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QE3 in PROGRESS


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#1 TechMan

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 10:09 AM

I've been wondering whether QE3 has been underway in the name of the Operation Twist. The Yield Curve is a dead giveaway.


First of all, the Fed IS the yield curve.

Now, the SPX suffered a loss of more than 100 points from the day of the announcement of OT (Operation Twist), Sep. 21,2011, through Oct. 3, 2011, at an average loss of 11 points a day. Other things being equal, that's the message from the market to the Fed about OT. However, the operation's working as it's intended up to that point.

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Of course, the Fed gets it. After all, the real mandate of the Fed is to sustain the stock market. And, the yield curve flipped, and the stock market rallied. And, technical indicators rendered useless, as they're mostly oscillators.

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Edited by TechMan, 04 February 2012 - 10:18 AM.


#2 TechMan

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 10:35 AM

Actor, Ben Gazzara dead at 81.

One of my favorites, "Anatomy of a Murder" (1959).

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#3 fib_1618

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:02 AM

technical indicators rendered useless

That would be like saying a SUV caused an accident or killed someone when it's the driver who is responsible.

Technical indicators are fine - they have their appropriate context and provide great study.

It's those who produce (sometimes misguided, often bias) analysis with these same tools that tend to be the root of problem.

Fib

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#4 TechMan

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:12 AM

technical indicators rendered useless

That would be like saying a SUV caused an accident or killed someone when it's the driver who is responsible.

Technical indicators are fine - they have their appropriate context and provide great study.

It's those who produce (sometimes misguided, often bias) analysis with these same tools that tend to be the root of problem.

Fib



First of all, you took the most important part of my sentence, "as they're mostly oscillators", out of the context, as you've always done to other posters. Oscillators don't work in this type of market.

Spin isn't appreciated.

Second of all, it's absolutely nothing like driving an SUV if the SUV has been "manipulated", and the driver's not aware of it.

#5 Jhoe

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:39 AM

technical indicators rendered useless

That would be like saying a SUV caused an accident or killed someone when it's the driver who is responsible.

Technical indicators are fine - they have their appropriate context and provide great study.

It's those who produce (sometimes misguided, often bias) analysis with these same tools that tend to be the root of problem.

Fib


I couldnt agree with u more. Technicals are all I use and I've been able to navigate the broad market and many individual stocks just fine since I began trading in 2009. I think those who say technicals have been rendered useless are likely relying too heavily on one or two indicators, as opposed to using many to form a more comprehensive opinion. For example, using oscillators like macd/rsi or moving avgs alone, without fib levels and wave counts would be pretty useless as the former are often lagging indicators. Also, depends on how the tools are used. I use macd to find divergences between price/macd and get ahead of reversals. But would I ever trade solely on a macd divergence? Of course not. Like a wrench is only as valuable in fixing a car as the guy holding it , technicals and results will vary by user

#6 IYB

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:41 AM

Oscillators don't work in this type of market.

They work quite nicely for me as I use them to indicate thrust and direction of trend. But I speak only for myself. Everybody has their own experience from which to draw and that's fine by me.... :)

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#7 TechMan

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:44 AM

Continue to trade the individual stocks rather than the Indexes although it's been quite time consuming.

Ancestry.com shot up nearly 5% on Friday. I'm really seeing AOL at $100 all over again.

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Edited by TechMan, 04 February 2012 - 11:44 AM.


#8 TechMan

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:49 AM

O.K. guys, if you think Oscillators work, that's fine by me. So, instead of going back and forth, all that I'm asking you is to post your buy and sell signal here whenever it's triggered. be it intraday or inter-day and not after the fact. We can then start keeping track of them. O.K. ?

#9 manuj

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:51 AM

TM - I recommend VectorVest as scanning and backtesting software for picking individual stocks.


Continue to trade the individual stocks rather than the Indexes although it's been quite time consuming.

Ancestry.com shot up nearly 5% on Friday. I'm really seeing AOL at $100 all over again.

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#10 TechMan

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Posted 04 February 2012 - 11:52 AM

TM - I recommend VectorVest as scanning and backtesting software for picking individual stocks.


Continue to trade the individual stocks rather than the Indexes although it's been quite time consuming.

Ancestry.com shot up nearly 5% on Friday. I'm really seeing AOL at $100 all over again.

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Thanks, buddy. I'll check it out.