likely day for any major pullback to happen (ok I'm tempted to say crash). My opinion is based on G20 talks. Unless they report of chairs being thrown at each other during the meeting...

Your trades have been right on the money lately. I wouldn’t argue with someone that has the hot hand.

I believe that the Forex is where the epic center is. Currency is the tail that’s wagging the dog right now. Yes, yes, if the dog was smart… Anyway, this led to debate of the validity of technical indicators during a period like this.

According to Reuters, there was pressure on the United States on quantitative easing that has flooded the banking sector and pushed hot money into emerging markets. The communiqué stressed the responsibility of countries with reserve currencies, i.e. the United States, to be "vigilant against excess volatility and disorderly". Countries such as Germany publicly criticized U.S. policy, suggesting tensions remain.

According to my Asia source, one of the major concerns in Asia is the “hot money” (aka short-term speculative capital inflow) that’s currently flooding their systems. Governments in these emerging markets have been monitoring this very closely; they are under tremendous pressure from their legislators to prevent another Asia financial crisis similar to that of the 1990s.

Under the above mentioned premise, anything’s possible.

#13 fib_1618

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 10:23 AM

By saying a crash is impossible you are putting yourself in that same wrong minority who say a crash is a certainty here.

My comment was specifically applied to Melon's quote for Monday, and I have many pieces of analytical evidence to support my statement unlike those who beat a constant drum of woe and misfortune without one single piece of technical corroboration. I stand by it.

It's the unpredictable nature of the crash that causes it in the first place.

No...it isn't...and you know better than that.

You did not predict the crash in May which happened under the similar conditions of liquidity.

No, I didn't. The conditions today may look similar, but there are many marked differences between now and then (one of which I showed above).

So i am not sure what gives you the false confidence to negate another occurrence with such certainty.

On the other hand, I am not sure what gives you the false confidence that there's even a chance to that it can happen.

Never say never.

I didn't say "never"...I just said it was "Impossible...can't be done" given the current internal dynamics of the market.

If anyone would like to provide analytical technical evidence to the contrary I'm always open to it.

Fib

Better to ignore me than abhor me.

Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it. - Benjamin Franklin

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#14 Tor

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 10:45 AM

I believe Monday would be a highly likely day for any major pullback to happen (ok I'm tempted to say crash)

Impossible...can't be done.

Fib


By saying a crash is impossible you are putting yourself in that same wrong minority who say a crash is a certainty here. It's the unpredictable nature of the crash that causes it in the first place. You did not predict the crash in May which happened under the simlilar conditions of liquidity. So i am not sure what gives you the false confidence to negate another occurence with such certainity. Never say never.



NAV there is no chance of a "crash" on Monday. Look at the internals. Look at the liquidity look at the trend.

How anyone can call a crash seems totally obsurd to me.

There are quite a few signs which fortell a crash, most of which fail, and become false. I dont see any of those signs here.

I am long and strong and believe we are melting up.

I too have stops in place

I bid you good day.
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#15 TechMan

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 10:47 AM

If anyone would like to provide analytical technical evidence to the contrary I'm always open to it.

Fib

Fib – What do you think of these favorite indicators of yours?

1) NYSI has declined 4 days in a row.
2) NYMO has made lower high and lower low since Sep. 13.
3) NYSE New Highs-New Lows sideways since beginning of Sep. while price advances.

Also, take a look at the ROC (Rate of Change) on:

NYA200R
NYA150R
NYA50R

#16 NAV

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 10:58 AM

unlike those who beat a constant drum of woe and misfortune without one single piece of technical corroboration


Well i would never put you in that category. You know that. You technical work is well respected.

On the other hand, I am not sure what gives you the false confidence that there's even a chance to that it can happen.


Where did i say it can happen ? Well, i am not even bearish on SPX yet, let alone predicting a crash. My message was "Be open minded". Crashes are unpreditable events and i stand by that. That unpredictability has only increased in the recent years with the enormous leverage employed in the markets combined with a deadly mix of robot trading. We are treading in unchartered territory.

If anyone would like to provide analytical technical evidence to the contrary I'm always open to it.


There was no technical evidence based on the "Liquidity premise" in favor of May crash. So an assertion that you have categorical (with the use of word impossible) technical evidence against a crash, based on the liquidity conditions, is inconsistent. And asking anyone to provide evidence to the contrary is akin to asking "Provide evidence that ghost do not exist". The very lack of anyone's ability to not provide evidence does not prove the existence of the ghost.

Edited by NAV, 23 October 2010 - 11:02 AM.

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#17 relax

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 11:03 AM

nav, i think fib is saying that liquidity may be similar to april, but is was in a weakening pattern back in april, a pattern which is yet to show up in very simple terms, the crash in may came from sell signals, which are not present now

#18 Tor

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 11:07 AM

nav, i think fib is saying that liquidity may be similar to april, but is was in a weakening pattern back in april, a pattern which is yet to show up

in very simple terms, the crash in may came from sell signals, which are not present now



the most the bears can hope for is a correction. But to my mind the corrections are getting shorter and shallower as the market is getting stronger as the imbalance is getting more favourable.
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#19 NAV

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 11:18 AM

nav, i think fib is saying that liquidity may be similar to april, but is was in a weakening pattern back in april, a pattern which is yet to show up

in very simple terms, the crash in may came from sell signals, which are not present now


Well, just before the flash crash, there was a ledge developing on the the NYSE summation and the NYSE MCO has a pattern of lower highs. We have a similar configuration today, if that's what you refer to as weakening pattern. If not, specifically define what you mean by a weakening pattern.

Anyway, study the charts of last 100 years and tell me if you find a single instance where a liquidity configuration as it existed in May produced a crash even once. That negates the argument that liquidity conditions can be used as a gauge to predict crashes. Case closed !

Edited by NAV, 23 October 2010 - 11:19 AM.

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#20 melonseed

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Posted 23 October 2010 - 12:37 PM

Ok I am the culprit that mentioned the term "crash". All of us know crashes are hard to predict, at some point pointless to predict since their occurrence is almost randomly timed and acted by bodies out of our trading boundaries. What i was trying to say it is a good chance we have topped based on a few observation. The IT divergence, NDX historical high records and IMHO I am very convinced the recent run up was currency driven and any agreement struck to please nations affected by the depreciating USD should reverse the entire situation. I definitely don't agree with the term "impossible" or "sure" to any direction or occurrence in the market. *to Fibs (genuine question) is just to prevent my question being misinterpreted as a challenge or patronizing in any way.
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