294 replies to this topic

[johngeorge]

KWN interviews James Turk Sunday Feb 5, 2012

KWN: Greyerz - Gold Price to Hit $5,000 in 24 Months & Silver $166

Edited by johngeorge, 06 February 2012 - 01:16 PM.

[tria]

The fate of gold rests on this upcoming test of the 1705 "Panic Pivot".

We'll see.

Hopefully by tomorrow whilst in Athens we will have the biggest demonstration ever.
Full Moon makes some people a bit lunatic, so we shall observe with calmness, like dharma does.

-tria
In Athens

[tria]

The fate of gold rests on this upcoming test of the 1705 "Panic Pivot".

We'll see.

Maybe it rests here, who knows....?

http://i.telegraph.c...ce_2100260b.jpg

-tria

[dharma]

tria- good luck, let us know all about the demonstration this conceptually carry down to 1680 , which would be another great buying opportunity. unfortunately , bottoms in bull markets, last longer than 11./2 months. i happen to think that we will continue up for quite a while longer. the market is presenting the opportunity to hit new highs before march is over!? which route it takes remains to be seen. if one has studied behavior of past bull markets. then they know 08 followed by 11 are part of the structure. 75-76 in gold saw it go from 204 -102 a 50% haircut. so corrections that large are the nature of this market . the ndx on the hand , never underwent something like that. gold, has its own nature. dharma cots are not friendly, of course they are delayed, and could change quickly!

[tradermama]

The fate of gold rests on this upcoming test of the 1705 "Panic Pivot".

We'll see.

Hopefully by tomorrow whilst in Athens we will have the biggest demonstration ever.
Full Moon makes some people a bit lunatic, so we shall observe with calmness, like dharma does.

-tria
In Athens

Be safe Tria. Mars in Retrograde is a period that wars show up/a lot of anger/accidents...it ends Apr 14th. Yes, combine that with Full moon the crazies are coming out of the woodwork I'm sure. Let us know how you are doing there.

Take care.

TM

[tradermama]

tria- good luck, let us know all about the demonstration
this conceptually carry down to 1680 , which would be another great buying opportunity.
unfortunately , bottoms in bull markets, last longer than 11./2 months. i happen to think that we will continue up for quite a while longer. the market is presenting the opportunity to hit new highs before march is over!? which route it takes remains to be seen.
if one has studied behavior of past bull markets. then they know 08 followed by 11 are part of the structure. 75-76 in gold saw it go from 204 -102 a 50% haircut. so corrections that large are the nature of this market . the ndx on the hand , never underwent something like that. gold, has its own nature.
dharma
cots are not friendly, of course they are delayed, and could change quickly!

I agree Dharma if 1700 breaks then we watch that square 41 for support. So far, gld has been consolidating for like all day in a narrow range..and low volume...so we shall see...might take one or two more days...might not..
TM

[dharma]

when approaching the markets, one of the 1st things i think about is -85% of the people who put money in the markets , lose it. so the market is designed to separate us from our money. greed and fear come into play @present the parameters are simple , we are in a tr until 1803 gets broken. we have a jobs report come out, coincident w/the time the market is about to have a correction and voila , it takes shape. we had advanced about 240 dollars from the 12/29 low , so a correction is warranted. i used the opportunity to stock my cupboard. i do think this month will have twists and turns. however turning to the charts of gold/silver, they look great. gold broke out of the declinning wedge and is now back testing the breakout. silver is in a big pennant and we still have to test the 36-37 range to test the top of the pennant. the charts indicate to me, higher prices are in store. until we break out , we will shake and bake until the weak hands cough up their positions. and so it goes friday there is indicates of change. nsu has given guidance for a 10% reduction in gold output. well you can find the stock behind the woodshed sporting a 25% haircut. it looks overdone to me. will watch it for a while dharma

Edited by dharma, 07 February 2012 - 11:10 AM.

[Ken]

Personally, I'm really nervous at this point and I'm not sure what to think regarding precious metals in the short term. I think there's possibly much more of a pullback to come. Remember the recent COT report had the commercials selling their long positions and adding to their shorts.

Also, according to Raymond Merriman, Feb 8th is a critical reversal date for currencies. The US dollar is falling hard right now and right here and if it puts in a low today or tomorrow it could really rally big from here which may have a negative impact on precious metals.

But that's not all. Merriman also has a critical reversal date of Feb 10th for US equities. Equities have been moving up off the lows of Oct 4th, 2011 and are in the 18th week of the primary cycle. Primary cycles from lows to lows are typically 13 to 21 weeks in duration. This primary cycle is getting a little long in the tooth for equities to keep rising from here although it's possible the cycle could extend.

However, It would make more sense for US equities to put in a high on Fri, Feb 10th and then begin a 2 week or more decline to put in a primary cycle low around the 20th week or later. Based on cycles the timing is right for a big decline and a critical reversal date is only 3 days away. Combine that with the the Feb 8th critical reversal date of the US dollar and I'm really wondering how this will impact gold and silver which are also due for a major cycle low which has not yet occurred. Gold should at least trade below it's 15 day simple moving average and silver should trade below it's 22 day simple moving average to confirm the major cycle low but that hasn't happened as of yet.

Even from Merriman's website he writes, "This week we may get a dose of reality. Saturn, the planet of hard realities, turns retrograde at 29° Libra on Tuesday, February 7. This cosmic event has coincided with important crests in stock prices several times in the past decade, and it is poised to do the same this time too. Its orb of influence is historically up to 11 days, but in most cases, if a reversal occurs, it is within only 4 trading days."

What has me really concerned is that this is the 3rd and final primary cycle for US equities within the 15.5 month cycle. The last cycle within a larger cycle are always the most bearish so when this decline begins it could possibly be a real big one. Worse yet US equities are in the 3rd and final 15.5 month cycle within the 4 year cycle so I have no idea why everyone is so darn bullish on this board regarding equities. How all of this will affect gold and silver I have no idea.

I believe next week is options week as well. Oscillators are overbought for US equities and I see negative divergences for the RSI (20) on the Dow. I think this is going to end badly for the equity bulls but of course I could be wrong.

[dharma]

Personally, I'm really nervous at this point and I'm not sure what to think regarding precious metals in the short term. I think there's possibly much more of a pullback to come. Remember the recent COT report had the commercials selling their long positions and adding to their shorts.

Also, according to Raymond Merriman, Feb 8th is a critical reversal date for currencies. The US dollar is falling hard right now and right here and if it puts in a low today or tomorrow it could really rally big from here which may have a negative impact on precious metals.

But that's not all. Merriman also has a critical reversal date of Feb 10th for US equities. Equities have been moving up off the lows of Oct 4th, 2011 and are in the 18th week of the primary cycle. Primary cycles from lows to lows are typically 13 to 21 weeks in duration. This primary cycle is getting a little long in the tooth for equities to keep rising from here although it's possible the cycle could extend.

However, It would make more sense for US equities to put in a high on Fri, Feb 10th and then begin a 2 week or more decline to put in a primary cycle low around the 20th week or later. Based on cycles the timing is right for a big decline and a critical reversal date is only 3 days away. Combine that with the the Feb 8th critical reversal date of the US dollar and I'm really wondering how this will impact gold and silver which are also due for a major cycle low which has not yet occurred. Gold should at least trade below it's 15 day simple moving average and silver should trade below it's 22 day simple moving average to confirm the major cycle low but that hasn't happened as of yet.

Even from Merriman's website he writes, "This week we may get a dose of reality. Saturn, the planet of hard realities, turns retrograde at 29° Libra on Tuesday, February 7. This cosmic event has coincided with important crests in stock prices several times in the past decade, and it is poised to do the same this time too. Its orb of influence is historically up to 11 days, but in most cases, if a reversal occurs, it is within only 4 trading days."

What has me really concerned is that this is the 3rd and final primary cycle for US equities within the 15.5 month cycle. The last cycle within a larger cycle are always the most bearish so when this decline begins it could possibly be a real big one. Worse yet US equities are in the 3rd and final 15.5 month cycle within the 4 year cycle so I have no idea why everyone is so darn bullish on this board regarding equities. How all of this will affect gold and silver I have no idea.

I believe next week is options week as well. Oscillators are overbought for US equities and I see negative divergences for the RSI (20) on the Dow. I think this is going to end badly for the equity bulls but of course I could be wrong.

ken, this is a very thoughtful post, not to mention that jupiter goes into a bearish position for equities. and i too saw the cot turn from bullish to bearish very quickly. the commercials dont always get it right, there are times they take a beating, but betting against them is not wise.
equities were bearish , during the last bull market. and i do think they are going to resort to stepped up printing, which for a period will be bullish for equities, but that will be after this correction takes place. my reading of the charts looks quite bullish to me. but then again, i have been wrong before and i could be wrong again. seasonally, is not favorable to mid march. so there are a bunch of factors on both sides of the coin. friday , could be the tell. they never make it easy. its why i find a trend and ride until the parabolic tkes hold, then my riding turns cautious, and then the selling comes in for me. gold is a very bumpy ride. and we very well could experience some bumps in the road till sometime in march. i have influences come in the gold marekt every few days this month.
dharma
richard russell shares some of your concerns ken
http://kingworldnews...nster_Year.html

Edited by dharma, 07 February 2012 - 12:36 PM.

[stubaby]

dharma: WOW! Gold up over 1.5% and Silver up nearly 2% Broads turn positive Miners Flat Caution! stubaby