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Short Positions Over the Weekend?


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#1 TechMan

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Posted 17 February 2012 - 02:57 PM

The market came out with a big bang of volume. But by 1:00pm, the volume's dissipated while the market's on the rise.

The most actively traded Nasdaq stock, INTC, has replaced AAPL as "The Market" today. INTC shot straight up and stayed outside of hourly upper BB all day - same with the daily stick. It had gained as much as 2.54% on nearly 60 million shares so far. INTC volume 30-day EMA is 45 million shares.

In any case, INTC, "The Market", is obviously way overbought, and a mean reversion to work off the excess seems imminent.

If the NYA goes down today, Jeremy Lin and the NY Knicks may come up short against the lowly Hornets tonight to end their 7-game winning streak.

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Edited by TechMan, 17 February 2012 - 02:58 PM.


#2 andiron

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Posted 17 February 2012 - 03:11 PM

Tebow...Lin......Mayan Armageddon?? in QE market, higher volume would accompany sell off and light vol rally//

Edited by andiron, 17 February 2012 - 03:15 PM.


#3 q4wer

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Posted 17 February 2012 - 03:41 PM

Is EBAY breaking long term resistence to the upside ~~~ Dell is following Intel too ...

#4 zman

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Posted 17 February 2012 - 04:01 PM

Tebow...Lin......Mayan Armageddon??

in QE market, higher volume would accompany sell off and light vol rally//


NO! do not put him in the tebow camp....that is an insult
Education is the best defense against the media.

#5 einscodek

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Posted 17 February 2012 - 04:18 PM

Real toss-up for positions over the weekend here.. the moving news on Monday will be the Greek bailout.. yea or nay If rumors are correct, the whole bailout is theatre and the answer on Monday should be more delay, pushback, or a straight no and the markets correct. IMO more pushback is in order for Monday..

#6 dasein

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Posted 17 February 2012 - 04:25 PM

or, there will be a happy (meaningless) compromise and everyone shakes hands and smiles and a push up. Im dreaming but i think we get 1372 next week.

Edited by dasein, 17 February 2012 - 04:26 PM.

best,
klh

#7 TechMan

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Posted 17 February 2012 - 07:00 PM

Looks like Jeremy Lin and the Knicks will make it 8 in a row. Well, if what "everyone" is looking for is but a harmless "pull-back", then everyone is likely not to get that. The market will either keep going up without hesitation or it will plunge so hard that may turn any perma-bull into a bear. The latter is, by all means, a more likely scenario in my view. The NDX has already gone up 13.45% in less than 7 weeks this year. That's on pace to 100% gain per annum. With all the stimuli and QE, the NDX had gained less than 3% in 2011 and about 20% in 2010. That's in addition to historical extremes in some of my technical data not seen since 2007/2008 tops. One example that's commonly available is the Nasdaq 100 Buywrite Index, which is not an "Oscillator". Anyway, it's currently at the level that matches the high of the end of July in 2007. Carrying short positions over this long weekend? Why not.

#8 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 17 February 2012 - 07:54 PM

Government keeping the Tax cut extended and the stocks are around 16 PE, so they are not real high..... I think this run higher can continue higher.... I'm just waiting for Stock Prices or the Dollar to become oversold or the Stock market to go parabolic..... We are currently in a controlled and steady upswing in stocks.... Barry

#9 TechMan

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Posted 18 February 2012 - 12:36 AM

stocks are around 16 PE, so they are not real high..... I think this run higher can continue higher....


You do know that there's really no strong correlation between the SPX and the PE unless you use PE10. And, if you'd look at the correlation between the inflation adjusted price and the PE10 ratio, it's still relatively high.

And, since we're talking about carrying short positions over the long weekend, when you said it's going higher, did you mean it's going higher on Tuesday, higher close next week, or eventually? I know eventually everything's likely to go higher. As I've commented above, I don't believe we'll get a small pull-back that everyone's looking for. It's wound up for either going straight up or down.

Edited by TechMan, 18 February 2012 - 12:45 AM.


#10 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 18 February 2012 - 09:19 AM

stocks are around 16 PE, so they are not real high..... I think this run higher can continue higher....


You do know that there's really no strong correlation between the SPX and the PE unless you use PE10. And, if you'd look at the correlation between the inflation adjusted price and the PE10 ratio, it's still relatively high.

And, since we're talking about carrying short positions over the long weekend, when you said it's going higher, did you mean it's going higher on Tuesday, higher close next week, or eventually? I know eventually everything's likely to go higher. As I've commented above, I don't believe we'll get a small pull-back that everyone's looking for. It's wound up for either going straight up or down.


Hello Techman....

I couple things I'm looking at before we top out...

1- 10-day OEX Put/Call close to a 6 month high, while Equity and CBOE put/call ratio is low...
2- 90% of NYSE over their 50-day MA... This should happen if the equities go parabolic....
3- Market is heading higher in a trend channel. One it breaks above the channel for a couple of days I consider the market going parabolic which should be the last push higher...
4 - NYSE PE close to 20. This is long term...
5 - Sell off in bonds or dollar... ( Both TLT and dollar ) have not sold off enough... .If these drop below 30 on 14-day RSI they become a good value and equities don't.
6 - Drop in Commodities should also drop stocks short term....
7- The market being 20% over its 200-day MA... We are currently close to 13%

Barry