37 replies to this topic

[DrSP]

Thanks, Don. I'll wait, no hurries here.

[arbman]

Don, I do not forecast we will see a new recovery (or 52 wk) high in the next 12 months, this makes it a bear market for me as it opens the door for further lower prices even if we see a real good bounce in the next 2 months... To me, it will be only a bear market rally. I may change my opinion, of course, but my long term projections do not see a new high for 2012 into 2013, but a lower low at some point during this time interval. This condition may change if the market drops to low 1000s in spring and the downside conditions change etc, etc... But currently the longer term downside is more likely than LT upside (6 mos or more). OTOH, upside is more likely than downside in the next 2-3 months or intermediate term... Have a great weekend all...

[arbman]

Correction in the first line:

I forecast we will not see a new recovery (or 52 wk) high in the next 12 months...

Edited by arbman, 16 September 2011 - 08:02 PM.

[senorBS]

NDX closes above importante moving avegaes as does Retail index by a mile, both also well above .618 Fibo retracements of the declines from this years highs, now why is this happening? an aberration? Senor's fertile imagination and senile rantings? or just bullish leading indicators that no one wants to acknowledge? I thought the consumer was dead? yet retalil index less that 5% from all-time highs. Too may Marg's for Senor perhaps? Have a bueno weekend everyone, that includes bulls and bears! Senor

[Dex]

NDX closes above importante moving avegaes as does Retail index by a mile, both also well above .618 Fibo retracements of the declines from this years highs, now why is this happening? an aberration? Senor's fertile imagination and senile rantings? or just bullish leading indicators that no one wants to acknowledge? I thought the consumer was dead? yet retalil index less that 5% from all-time highs. Too may Marg's for Senor perhaps? Have a bueno weekend everyone, that includes bulls and bears!

Senor

http://www.cnbc.com/...y...|&par=yahoo

"I call it the data cake," Hastings said. "There are layers and layers of information" that retailers are using to react to swings in consumer spending and attitudes.

This is the kind of intelligence that enables Macy's [M 27.74 0.26 (+0.95%) ] to customize its inventory based on the needs of the local market. Making sure, for example, that stores still have warmer clothing when a cold spell lasts longer than it should, or bring in more shorts if the temperatures heat up.

And it is this type of technology that helps protect profit margins when consumer spending turns sluggish.

That's not to say there won't be corrections. In fact, Hastings suspects there is a chance there could be one in September if back-to-school spending doesn't measure up in some areas.

[IYB]

DrSP, it is as bearish as it gets, but then again, even though further bounce is warranted, the bears are right in a bear market....

Hi Arb- you keep calling this a "bear market". How or why do you arrive at that label/classification? Many TIA's, as you know that I am "all about context". Don

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1996-01-28&en=(today)&i=p57004796817&a=181755078&r=57.png

Don, I do not forecast we will see a new recovery (or 52 wk) high in the next 12 months, this makes it a bear market for me as it opens the door for further lower prices even if we see a real good bounce in the next 2 months... To me, it will be only a bear market rally.

I may change my opinion, of course, but my long term projections do not see a new high for 2012 into 2013, but a lower low at some point during this time interval. This condition may change if the market drops to low 1000s in spring and the downside conditions change etc, etc... But currently the longer term downside is more likely than LT upside (6 mos or more). OTOH, upside is more likely than downside in the next 2-3 months or intermediate term...

Have a great weekend all...

Arb- as one who is an absolute stickler on the belief that "CONTEXT IS EVERYTHING", my problem here is that you are using subjective {opinion as you say} expectations to decide what the context is (bull or bear) -- then applying bear market rules based on that subjective expectation (opinion). But that's just me- I cannot trade unless I am highly confident that I have context correctly pegged. And my objective rules still have the primary cycle as Bull Market.

That being said though, whatever you are doing is working just fine for you - as I've watched you make a series of super trades here! Keep up the great work. {But the context here still is that of primary BULL. }

Very best to you, Don

[MikeyG]

on the long side and turning bearish. Senor remains long and bullish for at least a rally to 11750 give or take a bit, Senor would not be surprised if market rallies norte of year's highs in the upcoming months or early next year. And the fact that Senor is virtually a solo act el Toro actually makes senor feel bueno.

It's also muy interesting to Senor that no one mentions if Naz 100 closes here, near 2302, it will close today above both it's 50 and 200-day moving averages, remember Senor's constant BS about Naz 100 "leading' the way norte - it worked bueno over the past week, does anyone even remotely think this is telling us that other averages might very well do the same thing in the weeks ahead? or is the vast majority just bearish and ignoring anything possibly bullish?

Some BS to think about


Senor

You have some company, I'm still long from the 1150 area...

It's quite possible spx tests the 200 sma...

[senorBS]

DrSP, it is as bearish as it gets, but then again, even though further bounce is warranted, the bears are right in a bear market....

Hi Arb- you keep calling this a "bear market". How or why do you arrive at that label/classification? Many TIA's, as you know that I am "all about context". Don

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1996-01-28&en=(today)&i=p57004796817&a=181755078&r=57.png

Don, I do not forecast we will see a new recovery (or 52 wk) high in the next 12 months, this makes it a bear market for me as it opens the door for further lower prices even if we see a real good bounce in the next 2 months... To me, it will be only a bear market rally.

I may change my opinion, of course, but my long term projections do not see a new high for 2012 into 2013, but a lower low at some point during this time interval. This condition may change if the market drops to low 1000s in spring and the downside conditions change etc, etc... But currently the longer term downside is more likely than LT upside (6 mos or more). OTOH, upside is more likely than downside in the next 2-3 months or intermediate term...

Have a great weekend all...

Arb- as one who is an absolute stickler on the belief that "CONTEXT IS EVERYTHING", my problem here is that you are using subjective {opinion as you say} expectations to decide what the context is (bull or bear) -- then applying bear market rules based on that subjective expectation (opinion). But that's just me- I cannot trade unless I am highly confident that I have context correctly pegged. And my objective rules still have the primary cycle as Bull Market.

That being said though, whatever you are doing is working just fine for you - as I've watched you make a series of super trades here! Keep up the great work. {But the context here still is that of primary BULL. }

Very best to you, Don

Now here is an amigo who has his ******** together, bravo! Senor Don you are uno smart hombre.

Senor

[arbman]

Don, now wait a minute, I am not making any assumptions.

I have a system that takes in EVERY instrument that trades in these stock, bond, commodity and currency markets and spits out a projection, that's thousands of variables. Yes the contribution from each variable is much different and probably 90% of them are lagging and not important, but we do look at all.

My system says we are in the early stages of a bear market and yes they are trying to save the global finance from the failing debt of many states, but it won't work no matter what kind of shuffling they do. I also see the growth sectors trying to lead over the past week better, but this is exactly where you may get a top after convincing signals kind of show up in a bear market. The commodities hardly sold off during this decline and they will choke that growth rally fairly quickly.

In your monthly chart below, you have the monthly MACD about to cross down, the CCI is about to give up its 0 line. Maybe my system reacts a bit faster than this chart suggests and concluded that this is a bear already, and perhaps it will flip next month into a continuation bull, this is very hard for me to tell yet and I see big big swings that I would not rather buy and hold into them at the moment, but rather trade them...

All I am saying is here, your own chart below is at the borderline bear and if the govts manage to print much more without spiking the commodities --that they are doing everything possible to keep them depressed as we speak, we turn from the edge of the cliff, but so far my system says it won't work.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1996-01-28&en=(today)&i=p57004796817&a=181755078&r=57.png

If the chart above goes sideways for 2 more months, all of the indicators depicted will penetrate into the bear territory per your definitions, or if the equities sell off at the end of this month, it would also produce the same effect quicker. I am just trying to say that the chart above needs to make a decisive U-turn to the upside this month to save its faith from a bear market...

While this is the case, I expect the material and energy sectors to outperform everything else starting next week and get this rally closer to a top, while the bears slowly give up, I do not expect the bears to turn fully bullish as this should be a strong bear market bounce at the moment. We are one step away from terminating this rally and as soon as the sector leadership shifts, the bear speculation tames...

The market needs to clear 1285 or so by the close of the month, I think it has chance most up to 1265 or so, it should turn down afterwards and seal the top, perhaps we get the rally like in 1998, but my system suggests actually that the market will be lower in the last week of September. So, the top should come next week. A weekly close over 1265 is needed for next week at a minimum...

Very Best...

Edited by arbman, 17 September 2011 - 12:03 AM.

[skott]

NDX closes above importante moving avegaes as does Retail index by a mile, both also well above .618 Fibo retracements of the declines from this years highs, now why is this happening? an aberration? Senor's fertile imagination and senile rantings? or just bullish leading indicators that no one wants to acknowledge? I thought the consumer was dead? yet retalil index less that 5% from all-time highs. Too may Marg's for Senor perhaps? Have a bueno weekend everyone, that includes bulls and bears!

Senor

Senor's fertile imagination and senile rantings? or just bullish leading indicators that no one wants to acknowledge?

I can remember a quote "those who ignore Copper will pay the piper" or something to that effect. Is someone ignoring a very bearish indicator or just being very selective when they post?

Edited by skott, 17 September 2011 - 03:24 AM.