73 replies to this topic

[DrSP]

Well, I had a very specific question for you last night, and all you did was weasel around and not answer it.

What part of: "Remember that the McClellan Oscillator is a accelerometer of the NYAD line...the higher the reading, the longer it will take for momentum to be worked off before prices can turn in the opposite direction." dead on specific answer to your question wasn't made absolutely clear?

I didn't see a follow up question from you...am I to assume that you have very little technical knowledge when it comes to momentum and its dynamic applications to the direction of price? Do I need to take the position of being a condescending "guru" and explain every nuance to someone who has already shown great understanding in this area?

So what exactly IS your follow up question?

Fib

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Fibquotes....

OK...now that's out of the way...

The McClellan Oscillator measures the SPEED in which these two EMA's are either moving towards or away from each other.
from here
http://www.traders-t...mp;#entry487553
in another post.....
-------

What part of: "Remember that the McClellan Oscillator is a accelerometer of the NYAD line...the higher the reading, the longer it will take for momentum to be worked off before prices can turn in the opposite direction." dead on specific answer to your question wasn't made absolutely clear?


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So does the oscillator measure speed or acceleration based on this THEORY....? acceleration is a first derivative of speed as per Physics 101

Like EW = always bearish with a projection of SPX 100, Fib has always a bullish projection using the breadth. However, Lol, I remember his BETS bearish projection as well during the Thx giving day 2011, but that is for history books . Anyway coming to the point, these so called breadth gurus cant explain why deceleration doesn't exist in the parlance, or why market bottoms exactly at NYMO/ McSum lows....so breadth only applies to upside moves? I guess that is convenient during the bull market. Neither can the breadth point to peaks and bottoms. Breadth identifies the rally or bottom almost at the end of the move. I mean to say, all this "breadth" nonsense cannot be converted to trades, it seems good on explanation only.

In other words, I want to bring forward my statement - in a bull market, every tom, fib and harry is correct.

[DrSP]

Well, I had a very specific question for you last night, and all you did was weasel around and not answer it.

What part of: "Remember that the McClellan Oscillator is a accelerometer of the NYAD line...the higher the reading, the longer it will take for momentum to be worked off before prices can turn in the opposite direction." dead on specific answer to your question wasn't made absolutely clear?

I didn't see a follow up question from you...am I to assume that you have very little technical knowledge when it comes to momentum and its dynamic applications to the direction of price? Do I need to take the position of being a condescending "guru" and explain every nuance to someone who has already shown great understanding in this area?

So what exactly IS your follow up question?

Fib

---------------------
Fibquotes....

OK...now that's out of the way...

The McClellan Oscillator measures the SPEED in which these two EMA's are either moving towards or away from each other.
from here
http://www.traders-t...mp;#entry487553
in another post.....
-------

What part of: "Remember that the McClellan Oscillator is a accelerometer of the NYAD line...the higher the reading, the longer it will take for momentum to be worked off before prices can turn in the opposite direction." dead on specific answer to your question wasn't made absolutely clear?


---------------------

So does the oscillator measure speed or acceleration based on this THEORY....? acceleration is a first derivative of speed as per Physics 101

Like EW = always bearish with a projection of SPX 100, Fib has always a bullish projection using the breadth. However, Lol, I remember his BETS bearish projection as well during the Thx giving day 2011, but that is for history books . Anyway coming to the point, these so called breadth gurus cant explain why deceleration doesn't exist in the parlance, or why market bottoms exactly at NYMO/ McSum lows....so breadth only applies to upside moves? I guess that is convenient during the bull market. Neither can the breadth point to peaks and bottoms. Breadth identifies the rally or bottom almost at the end of the move. I mean to say, all this "breadth" nonsense cannot be converted to trades, it seems good on explanation only.

In other words, I want to bring forward my statement - in a bull market, every tom, fib and harry is correct.

[andiron]

In other words, I want to bring forward my statement - in a bull market, every tom, fib and harry is correct.

I don't want to be presumptuous here...
but does the above imply: Fib = Dick ?

Edited by andiron, 08 December 2012 - 04:53 PM.

[fib_1618]

So does the oscillator measure speed or acceleration based on this THEORY....?

An accelerometer measures "proper acceleration" very much like what your speedometer does in a car...it gives you a reading on both acceleration and the speed it produces.

And a theory is something that is hypothesized...this is a mathematical equation that has proven scientific evidence to support its conclusion.

Anyway coming to the point, these so called breadth gurus cant explain why deceleration doesn't exist in the parlance, or why market bottoms exactly at NYMO/ McSum lows....so breadth only applies to upside moves?

Pretty broad statement, but I don't know any "breadth guru" that doesn't use both acceleration and deceleration in their analysis since it's the very backbone of technical analysis.

And since the market is always in bear mode, most of these dynamic tools in breadth and volume analysis are provided as a way of knowing if there's been enough energy created to break free of this same default. So most of this analysis does has it's primary usage to advancing price structures and the stimulus needed to not only create one, but to also keep it from decaying.

but does the above imply: Fib = Dick ?

I wouldn't be surprised!

Fib

[andiron]

let me put forward my position ...NYMO is as helpful in predicting NYAD future course (let alone the market, insofar as NYAD tracks the market direction pretty well) as MACD is in predicting market/stock future course.... you still have not responded if NYMO measures acceleration or speed or both... and my car goes pretty fast at 70 mph in cruise control and yet the acceleration is zero////

[fib_1618]

you still have not responded if NYMO measures acceleration or speed or both...

I quoted your question..."So does the oscillator measure speed or acceleration based on this THEORY....?"

I responded with my answer: "An accelerometer measures "proper acceleration" very much like what your speedometer does in a car...it gives you a reading on both acceleration and the speed it produces."

Since the premise of the question was based on my accelerometer statement: "Remember that the McClellan Oscillator is a accelerometer of the NYAD line..." I didn't think it was necessary to provide an additional bridge in my answer to complete the chain of thought.

NYMO is as helpful in predicting NYAD future course

No, it's the other way around. The NYAD line is the fuel gauge, the MCO measures the thrust or acceleration quotient of the fuel being used that can be power prices in one direction or the other.

The MCSUM then measures the distance that this same energy dynamic can push prices in this same direction...and the time it will take to reach this objective.

EX: If you're in your car, and you floor the accelerator pedal to the point you go 70 MPH (MCO), even after you take your foot off the accelerator, the car will continue to move forward (MCSUM) until an equal and opposite force can slow its forward motion (Newton's Law of Motion) to the point in which it ceases in this same direction...on a level plane...straight line...no brakes.

I provided a link earlier in the thread on this very subject for your further review.

Fib

Edited by fib_1618, 08 December 2012 - 06:39 PM.

[DrSP]

Come on guys, that phrase means anyone/ everyone/ everybody etc. There is no literature search here in this grammar class. Focus on the point here. Anyway, coming to the discussion, if and when the McSums bottom, I haven't seen any analyst saying "Ok the McSums bottomed here, but the market didn't bottom here. They would bottom in future in a few days etc." means this NYMO/ NYAD/ NYSI interpretations are not associated with bottoms. Even if they do, the market doesn't follow what they say. Only when the Summation tops comes the question of market topping further out in future. Yeah sure, when liquidity is sloshed at the market, it will never top, accepted. For example, he refers to the Sum top of 2010 frequently and because of that we are continuing in the bull market even today. What??? Yeah sure, summations will have everlasting effect on bull markets only in fiction. I may agree if the effect may last for 6 months (at the most) but 3 years? 4 years and 5 years out? Yeah? If that is the case, we should be bottoming at SPX 600 in 2013 because in 2008 the summations hit a low. It is pure foolery just like Dev said. What I am saying is Fib may be teached theory here but the market doesn't move according to what he says. If it does, his record would be better. Mind you, I am not questioning his record. Everyone of us have our own methods, comfort trading zones etc. What I am saying is his record with the market via this "breadth" stuff is not all that great. May be he is a great trader, no idea, but I am specifically talking about this Sum business. Remove this Sum analysis from his arsenal, he could be much better for his intelligence. My conclusion is in a bull market, all analysts will be right because regardless of whether they tell me or no, the market is looking upward. I can even tell you that the man on the street does way better in a bull market because he doesn't overanalyze or pinpoint every move. He has no idea. Just buy and hold is a lot better. We guys here try to mark every turn. In bull markets, it is not worth the time. In simple words, I don't attribute any success to this breadth analysis. I am out of this thread because we have had this before, several times. Neither fib was conclusively able to give market pointers in past nor will he be able to give in future. Yeah, explanations, sure he will but they don't convert into market points. I have no interest, I made my point and I am out.

Edited by DrSP, 08 December 2012 - 06:55 PM.

[fib_1618]

I haven't seen any analyst saying "OK the McSums bottomed here, but the market didn't bottom here.

Then you evidently have never read any of the chat transcripts or past posts on the Technical Watch message board. There are countless times in which this has been shared since 2005 and here on Trader's Talk since 2002, even beside myself. Like every oscillator out there, internal energy will usually to peak first (sans the occasional rogue wave), with prices later on as it works off the forward motion of the momentum created by this same energy spike.

he refers to the Sum top of 2010 frequently and because of that we are continuing in the bull market even today. What??? Yeah sure, summations will have everlasting effect on bull markets only in fiction. I may agree if the effect may last for 6 months (at the most) but 3 years? 4 years and 5 years out? Yeah?

Yes, very definitely, as the McClellan Summation Index measures the DISTANCE in which prices can travel both in price and time. Just like the thrust of 2003 forecasted a high in 2007, the 2010 thrust peak forecasted a price high in the spring of 2013. It is what it is...it is the beauty of the tool if one takes the time to understand its nuances and not flippantly toss it aside without putting in the work ethic that comes from knowing. Oh, and by the way, if one (maybe 2) time in 3 years constitutes as frequently, then I have to learn the "new English".

What I am saying is his record with the market via this "breadth" stuff is not all that great.

Then I invite you and everyone who reads this to take the time to review the 7 YEARS of chat transcripts and posts over at Technical Watch. It's all there for everyone to review in real time. All you need is a charting program to follow along. Show me anyone who has this kind of information available for review without paying for it. I am proud of my record, and I fully stand by my analysis because...my dissidents know the truth and only focus on the rare events in which the market doesn't quite follow the script laid out, no less, their assumptions. This happens in this business to everyone. Nothing and no one is perfect...I don't expect it, I've never claimed it. But there has been many current and past members on this board who have used this tutelage to raise their level of trading success, and that is greatly satisfying. I encourage them to continue to "pay it forward" whenever possible as no one is going to understand something the way that you do.

Neither fib was conclusively able to give market pointers in past nor will he be able to give in future.

And you can't have a discussion when minds have already been made up without putting in an ounce of effort in looking at the evidence without prejudice....a characteristic of a fundamentalist who likes to play technician.

So be it.

And to think that this all started with a small comment suggestion that we may be closer to a top than many realize by their own admission.

Amazing.

Fib

[DrSP]

Fib, You haven't answered why the 2008 "Sum" downward thrust didn't last longer than 6 months. Thanks in advance. It is my opinion and most others as well that there is no value in this analysis. If there is actual value, then good luck to you and them as well! Congratulations to you on your success. - Best

[fib_1618]

You haven't answered why the 2008 "Sum" downward thrust didn't last longer than 6 months.

I have re-reviewed the thread and find no specific question on the subject.

What exactly is your question? An annotated chart may also help others to understand your query as well.

It is my opinion and most others as well that there is no value in this analysis.

One can not have an opinion until there is enough knowledge to make it more than just an impression...something that is beyond a preconceived judgment. You also can't talk for others as everyone has their own level of experience. Some may find no value in an idea, but these same folks may have actually put in the time and effort to make such an opinion as it relates to their own personal circumstances (be it trading or whatever the subject matter might be). Your then taking liberties in saying that "most", that is the greatest in quantity is, therefore, misguided, pompous and insulting to those who have taken the time in examining such subject matter.

If there is actual value...

Value is in the eye of the beholder. Some people find value in their existence, others do not. Everyone here on this board shares their interpretation of market activity that has value to some and none to others. But where real value comes is when there is the effort to at least try to work with something for a period of time (of more than a few hours) to at least understand its make up, application and context before forming an opinion, no less, an actual judgement of the material being offered.

Fib