Jump to content



Photo

The TOP is IN !


  • Please log in to reply
46 replies to this topic

#21 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,276 posts

Posted 22 May 2013 - 09:20 PM

You ain't talking to me with your bears been wrong for months comments...

I am on record here all this year including this on 3/2 and repeated again as recently as 5/3

Runaway Parabola


So you can say I am fundamentally a bear, you cannot say I was bearish on the market.

Remember, I insisted that 954.00 RUT, the 3/15 high, would be tested, even when it dropped under 900.




I am not refering to you that is why I split the paragraphs up. I am wondering why you see this as a mega top though,
I see nothing in the volume that indicates that in the least.

Edited by CLK, 22 May 2013 - 09:23 PM.


#22 zoropb

zoropb

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,376 posts

Posted 22 May 2013 - 09:43 PM

Mr T. I have some issues on the monthly chart that I have never seen resolved in a major top like 2000 or 2007, 3 of them do not jive throw in AD and make it 4. I can see us taking out the weekly signal low though, again es1573.75. Es already generated lower targets tonight posted on blog.

After this little dip happening now in ahrs probably try for pivot area and fall short es 1665 is Piv. until the morning.


Futures rolling into JITTER MODE....

We are headed for VOLATILITY CITY....

P, I know you see what I'm talking about...

This is going to get Scary before it's over....

Yeah I do T. for a bit. Hey just found 2 more no goes on monthly. It does not agree on major top, that is too many of them but got to respect what you found cannot just say that's nothing its got to be worth a bucket of points down. Can't just disregard my signal 4 for 4 and only been 5 of them in 13 years not like they happen all the time. It says es 1573.75 gets breached so I listen until it does not work. Cannot disregard several more bigger ema issues. Cannot disregard the pattern that went into the high last time I saw something similar had a nasty correction over 100+ spx points.

I run a traders Blog with high probability targeting on ES , closed to any new members.


#23 tommyt

tommyt

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 4,906 posts

Posted 22 May 2013 - 09:50 PM

The futures are on the verge of a violent crash tonight...



Normally, I am dismissive of crash calls...

But in this current environment it's possible as long as yields do not plummet...



Crashes do not happen off the high. Pullbacks to support/trendlines come first. After that process takes place and fails, the market gets into a weaker state...then bigger down potential, then crashes.

#24 SemiBizz

SemiBizz

    Volume Dynamics Specialist

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 22,674 posts

Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:02 PM

Well, I do a lot of homework and studying. I was trying to think of when we have seen a rally like this one... this is what I came up with... (From Monday's Forecast)

So this time we're gonna digress from the usual format for educational purposes. So once again PRICE BEHAVIOR in this PRICE ZONE. I have mentioned to expect unusual behavior with large gaps, trend days, wide range days - I issued a strong advisory when we crossed 3258 as to what type of behavior we expected and we got it. The Nasdaq showed us a 30 pt gap on the Non Farm Payroll day of 05/03, and there are numerous smaller gaps up in the last two weeks of trading. Frankly though, the rally I am seeing here, the shape and geometry of it says that a BASE IS BEING BUILT, as now we have added PRICE STRUCTURE to the TRADING ZONE. Remember, I told you that we could see Explosive moves in this range - and the Nasdaq has tacked on almost 350 pts in the last 21 trading days... that's 10% and given the short period of time it is a PARABOLIC MOVE. Now when I say BASE, let me modify that to A WEAK BASE of SUPPORT is BEING BUILT. In looking over many years of trading patterns and charts, the closest I can come to the present configuration is the period in the Spring of 2010 ahead of the FLASH CRASH.

Let's take a look at that for example... on 2/5/10 Nasdaq bottomed out at 2100, and on 4/26 it was up to 2535 and that's MORE than 20% and just eight days later on 5/6/10, the Nasdaq made a low of 2185, giving up 350 pts out of a 435 pts rally. Long time subscribers will remember that trading day and the period that preceded it, and my concern over the Euro in particular, we had the EUR/CHF peg that was holding the Euro up give way about 10 hrs ahead of the FLASH CRASH. OK so, what is different on the currency front this time? A few things, we have the debasement of the yen in progress, Europe is finally cutting rates and there is major turbulence in that currency market. I just want you to understand that whatever goes on in stocks, commodities, and other markets, the CURRENCY MARKET is the PRIMARY DRIVING FORCE behind ALL MARKETS. So as we approach this period ahead, I want you to REMEMBER THIS, because that was the major reason behind the FLASH CRASH, and we can certainly have another one.

Posted Image


This is what we have after the close today...

Posted Image

Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics


#25 viccarter

viccarter

    TRIN_Rida

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 1,824 posts

Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:15 PM

All were/are talking this is different this time etc. New 1990's new 1982. I have never seen such stupidity in all my life. But not ONE of this come out hard and strong on a move before it happens. This is bar none the worst forum out there for the initiated or inexperienced. I would never recommend this place to a newbie.

Way to insult the whole community there Vic...and STILL you continue to make contributions to the board!

Geez....

Meanwhile, the market just tripped on a loose shoelace today...we'll probably be back at new price highs sometime next week.

Fib


Fib I am not saying that there won't be more UP days, I am not saying that tomorrow or especially Friday might not be UP. What I am saying is that when you have an entire community pushing hard as if this is the breakout of something new and dramatic. And you have the RUT monthly significantly pushing above +2 sigma, you have the whole community pushing long. Now we all know this was/is a strong trend, but my point is that when you have people that are supposed to be "experienced" with 30 or 40 years and they are going on at these danger levels like they were... it is plain down irresponsible. They never say "caution". They never even mention that it is possible that buying here might be the top for months to freaking years! To hear them that is not possible, and then they claim to have an open mind about the market.

Worse, you get the economists on a TA board. Bernake is doing the same thing now as 3 years ago, but now all these bulls understand everything that's going on and why this and why that with the Federal Reserve, and act like they studied under Becker @ U Chicago, PHD in Economics bulls on a TA board.

The daily is a 5 minute chart that's blowin off. The Monthly is a 15minute chart thats blowing up. It won't last, but ultimately might now go down as much as we think (845 RUT hit within 3 months no doubt at least that), or it might go down way more than we think. Everything is on the table INCLUDING testing or near testing 2009 lows in due time.

Always, no matter if my stupid TRIN system failed me week after NFP. I always PLAN for possibility of RUT hitting +3 or MORE on month and possible retest next month. That contingency goes into my trading plan, but I know that likely it doesn't make it there and that's IT for a very long time. The very best thing that could happen for bulls is just a blistering 10-12% correction that does the major work in a week or so.

#26 CLK

CLK

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 9,276 posts

Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:32 PM

I don't know what we just saw, but it was not an important top in my book. I see the volume, but not enough time has elapsed, tops take time.

#27 zoropb

zoropb

    Member

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 6,376 posts

Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:47 PM

if 1659 is all that could be squeezed tonight yikes.

Edited by zoropb, 22 May 2013 - 10:49 PM.

I run a traders Blog with high probability targeting on ES , closed to any new members.


#28 SemiBizz

SemiBizz

    Volume Dynamics Specialist

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 22,674 posts

Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:52 PM

So... SOX, XOI, BKX, DJT, RUT were also ALL BUSTED ON BLOWOUT VOLUME today... Not just a test of the previous day's lows we couldn't get for the last two weeks... Breaking 8-9 days worth of lows... Couldn't be clearer. :rolleyes:

Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics


#29 SemiBizz

SemiBizz

    Volume Dynamics Specialist

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 22,674 posts

Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:55 PM

They trying the PADDLES Now Z... :) TRASHING THE DOLLAR... All it got them so far is ANOTHER NEW LOW 1650... :lol: Oh this is bad bad bad when they apply that stimulus and get THIS response... RUT ROH....

Edited by SemiBizz, 22 May 2013 - 10:56 PM.

Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics


#30 SemiBizz

SemiBizz

    Volume Dynamics Specialist

  • Traders-Talk User
  • 22,674 posts

Posted 22 May 2013 - 10:59 PM

1649s DOWN WE GO 1646.50 Here we come...

Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics