36 replies to this topic

[TechMan]

Since I've identified Thursday, 11/15/2012, as "a" bottom (red arrow), the SPX has gone up 2.5% on the closing basis. And, I've yet to see technical evidence indicating that the rally's over.

I've also annotated recent event risks on the chart.





I don't usually hold positions in my trading accounts ahead of major event risks like the Fed events, Presidential elections, or even President Obama's press conferences, specifically pertinent to major financial crises. The mini crash on 8/8/2011 after the S&P downgrade seems like yesterday.

In any case, the point I'm trying to make is that the impacts of these events are likely temporary because most of the time they've already been priced in. The market's always forward looking. However, these temporary phenomena may be easily mistaken for some type of "momentum initiation" or end of the world events. The retracement may take hours, days, or even weeks, but it almost always takes place, even for something looking as ugly as last August.

[Mr Dev]

I would have to agree again .. and hope it works as well as the last time we agreed. although i do see a sell signal at the close on the 60m chart .

as i replied to Chili on my thread below, im not going to take it just yet for two reasons.
which may not matter at all but if they do .. then i've really shared something.

first the signal that i use has an underlying component let's call it a moving average which is still bullish let's say because its above the zero line.
second this sell could also easily diverge with a back kiss and higher high with price because of the NEXT higher time frame positivity...the Daily Signal which is now on a buy.
characteristic of a young trend.
so with bad news we get a down open because of the signal we both are looking at and with good news we get a positive open which would
likely be a sell point for me as it may diverge before seeking the aid of Support Areas which are:
RUT 789 then 783
INDU 12743 then 12673
NDX 2580 then 2557
SPX 1380 then 1369


I feel Any down open that finds Support quickly will likely be a Buy the DIP Signal for another attempt at higher prices before lower again, and a Nasty TRAP for Bearish Players.

Edited by Mr Dev, 20 November 2012 - 06:09 PM.

[TechMan]

I would have to agree again .. and hope it works as well as the last time we agreed.

Now, we're really living dangerously. :=)

Thanks for sharing your work. The SPX has taken a probe into Nov. 7 post-election selloff territory today. I'm looking at probable supply overhang near 1395 area first.

Good luck to us.

[ogm]

Oh, I believe you're trying to bait me again Why ? Ego ? You just so desperately want to prove me wrong ? I'm just in it for the money, ego is dangerous in the market.

After what I called "momentum initiation" you were still picking that bottom for another 50 SPX points I'm glad you finally succeeded. Even though even today we're still lower then the bottom of that candle

Uptrend is a series of higher highs and higher lows. Do you believe your chart is showing an uptrend ? Here is some educational material http://www.investope...p#axzz2CoGy678y

"The market's always forward looking" ... yes and no. Was 2000 Nasdaq bubble forward looking to what followed ? Think about it. Was 2007 housing bubble forward looking to 2008 crash ?

For the forward looking people the market was giving sings that something is wrong and those signs were manifesting in internals. Those who read the signs properly made money, those who didn't or paid attention to something else and thought... "oh the market is forward looking so it must be already priced in".... got slaughtered.

Edited by ogm, 20 November 2012 - 06:58 PM.

[CLK]

My main system is as high as it will go into overbought, so I expect no better than sideways chop the rest of the week until that works off. Higher likely, just not yet I think.

[ogm]

I would have to agree again .. and hope it works as well as the last time we agreed. although i do see a sell signal at the close on the 60m chart .

Mr. Dev, stop hedging. You need to take a stand ! What are you a trader, or something ? keep flip flopping on us like that

[TechMan]

You just so desperately want to prove me wrong ?

I didn't have to prove your wrong. I've already told you, in real time, mind you, not after the fact that you're wrong about the "momentum initiation" day.

This is a general commentary, a reminder, of event risks.

After what I called "momentum initiation" you were still picking that bottom for another 50 SPX points

Not true.

[ogm]

You just so desperately want to prove me wrong ?

I didn't have to prove your wrong. I've already told you, in real time, mind you, not after the fact that you're wrong about the "momentum initiation" day.

This is a general commentary, a reminder, of event risks.

After what I called "momentum initiation" you were still picking that bottom for another 50 SPX points

Not true.

Umm. ... are we looking at the same chart? What I called momentum initiation day was the drop day after election. That big red candle. Did the market go up or down after that? After your whooping 2.5% rally is the market Higher or lower then the bottom of That candle?
Please stop embarrasing yourself.

Edited by ogm, 20 November 2012 - 07:23 PM.

[TechMan]

You just so desperately want to prove me wrong ?

I didn't have to prove your wrong. I've already told you, in real time, mind you, not after the fact that you're wrong about the "momentum initiation" day.

This is a general commentary, a reminder, of event risks.

After what I called "momentum initiation" you were still picking that bottom for another 50 SPX points

Not true.

Umm. ... are we looking at the same chart? What I called momentum initiation day was the drop day after election. That big red candle. Did the market go up or down after that? After your whooping 2.5% rally is the market Higher or lower then the bottom of That candle?
Please stop embarrasing yourself.

You said it's a very "important" day because it's a momentum initiation day before the "next leg down". I wouldn't call 7 points between 11/7 and today is the "next leg down".

[ogm]

You said it's a very "important" day because it's a momentum initiation day before the "next leg down". I wouldn't call 7 points between 11/7 and today is the "next leg down".

Aww. I'm sorry you feel let down by only 4% followthrough. Your experience with downtrends is limited to the one from the last year when the market went down a [bleeep] of points every day, and you probably thought they all look like that. But they don't all look the same, let me assure you. However the series of lower lows and lower highs does still qualify as a downtrend. And they are quite frequently interrupted by sucker's rallies, some of which can be quite vicious and look like and IT uptrend is just around the corner.

Unfortunately uptrend is defined as a series of higher lows and higher highs, so unless we get at least one higher low followed by at least one higher high ( which often turn out to be bear flags in downtrends ), its too early to drop the caution every time market bounces a few points.

But its OK. You'll learn to read charts in time and will throw your fancy tools out the window when you'll get tired of losing money.

Edited by ogm, 20 November 2012 - 08:12 PM.