11 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Finally the SSEC (Shanghai Composite Index) is at a bifurcation point, which means i now have a concrete bull-bear line. 3373 is now the bull-bear demarcation line for the SSEC. So we remain in a bull market as long as we trade above 3373. For those who are long term bullish investors (not traders), it's a great opportunity to buy and average down all the way to 3373. A break below 3373 would mean the start of a bear market and time to get the hell out of all investments. It's sort of like breaking SPX 1370 in 2008. A break below 3373 would mean China is headed to a economic depression.

[fib_1618]

Finally the SSEC (Shanghai Composite Index) is at a bifurcation point, which means i now have a concrete bull-bear line.

https://stockcharts....38445224457.png

[SemiBizz]

I am flying back on the new Dreamliner ( 787-900) from Shanghai at the moment after spending the last week in China on business. From what I saw this week in China, the goldbugs who think Chinese are going to buy gold are dreaming. It looks more like they are the ones that are SELLING it. I was just in China 8 weeks ago in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macau, and business was slow then, especially in Macau. Since then we had the Shanghai Crash, and this time the shopping malls were a ghost town... restaurants empty, even Starbucks empty. Carrefour, the Costco-like store near the hotel had few shoppers, this is on a Saturday, normally packed to the gills. Something very ugly is going on in China, and even in Shenzhen it was quiet. I think what happened is we remember hearing about all those huge numbers of new retail stock accounts being opened over this last year or so,... I suspect the market crash has put a damper on consumers. It was very eerie overall. We had dinner last night at the hotel restaurant... on a Friday night, and we were the ONLY diners in a huge restaurant. So if anyone is waiting for the Chinese to buy gold, you better think again, they aren't even buying McD burgers.

[barbu]

I am flying back on the new Dreamliner ( 787-900) from Shanghai at the moment after spending the last week in China on business. From what I saw this week in China, the goldbugs who think Chinese are going to buy gold are dreaming. It looks more like they are the ones that are SELLING it. I was just in China 8 weeks ago in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macau, and business was slow then, especially in Macau. Since then we had the Shanghai Crash, and this time the shopping malls were a ghost town... restaurants empty, even Starbucks empty. Carrefour, the Costco-like store near the hotel had few shoppers, this is on a Saturday, normally packed to the gills.

Something very ugly is going on in China, and even in Shenzhen it was quiet. I think what happened is we remember hearing about all those huge numbers of new retail stock accounts being opened over this last year or so,... I suspect the market crash has put a damper on consumers.

It was very eerie overall. We had dinner last night at the hotel restaurant... on a Friday night, and we were the ONLY diners in a huge restaurant.

So if anyone is waiting for the Chinese to buy gold, you better think again, they aren't even buying McD burgers.

It is the ghost month effect. ( https://en.wikipedia.../Ghost_Festival ), During the month, people avoid surgery, buying cars, .....
Then, here comes the Mid-Autumn Festival ( https://en.wikipedia...Autumn_Festival )

Edited by barbu, 01 August 2015 - 12:03 PM.

[brucekeller]

I am flying back on the new Dreamliner ( 787-900) from Shanghai at the moment after spending the last week in China on business. From what I saw this week in China, the goldbugs who think Chinese are going to buy gold are dreaming. It looks more like they are the ones that are SELLING it. I was just in China 8 weeks ago in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macau, and business was slow then, especially in Macau. Since then we had the Shanghai Crash, and this time the shopping malls were a ghost town... restaurants empty, even Starbucks empty. Carrefour, the Costco-like store near the hotel had few shoppers, this is on a Saturday, normally packed to the gills.

Something very ugly is going on in China, and even in Shenzhen it was quiet. I think what happened is we remember hearing about all those huge numbers of new retail stock accounts being opened over this last year or so,... I suspect the market crash has put a damper on consumers.

It was very eerie overall. We had dinner last night at the hotel restaurant... on a Friday night, and we were the ONLY diners in a huge restaurant.

So if anyone is waiting for the Chinese to buy gold, you better think again, they aren't even buying McD burgers.

Hrm. Makes it look like a break under is more likely. I wonder if our markets could really handle it? We handled Japan okay(went opposite direction) in the early 90's besides the dip late 1990. I suppose all that money would have to go somewhere. Should be interesting to see how it all plays out.

[fib_1618]

....and even in Shenzhen it was quiet.

I can confirm that...orders that used to take 2 weeks to turn are being sent literally the same day.

Can't ever remember such a quick turnaround except after the 2008 crash...must be lots of inventory needing to sell off the shelves.

Fib

[AChartist]

My quarterly looks like mid 2017, it is monthly that has mid 2016 low followed by another low that could be higher. The detrended is holding a relatively higher level. It depends if it can do any good in this 18 month high at 3 months. It is 16.168 and 27 year cycle low at mid 2017. Log Detrended has more potential for better prices and is below trend which can regress up some.

[pdx5]

I am flying back on the new Dreamliner ( 787-900) from Shanghai at the moment after spending the last week in China on business. From what I saw this week in China, the goldbugs who think Chinese are going to buy gold are dreaming. It looks more like they are the ones that are SELLING it. I was just in China 8 weeks ago in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macau, and business was slow then, especially in Macau. Since then we had the Shanghai Crash, and this time the shopping malls were a ghost town... restaurants empty, even Starbucks empty. Carrefour, the Costco-like store near the hotel had few shoppers, this is on a Saturday, normally packed to the gills.

Something very ugly is going on in China, and even in Shenzhen it was quiet. I think what happened is we remember hearing about all those huge numbers of new retail stock accounts being opened over this last year or so,... I suspect the market crash has put a damper on consumers.

It was very eerie overall. We had dinner last night at the hotel restaurant... on a Friday night, and we were the ONLY diners in a huge restaurant.

So if anyone is waiting for the Chinese to buy gold, you better think again, they aren't even buying McD burgers.

Appreciate your first hand reports from China. Very interesting.

[SemiBizz]

It is the ghost month effect. ( https://en.wikipedia.../Ghost_Festival ), During the month, people avoid surgery, buying cars, .....

Nice Try - From your link:

This article is about the Chinese festival. For the festival in the Thai province of Loei,

Also doesn't explain the malaise I saw 8 weeks ago.

If they build it... will they come?, China Trip Brief

They Built it and They didn't come, China Report Part 2 - Macau

China Trip - Part 3, A day of business in Hong Kong

[SemiBizz]

I am flying back on the new Dreamliner ( 787-900) from Shanghai at the moment after spending the last week in China on business. From what I saw this week in China, the goldbugs who think Chinese are going to buy gold are dreaming. It looks more like they are the ones that are SELLING it. I was just in China 8 weeks ago in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macau, and business was slow then, especially in Macau. Since then we had the Shanghai Crash, and this time the shopping malls were a ghost town... restaurants empty, even Starbucks empty. Carrefour, the Costco-like store near the hotel had few shoppers, this is on a Saturday, normally packed to the gills.

Something very ugly is going on in China, and even in Shenzhen it was quiet. I think what happened is we remember hearing about all those huge numbers of new retail stock accounts being opened over this last year or so,... I suspect the market crash has put a damper on consumers.

It was very eerie overall. We had dinner last night at the hotel restaurant... on a Friday night, and we were the ONLY diners in a huge restaurant.

So if anyone is waiting for the Chinese to buy gold, you better think again, they aren't even buying McD burgers.

Appreciate your first hand reports from China. Very interesting.

I have another trip coming up in the next couple of months, I will take a fresh look and another crane count from the Pudong Airport to downtown again...