12 replies to this topic

[Dex]

What about this McClellan signal?

In an interview McClellan said he watches that but doesn't know why the net long/short one year in advance appears to correlate with the current market.

[jjc]

BTW, COT correlation looks pretty bullish on your chart, it looks like we have a consolidation until the nominal 40 wk cycle low due in late May or early June. If the bears cannot pull a good sell off into the cycle low due in March, probably we have another higher high coming up into April.

I think you need to look closer there arb. That cot data has a 52 week lead. All I can do is scratch my head and ask myself why it works! It has a history of correlation (with the lead) beyond what that chart has shown.

Yes, I am looking and I am seeing 10% credit growth that is leading the stock market. The liquidity leads the stocks. This is exactly what I said, a consolidation into summer and then up, up and away. In fact, if we don't see a clear break into the cycle low into March (64-68 tdays), the chances are there will be an higher high into April from the cycle 64-68 day low. I posted earlier the analysis about the 64-68 trading day cycle. There are too many issues following this cycle, probably we will get some sort of a sell off. The intensity of it will be probably mild given the amount of credit made available...

The lead of 52 weeks is so surprising to me. That is all.

[voltaire]

BTW, COT correlation looks pretty bullish on your chart, it looks like we have a consolidation until the nominal 40 wk cycle low due in late May or early June. If the bears cannot pull a good sell off into the cycle low due in March, probably we have another higher high coming up into April.

I think you need to look closer there arb. That cot data has a 52 week lead. All I can do is scratch my head and ask myself why it works! It has a history of correlation (with the lead) beyond what that chart has shown.

Yes, I am looking and I am seeing 10% credit growth that is leading the stock market. The liquidity leads the stocks. This is exactly what I said, a consolidation into summer and then up, up and away. In fact, if we don't see a clear break into the cycle low into March (64-68 tdays), the chances are there will be an higher high into April from the cycle 64-68 day low. I posted earlier the analysis about the 64-68 trading day cycle. There are too many issues following this cycle, probably we will get some sort of a sell off. The intensity of it will be probably mild given the amount of credit made available...

The lead of 52 weeks is so surprising to me. That is all.



McClellan does it all the time with various leading prices.

I have seen him use oil a year or so in advance etc.

I used to use housing stats a year in advance myself.

So far as his rough June 4 low goes, the Armstrong cycle that gave us the 2011 high suggests May 26 2012 as a low.

I would have loved the Feb 9 date on DJIA to have held to confirm an equal duration move into a low July 5 (or 8) 2013 but now exceeded, sob :-).