65 replies to this topic

[typicalbear]

For one thing, none of those other instances do I remember the parties as polarized as this one.

Sure they have. We just forget.

All the battles with Regan and the Democratic Congress...all those battles with Clinton and the Republican Congress.

And let's not even go into the hatred and bitterness between the parties in the mid 1800's!

There's just more conjecture and hyperbole right now than what we've been used to over the years...plus we have the major emotional topic of health care thrown into the mix.

Fib

The difference this time is that it's all about health care. So, Obamacare starts tomorrow and the Street wants to celebrate with a rally(?)

[arbman]

For one thing, none of those other instances do I remember the parties as polarized as this one.

Sure they have. We just forget.

All the battles with Regan and the Democratic Congress...all those battles with Clinton and the Republican Congress.

And let's not even go into the hatred and bitterness between the parties in the mid 1800's!

There's just more conjecture and hyperbole right now than what we've been used to over the years...plus we have the major emotional topic of health care thrown into the mix.

Fib

The difference this time is that it's all about health care. So, Obamacare starts tomorrow and the Street wants to celebrate with a rally(?)

Obamacare can actually keep the medicare costs under control which has been one of the largest contributor to the output gap in US, forcing the debt to GDP to grow, perhaps the markets may see it positively eventually. Some bullish thoughts as well, although I expect some more (short) fueling of the markets at this point...

[fib_1618]

The difference this time is that it's all about health care. So, Obamacare starts tomorrow and the Street wants to celebrate with a rally(?)

All I know is that we're technically sitting on an "oversold" powder keg right now...all that's needed is a spark and the results will likely be quite dramatic as this compression is released.

Fib

[typicalbear]

Intraday, the market has rallied almost every day of this decline. Last night it opened 12 pts lower without any selling...then went sideways 'til the opening and then rallied all day. If anything, it's overbought. The way we gauge overbought/oversold in commodities is by increases and decreases in long and short positions via the COT reports. But it seems that with stocks, the S&P can rally 150 points to get overbought, but only decline 50 points to get oversold.

[Dex]

For one thing, none of those other instances do I remember the parties as polarized as this one.

Don't get taken in by 24hr news channels and talk radio.

[fib_1618]

Last night it opened 12 pts lower without any selling...then went sideways 'til the opening and then rallied all day. If anything, it's overbought.

Actually, this is a sign of an "oversold" imbalance on a daily basis.

It's very much like throwing a basketball into the deep end of the swimming pool...the only way it stays below the water line is that you have to apply constant pressure on the ball to counter displacement. But once this same constant pressure is released (using one hand instead of two), the basketball not only moves towards back to the surface, but it can actually move quickly back above the water line (both hands are released) to about the same height in which it was held under the water line before once again floating on the surface (neutral balance between buyers and sellers).

Near term (hours) we're compressed, short term (that of a week) we're also compressed. Intermediate term (2-3 weeks), we're pretty much neutral right now.

Place your bets...fundamentals say down, technicials say bottom.

Fib

[Dex]

Obamacare can actually keep the medicare costs under control which has been one of the largest contributor to the output gap in US, forcing the debt to GDP to grow, perhaps the markets may see it positively eventually. Some bullish thoughts as well, although I expect some more (short) fueling of the markets at this point...

Pick any number of programs for that award.

Why not the defense and the recent wars?

[typicalbear]

Last night it opened 12 pts lower without any selling...then went sideways 'til the opening and then rallied all day. If anything, it's overbought.

Actually, this is a sign of an "oversold" imbalance on a daily basis.

It's very much like throwing a basketball into the deep end of the swimming pool...the only way it stays below the water line is that you have to apply constant pressure on the ball to counter displacement. But once this same constant pressure is released (using one hand instead of two), the basketball not only moves towards back to the surface, but it can actually move quickly back above the water line (both hands are released) to about the same height in which it was held under the water line before once again floating on the surface (neutral balance between buyers and sellers).

Near term (hours) we're compressed, short term (that of a week) we're also compressed. Intermediate term (2-3 weeks), we're pretty much neutral right now.

Place your bets...fundamentals say down, technicials say bottom.

Fib

Good explanation, and I appreciate you taking the time. But you can't assume that the amount of air in the ball is a constant. Some times the air content varies...and when there is no air, the ball...

[pdx5]

Obamacare can actually keep the medicare costs under control

You may be correct on the cost aspect.
The only way they can reduce cost is by paying doctors & hospitals less.

I am on Medicare now for over half a dozen years.
Every time we move to a different city, I have heck of a time
finding doctors who will accept NEW Medicare patients.

If Obamacare results in lowering payments to doctors, it won't
get any easier to find doctors who will accept new patients.

[andiron]

For one thing, none of those other instances do I remember the parties as polarized as this one.

Sure they have. We just forget.

All the battles with Regan and the Democratic Congress...all those battles with Clinton and the Republican Congress.

And let's not even go into the hatred and bitterness between the parties in the mid 1800's!

There's just more conjecture and hyperbole right now than what we've been used to over the years...plus we have the major emotional topic of health care thrown into the mix.

Fib

The difference this time is that it's all about health care. So, Obamacare starts tomorrow and the Street wants to celebrate with a rally(?)

Obamacare can actually keep the medicare costs under control which has been one of the largest contributor to the output gap in US, forcing the debt to GDP to grow, perhaps the markets may see it positively eventually. Some bullish thoughts as well, although I expect some more (short) fueling of the markets at this point...

How all sorts of doctors/insurance/beneficiaries have been mooching off of medicare is all there to see..it is part of the larger pattern where wannabe capitalists suck govt tits till cows come home and yet barrage govt w/ all kinds of profanities for popular consumption...

If healthcare is a problem, open the doors for asian/latin doctors and allow them to practice...medical costs will plummet....

i dont see any equivalent lobby group like AMA in engineering field..wonder why??

Edited by andiron, 30 September 2013 - 08:32 PM.