35 replies to this topic

[IYB]

Price Follows Breadth-Even Kings Shall Bow

Sure it does. The NYMO crossover you have shown on the chart and per the last discussion we had, price was around SPX 1350. Would you tell us how you managed the 75 point drawdown (from 1350 to 1425) while the king breadth was leading ?

BTW "Pure Price" based system took zero drawdown and gave a sell at 1386 as i posted last week.

NAV- The NYMO crossover is just one of Seven Sentinels. A trading signal is NOT generated when one Sentinel crosses...it takes ALL SEVEN. I'm not here to argue. In fact, the surer that traders are that breadth does NOT lead price - the better it is for the SS's and for me... so that to convince them otherwise would be counter productive.

Continued success to you. I've always greatly admired and respected your work. D

Don: Your results on C2 reflect a large drawdown recently. I don't know what your Seven Sentinels were doing at the time. Did you short before your sentinels gave a signal?

IT

No. The SS's were early on this turn just as they were in 2010, and YES this caused a big draw-down. In retrospect, I moved on the signal more aggressively than I should have- should have taken more time to build. Probably the two longest leads of the last ten years-- 2010 & 2012.

But as you know, the active trading C2 accounts now just under (ES PRO) all time highs and making new ATH's as we write (SS Daytrader). But your underlying Q is far more complicated than I have time to fully develop here.... Best regards, D

Edited by IYB, 11 April 2012 - 10:22 AM.

[selecto]

You get three bits of information in this biz: Price, time and volume. Every crunch derives from that. If you are trading vst, you watch time volume and price in real time tick by tick. If you can't make that work, how you gonna figure out some bunch of derivitives? I'm with Nav.

[SemiBizz]

Quite a silly argument. T.A. needs to be divided into different approaches. You have your flight engineers who measure the performance of the airplane with indicators. They are the first to diagnose propulsion, positive or negative. Indicators are great for longer term position traders. Some of us are pilots, and navigate from swing point to swing point and whenever you run out of real estate (breakdowns/breakouts) and there's no maps (history) available you go to fibonaccis and project. This is a traders approach. It's not about just getting the direction right, but knowing when to get in and when to get out, what price. Then we have the astrologers, numerologists and many other approaches. lots of ways to look at it.

[NAV]

Your system gives a sell, but whether you take it or not depends on a "retrace", and then a failure of that retrace, both of which are undefined.

Trust me, i am not going to post the details of my entry/exit rules here on TT or anywhere else. I have neither interest nor vested interest in doing that.

and neither of which did you post at the time. I didn't think you had sold either, at least based on what you had said.

I have not posted any trades in months. If your logic is "if a trade is not posted on TT, then that trade did not happen" , then i won't argue with you. But i do consider that as a insult, considering i spend 14 hours a day trading 3 markets. I did not bring up either the issue of trades, nor did i make a claim. I just posted the level where the trend changed. Asking a question for clarification is one thing. Making unfounded remarks like "You didn't take the trade or the trade setup did not occur" without knowing the system and what i do, is plain mean.

Knowing the trend correctly is half battle won in this business. Once you know the trend, it's just a matter of defining entry/exit rules to take the trades. It's ain't all that difficult for even someone with a basic understanding of TA to know what a retracement failure means. It can be defined in "n" ways. I define it based on pure price candles. Someone might choose to use a trendline break. Some might use a EMA crossover. But those rules are proprietary and i have said it thousand times. Maybe just posting the trend change levels is useless piece of information. If that's the case, i will stop posting them as well. Why waste my time and get into these futile discussions ? I will just observe the show from the sidelines.

[IYB]

Knowing the trend correctly is half battle won in this business....

NAV- that is the understatement of the year, and is exactly why I've always felt a very strong kinship with you despite differing methods we use to determine the trend. Once you "know" the trend, the rest is mechanics....fine tuning. Continued success, and I sure hope you don't just "observe the show from the sidelines"....D

[SemiBizz]

There are also relationships between the sectors and the broader market.

Take this one for example Weekly XAU Vs SPX.

There's nothing to be bullish about now until the XAU turns back up, and it will be well ahead of the broader market. Unless something changes, and it certainly can.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

[NAV]

Knowing the trend correctly is half battle won in this business....

NAV- that is the understatement of the year, and is exactly why I've always felt a very strong kinship with you despite differing methods we use to determine the trend. Once you "know" the trend, the rest is mechanics....fine tuning. Continued success, and I sure hope you don't just "observe the show from the sidelines"....D

IYB,

One of trading buddy loves to say, "If you don't get the trend right, no stop is wide enough".

Proper identification of trend is the toughest job in TA. But somehow it gets a E grade on this board.

Edited by NAV, 11 April 2012 - 11:00 AM.

[selecto]

Quite a silly argument.


I guess the bots that are doing 70% of the trading
agonoize every milli-second about some bunch of of
moving averages of some bunch of bullish percent
crunches , etc.?

They are trading price and volume, silly.

I'm with the bots.

[SemiBizz]

Quite a silly argument.


I guess the bots that are doing 70% of the trading
agonoize every milli-second about some bunch of of
moving averages of some bunch of bullish percent
crunches , etc.?

They are trading price and volume, silly.

I'm with the bots.

All about timeframe.

Minutes traders vs Day traders vs Position Traders vs "Investors"

All about time frames

[IndexTrader]

Your system gives a sell, but whether you take it or not depends on a "retrace", and then a failure of that retrace, both of which are undefined.

Trust me, i am not going to post the details of my entry/exit rules here on TT or anywhere else. I have neither interest nor vested interest in doing that.

and neither of which did you post at the time. I didn't think you had sold either, at least based on what you had said.

I have not posted any trades in months. If your logic is "if a trade is not posted on TT, then that trade did not happen" , then i won't argue with you. But i do consider that as a insult, considering i spend 14 hours a day trading 3 markets. I did not bring up either the issue of trades, nor did i make a claim. I just posted the level where the trend changed. Asking a question for clarification is one thing. Making unfounded remarks like "You didn't take the trade or the trade setup did not occur" without knowing the system and what i do, is plain mean.

Knowing the trend correctly is half battle won in this business. Once you know the trend, it's just a matter of defining entry/exit rules to take the trades. It's ain't all that difficult for even someone with a basic understanding of TA to know what a retracement failure means. It can be defined in "n" ways. I define it based on pure price candles. Someone might choose to use a trendline break. Some might use a EMA crossover. But those rules are proprietary and i have said it thousand times. Maybe just posting the trend change levels is useless piece of information. If that's the case, i will stop posting them as well. Why waste my time and get into these futile discussions ? I will just observe the show from the sidelines.

Since you directed this post to me, I would appreciate your quoting me correctly. None of those quote marks you're using represent anything I said.

A few things I don't have a clue on: the number of trades you make, how many hours a day you trade, how many markets you trade, whether or not you made any specific trade. So none of my comments are ever based on any of this. Don't put words in my mouth.

My comments have to do with the clarity of what you posted. You gave a price where you said a signal would occur. BUT, you also gave a condition that you did not take these signals unless a retrace occurred, and unless that retrace failed. Do you call that clear??? No, I don't expect you to divulge your secret trading information. I don't know how you resolve this for yourself. You don't want to post your trades...that's fine with me. You don't want to divulge how you would make a trade if you made it...that's fine with me too. But then don't be surprised when people are confused. When you only give signals, and then condition the signal, it's hard to say whether the signal worked or not, and not too surprisingly, some of the signals have not worked at all. That's OK too, I just would like to see clarity.

IT