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High Probability for Big Down Friday


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#1 Devastator91

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 11:03 AM

Today market missed on Initial claims, won on continuing, missed on Existing Home Sales. Before Fed intervention, this would've been Thurs washout and Friday's wild card. Now we're in the contrarian bizzaro world that sets up bull and bear traps, regardless of TA charts (those things are really useless, so I don't know why they're posted so much). This is a sentimental market now. We have new home sales early tomorrow, which will probably miss because of the long harsh winter. I feel whatever number given will.be cause to sell. It's not like Mother's Day, where we had POMO and the need to go to dinners over the weekend with something to brag about. VIX looks like a coiled spring now. It will be tested. Thoughts?

#2 fib_1618

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 11:07 AM

...regardless of TA charts (those things are really useless, so I don't know why they're posted so much)

Thoughts?

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#3 tommyt

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 11:09 AM

Today market missed on Initial claims, won on continuing, missed on Existing Home Sales. Before Fed intervention, this would've been Thurs washout and Friday's wild card. Now we're in the contrarian bizzaro world that sets up bull and bear traps, regardless of TA charts (those things are really useless, so I don't know why they're posted so much). This is a sentimental market now.

We have new home sales early tomorrow, which will probably miss because of the long harsh winter. I feel whatever number given will.be cause to sell. It's not like Mother's Day, where we had POMO and the need to go to dinners over the weekend with something to brag about. VIX looks like a coiled spring now. It will be tested.

Thoughts?



depends on how one defines coiled spring I guess. It doesnt look like one...its working down. Vix doesnt go to 0, so when we look at the graph, like now, our first take is it looks dirt cheap, right? cause its at the bottom of the whole page. We all know it may or may not be. Its simple, if one thinks its cheap, buy some vix calls from the roach motel boys.

vix

#4 TTrader47

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 11:16 AM

Its simple, if one thinks its cheap, buy some vix calls from the roach motel boys.


I'm on that. Got in at 12.07

#5 Devastator91

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 11:17 AM

depends on how one defines coiled spring I guess. It doesnt look like one...its working down. Vix doesnt go to 0, so when we look at the graph, like now, our first take is it looks dirt cheap, right? cause its at the bottom of the whole page. We all know it may or may not be. Its simple, if one thinks its cheap, buy some vix calls from the roach motel boys.

vix

Probably just will opt for weekly UVXY or SVXY puts and get the money I lost this week back plus some. Spot futures seem to be up since the next cycle, as UVXY was barely fazed by yesterday's market leap. Traders are going to put two days into one tomorrow, so what would Monday's sentiment have been? Friday's are always wildcards thanks to Fed, but we top today.

#6 blustar

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 11:20 AM

Today market missed on Initial claims, won on continuing, missed on Existing Home Sales. Before Fed intervention, this would've been Thurs washout and Friday's wild card. Now we're in the contrarian bizzaro world that sets up bull and bear traps, regardless of TA charts (those things are really useless, so I don't know why they're posted so much). This is a sentimental market now.

We have new home sales early tomorrow, which will probably miss because of the long harsh winter. I feel whatever number given will.be cause to sell. It's not like Mother's Day, where we had POMO and the need to go to dinners over the weekend with something to brag about. VIX looks like a coiled spring now. It will be tested.

Thoughts?

Could be,, fairly good sized drop coming

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#7 MikeyG

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 11:25 AM

Today market missed on Initial claims, won on continuing, missed on Existing Home Sales. Before Fed intervention, this would've been Thurs washout and Friday's wild card. Now we're in the contrarian bizzaro world that sets up bull and bear traps, regardless of TA charts (those things are really useless, so I don't know why they're posted so much). This is a sentimental market now.

We have new home sales early tomorrow, which will probably miss because of the long harsh winter. I feel whatever number given will.be cause to sell. It's not like Mother's Day, where we had POMO and the need to go to dinners over the weekend with something to brag about. VIX looks like a coiled spring now. It will be tested.

Thoughts?



When you say VIX looks like a coiled spring, you are using TA...

That is contradictory to your useless statement...

Edited by MikeyG, 22 May 2014 - 11:29 AM.

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#8 blustar

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 11:27 AM

Today market missed on Initial claims, won on continuing, missed on Existing Home Sales. Before Fed intervention, this would've been Thurs washout and Friday's wild card. Now we're in the contrarian bizzaro world that sets up bull and bear traps, regardless of TA charts (those things are really useless, so I don't know why they're posted so much). This is a sentimental market now.

We have new home sales early tomorrow, which will probably miss because of the long harsh winter. I feel whatever number given will.be cause to sell. It's not like Mother's Day, where we had POMO and the need to go to dinners over the weekend with something to brag about. VIX looks like a coiled spring now. It will be tested.

Thoughts?



When you sat VIX looks like a coiled spring, you are using TA...

That is contradictory to your useless statement...

Come now, let's be civil :)

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#9 Devastator91

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 11:34 AM

When you sat VIX looks like a coiled spring, you are using TA...

That is contradictory to your useless statement...

No I'm not. Just an eye test. Tell me the last time you won with TA? Yeah, thought so. I can tell when it's used and wrong on here, because this place is usually as dead as Wednesday nights church service. I see a lot of TA quotes on here, then a lot of dead air when it's usually wrong. I see UVXY is staying put for now and peeked to downside early today. VIX creeps back up on any buying weakness. Futures have rolled over and will be tested. Who really puts money where mouth is here? If you don't, you're useless and should just be called a Feckless Frontrunner.

#10 Harapa

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Posted 22 May 2014 - 11:45 AM

regardless of TA charts (those things are really useless, so I don't know why they're posted so much).
Thoughts?

I don't think this will make a one bit of difference, but this is TA as reported here live (since March 2013). Look at the STATs, if you wish to tear it apart.
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Could you have made money with it? that depends if you believe in TA.
The setup is open source, so it is a winner unless proven otherwise.

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