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#21 dharma

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Posted 21 April 2011 - 12:31 PM

meanwhile the miners are stuck in the mud

yes they are! so?!??!?!
and gold is stuck in a tr>
what do i ?
how do i make money.
do i sit afraid to make a move, or does consolidations end the same way that they came into the consolidation?????
dharma

#22 johngeorge

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Posted 21 April 2011 - 05:22 PM

21 April 2011 Jesse's Café Américain

What I Think the Fluctuations and Trends In the Comex Silver Inventory Mean

"I am not talking about the specifics, about which individual holder of bullion changed the status of a very large portion of the remaining registered silver inventory at the Comex, and what their particular motivation might have been. I imagine that the details of that transaction and its short term intent will become known at some point. I am not even sure yet whether it is bullish or bearish. It could be part of a short term trading gambit tied in with the coming option expiration.

I wanted to step back and get the significance of this in the 'big picture.' So I looked at the interactive Comex silver inventory chart over at 24hourgold to see what the big withdrawal from the registered ounces looked like in context. The chart goes back to middle 2008.

Several things stand out for me. First, there are definitely big declines in the past, certainly on the order of the most recent decline this week.

There is one significant difference. Two of the biggest declines occurred at year end, and are indicated on this chart as circles.

There are another two large declines in inventory comparable to this week in April time frames, marked on the chart by rectangles.

So its just a normal thing, right?

Not really. The prior two declines in April occurred after significant builds in inventory from the first of the year. This year that simply did not happen. There was no bounce.

For me the most significant aspect of the chart is the steady decline in inventory over the past three years, stepwise at times, but getting dangerously low compared to the open interest in the futures market which that inventory supports which continues to increase. That is known in the trade as 'leverage.'

I am sure that the exchange principals will pass along rumours about a short squeeze and an attempted market corner, and try to paint this as some insidious anomaly. Yes there are speculators becoming involved, those who see what is happening. As the British government attempted to hold the pound to an artificial value, and was hammered down by traders, famously George Soros but primarily the faceless acting through the Swiss, so too the metals manipulation by the Anglo-American banking cartel is staggered, and is probably going to go down hard, capitulate with a revaluation and partial disclosure, and move on from there. I think the episode of cheap gold and silver is over, until a new cycle of money begins.

I prefer to view it as the natural outcome of a long term manipulated market, in which artificial shortages have been introduced by protracted interference. If you artificially depress the price of most things for a long enough period, in a market based system you will introduce underinvestment and systemic shortfalls that will only be corrected by either higher prices and investment in production, sometimes with long lead times, and/or with 'rationing' either overtly, or through public relations campaigns that seek to discourage demand from a group of the people while other segments take the remaining supply.

They keep warning about bubbles, and silver 'correcting.' Well, the establishment pundits have no credibility on noticing bubbles, that is for certain. Their hypocrisy knows no bounds.

And what this trend seems to be implying is that silver is already correcting, higher, back to its real long term trend after decades of under performance due to artificial constructions and leverage.

Posted Image

The Comex is headed for a default unless they can secure a large new supply of silver and increase their inventories. Or allow the price to climb higher until the market finally clears and existing supply re-enters the market. Where will that be? From the looks of things, higher, probably where the trend price with inflation would have been, barring sufficient new investment in production. When flagrantly betrayed, the market can be a harsh mistress.

And the same thing is happening, in relative slow motion, in the gold market which was the real point of this all along. But the difference is that in the gold market the bullion banks have been able to turn to the central banks for protection and supply over many years, drawing down their sovereign inventories and masking it at times with accounting tricks. That is, until that trend changed a few years ago, and the central banks became net buyers after twenty five years of selling, motivated primarily by the BRICs and the much abused and crumbling dollar reserve currency arrangement.

I wonder if the bankers can find a willing seller, a new source of silver. And at what price. And with what will they offer payment, what depreciating paper promise?

Someone asked me again today, have you ever seen a market go up like this without a correction? Well, of course not. Nothing ever goes straight up. They are asking the question to get the answer they want, ie. consolation for an existing opinion. The real questions to ask are WHY something is going higher, and to think about how much it might correct, and what it will do after that. Saying something will go down after it goes up is not an investment strategy, it is a sucker play. People go broke following these faux contrarian plays.

Yes, I am cautious on silver in the short term, and yesterday I did take all my trading positions off the table, without touching long term positions. Let that action speak for itself, within the context of my goals and needs. And I am especially cautious now in most US markets because of lax regulation. But I liked and respected the perspective Jim Rogers had to offer. And yet he will be the first to tell you he does not know the future, and neither do I. But I think it is going to take a liquidy panic selloff in broad assets to break the silver bull. I hope it does not go parabolic and at least consolidates here somewhere, to set up a more orderly appreciation such as is happening in gold.

But I am not assuming that these are normal market conditions. I think that the financial engineers and their bankers are becoming very concerned, and even afraid, for good reasons. What has been hidden will be revealed, what has been whispered will be shouted from the rooftops. They will spin stories to hide it, and probably engage in scapegoating, blaming Islam or China or high profile speculators like Soros, or some other group for what is in reality the direct result of their perfidy.

As we have seen in the past three years, the markets have been made a sham, riddled with fraud, puffed up but lacking substance. And in each case there is a violent correction that exposes the graft and corruption. And this is ongoing, because as William K. Black recently said, they have 'left the felons in charge of the system for the sake of stability.'

But at the end of the day, the result remains the same, no matter how they try to shift the blame and the pain.

As the Americans like to say, 'the jig is up.'

"They have sown the wind, and will reap the whirlwind. Their stalks of grain wither and produce nothing to eat. And even if there is any grain left, foreigners will consume it." Hosea 8:7
Peace
johngeorge

#23 dharma

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Posted 22 April 2011 - 10:02 AM

its a long weekend. some thoughts. tuesday is options expiration , i am sure the powers that be would like to flatline gold @1500 . puts /calls all lose. the bank wins china will , imo , @some point cut the yuan from the dollar. which will not be positive for the buck then we have the fed this week. those looking for the burnack to metamorphosis into volker will be disappointed it would not surprise me in the least if gold corrected to 1460. this band of resistance here is stiff, i see last night it gold to the upper reach-1513. silver on the hand , someone/entity is in trouble. it keeps motoring higher. it corrects i buy. it holds in here, i hold. before this leg is over, i fully expect higher prices. lots to worry about, bulls climb a wall of worry. dharma

Edited by dharma, 22 April 2011 - 10:09 AM.


#24 stubaby

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Posted 22 April 2011 - 06:00 PM

GDX targets:

http://stockcharts.c...9302&r=1960.png

stubaby :lol:
GOOD LUCK - the 'Galloping Gertie' syndrom about to hit the US and World Financial Markets over the next 2 Years - Batton down the hatches! Galloping Gertie - Public StockCharts List

#25 mss

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Posted 22 April 2011 - 07:26 PM

Silver keeps chugging along. Looks like there is a good chance it will top above $50. The question is, by how much?

I'm watching the Dollar here and I don't think you will see any significant pressure on the metals until the Dollar ends its decline and starts a bear market rally. I think we are still weeks away from that happening.

Let's think round number possibilities: gold to just above $1600? Dollar to just below 70? Silver to just above...? $60?

Anyway, I think watching the Dollar closely will help one time the top - as well as keeping track of the divergences between gold and silver as well as their stocks.

We will have the top of this rally before the end of June, and a larger than usual secular bull market correction thereafter - I think it's almost certain. Just don't know exactly when or where. I continue to hold and watch in the meantime, ignoring the short-term dips as usual (that's for the n00bs) and am now seriously wondering if we've entered the runaway phase of this rally already.

:)
I really don't like to get into number projections were several have posted their thoughts.

But I have a couple to throw into the ring and if we seek and average from all posted we then have a range with the HIGH-MEAN-LOW then a nice meaningless chart can be posted to see who got the closest.

my projections FWIW GOLD=1608.93, SILVER=54.64

Best to all,
mss


Well we are getting close hold on----- :D
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#26 johngeorge

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Posted 23 April 2011 - 08:15 AM

Richard Russell - The Great Gold Tsunami Lies Ahead April 21, 2011
Peace
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#27 dharma

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Posted 23 April 2011 - 10:32 AM

this week saw a # of astrological events. my short term(i dont talk about this one usually) hui cycle tops on friday. i think this week has the potential for some mojo. merriman has an interesting piece on the dollar on the cover page of his site the dollar could rally @some point. what will that mean for the metals generally not a good sign, however the dollar and gold both rallied for most of 06. dharma

#28 stubaby

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Posted 23 April 2011 - 01:52 PM

Great US Dollar Long-Term Chart:

Jesse's Cafe Americain
GOOD LUCK - the 'Galloping Gertie' syndrom about to hit the US and World Financial Markets over the next 2 Years - Batton down the hatches! Galloping Gertie - Public StockCharts List

#29 inamosa

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Posted 24 April 2011 - 08:57 PM

Thought I'd share this:

This chart shows prior multi-month rallies similar to the current one in silver off the late Jan. low. Goes back 35+ years. Source of chart is Gann Global. The $55-62.50 bit and the highlighting is mine.

As I've mentioned, I do anticipate a 35-55% correction in silver following the top that I'm expecting within (most probably) 5-8 weeks.

Posted Image
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#30 johngeorge

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Posted 24 April 2011 - 10:08 PM

alysomji

Great chart! Thanks for sharing. I just took a look at spot silver and it is now @ $ 47.85. Seems like it has wings and getting ever closer to those projections.
Peace
johngeorge