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S&P's 500 fair market value from 1360 to 1485.

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#1 robo



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Posted 30 April 2012 - 04:21 PM

Well, it looks like we will see Doug on CNBC and the Kudlow report more often this summer with his Bullish trading range. My opinion is we will have at least one 20% correction or greater this summer. I do agree with the mid 1400's is doable on the high side, but 1360 will not hold and we will head much lower than 1360 in 2012. The Bulls and Bears will have a tough time this summer. He makes a good case, but it will not be I - buying any long positions at this level...... Hey, Doug could be correct, but he will not get my 401k money in the market until we are in the mid 1200's and I think it's coming this summer.

The best part of all of this if he is correct I lose nothing....401k money is staying in stable value funds until I see Blood in the streets and Doug has turned Bearish again....

Me - I'll be watching for the "Release of the Kraken."

Good Trading.

Holding HDGE.

This Week:
Release the Kraken
The problem for the stock market is that the 13-year journey of underperforming T-bills - with wicked collapses and break-even recoveries - is most probably not over.


Fair Market Value Update
By Doug Kass 04/30/12 - 12:00 PM EDT

While there could be overshoots, in all likelihood, I expect the S&P 500 to be contained within the upper range of these two likely outcomes (which account for 80% of the outcome probabilities) of between 1290 and 1540 for the remainder of the year. Taken literally, this yields about 113 S&P points of risk from the current S&P cash level and about 137 points to the upside, for a more favorable risk/reward.