60 replies to this topic

[fib_1618]

The way I see this... A/D is not a PRICE TOOL...

it is a TREND INDICATOR...

You can only reach a desired destination (price projection) if you have enough fuel (money) to take you there.

Without this same fuel component, no matter how hard you step on the accelerator pedal, you're just not going to get there.

Fib

[SemiBizz]

The way I see this... A/D is not a PRICE TOOL...

it is a TREND INDICATOR...

You can only reach a desired destination (price projection) if you have enough fuel (money) to take you there.

Without this same fuel component, no matter how hard you step on the accelerator pedal, you're just not going to get there.

Fib

So all that tells you is information about how the airplane is flying, it doesn't determine destination, just how far you can fly.

[SemiBizz]

If you want to fly somewhere, all of that performance data is important, but more important is the map. The best determinant of PRICE in the market is PRICE History, not projection. All that is available to us on chart, so that's the map. If we run out of prices and they break lower or higher than historical, then we use projection. Other than that we don't try to plan new routes over proven successful flight paths.

[SemiBizz]

I study the history of the market.

and PRICE BEHAVIOR.

[SemiBizz]

I study the history of the market.

and PRICE BEHAVIOR.

Conventional wisdom would say the stocks of oil producers would rise proportionately to the oil price, right?

That isn't how it worked...

The XOI fell from the 5/21/2008 high of 1664 to the low in October 2008 at 744...

There were two words in the description of the asset class...

OIL and STOCKS...

That time it turned out the fact that these assets were STOCKS pull them into the quagmire...

We'll see how it turns out this time !

[colion]

You guys can argue all day long about which methodology makes more sense. However, all that matters is which produces better bottom line metrics. Absent that information this is an endless circle.

[mss]

You guys can argue all day long about which methodology makes more sense. However, all that matters is which produces better bottom line metrics. Absent that information this is an endless circle.

And that all depends on who is using it.

mss

[risk_management]

However, all that matters is which produces better bottom line metrics. Absent that information this is an endless circle.

I hear crickets.

[Dex]

In fact, there has NEVER been a time in the history of man where liquidity levels are as high as they are right now on both a domestic and global basis.

For those who may still be interested in the longer term contextual view of things after this long winded discussion...here you go.

Fib

We established in this thread that the a/d is not a measure of liquidity.

So ... why are you still saying that?

[fib_1618]

We established in this thread that the a/d is not a measure of liquidity.

So ... why are you still saying that?

"We", meaning YOU, may believe so, but any true technician with the understanding of market mechanics would disagree with your opinion.

Que Sera Sera.

Now, what we did establish, beyond a shadow of a doubt, is that using the CMF does NOT measure broad market liquidity.

So the question becomes...since you disagree, and the CMF doesn't fit the profile, what analytical tool do YOU use to establish the amount of money that's available to drive the stock market in one direction or the other?

Fib