SHANGHAI
#1
Posted 01 August 2015 - 10:28 AM
#2
Posted 01 August 2015 - 11:08 AM
https://stockcharts....38445224457.pngFinally the SSEC (Shanghai Composite Index) is at a bifurcation point, which means i now have a concrete bull-bear line.
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
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#3
Posted 01 August 2015 - 11:13 AM
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#4
Posted 01 August 2015 - 12:03 PM
I am flying back on the new Dreamliner ( 787-900) from Shanghai at the moment after spending the last week in China on business. From what I saw this week in China, the goldbugs who think Chinese are going to buy gold are dreaming. It looks more like they are the ones that are SELLING it. I was just in China 8 weeks ago in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macau, and business was slow then, especially in Macau. Since then we had the Shanghai Crash, and this time the shopping malls were a ghost town... restaurants empty, even Starbucks empty. Carrefour, the Costco-like store near the hotel had few shoppers, this is on a Saturday, normally packed to the gills.
Something very ugly is going on in China, and even in Shenzhen it was quiet. I think what happened is we remember hearing about all those huge numbers of new retail stock accounts being opened over this last year or so,... I suspect the market crash has put a damper on consumers.
It was very eerie overall. We had dinner last night at the hotel restaurant... on a Friday night, and we were the ONLY diners in a huge restaurant.
So if anyone is waiting for the Chinese to buy gold, you better think again, they aren't even buying McD burgers.
It is the ghost month effect. ( https://en.wikipedia.../Ghost_Festival ), During the month, people avoid surgery, buying cars, .....
Then, here comes the Mid-Autumn Festival ( https://en.wikipedia...Autumn_Festival )
Edited by barbu, 01 August 2015 - 12:03 PM.
#5
Posted 01 August 2015 - 12:08 PM
I am flying back on the new Dreamliner ( 787-900) from Shanghai at the moment after spending the last week in China on business. From what I saw this week in China, the goldbugs who think Chinese are going to buy gold are dreaming. It looks more like they are the ones that are SELLING it. I was just in China 8 weeks ago in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macau, and business was slow then, especially in Macau. Since then we had the Shanghai Crash, and this time the shopping malls were a ghost town... restaurants empty, even Starbucks empty. Carrefour, the Costco-like store near the hotel had few shoppers, this is on a Saturday, normally packed to the gills.
Something very ugly is going on in China, and even in Shenzhen it was quiet. I think what happened is we remember hearing about all those huge numbers of new retail stock accounts being opened over this last year or so,... I suspect the market crash has put a damper on consumers.
It was very eerie overall. We had dinner last night at the hotel restaurant... on a Friday night, and we were the ONLY diners in a huge restaurant.
So if anyone is waiting for the Chinese to buy gold, you better think again, they aren't even buying McD burgers.
Hrm. Makes it look like a break under is more likely. I wonder if our markets could really handle it? We handled Japan okay(went opposite direction) in the early 90's besides the dip late 1990. I suppose all that money would have to go somewhere. Should be interesting to see how it all plays out.
#6
Posted 01 August 2015 - 12:44 PM
I can confirm that...orders that used to take 2 weeks to turn are being sent literally the same day.....and even in Shenzhen it was quiet.
Can't ever remember such a quick turnaround except after the 2008 crash...must be lots of inventory needing to sell off the shelves.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
Technical Watch Subscriptions
#7
Posted 01 August 2015 - 12:58 PM
"marxism-lennonism-communism always fails and never worked, because I know
some of them, and they don't work" M.Jordan
#8
Posted 01 August 2015 - 01:18 PM
I am flying back on the new Dreamliner ( 787-900) from Shanghai at the moment after spending the last week in China on business. From what I saw this week in China, the goldbugs who think Chinese are going to buy gold are dreaming. It looks more like they are the ones that are SELLING it. I was just in China 8 weeks ago in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macau, and business was slow then, especially in Macau. Since then we had the Shanghai Crash, and this time the shopping malls were a ghost town... restaurants empty, even Starbucks empty. Carrefour, the Costco-like store near the hotel had few shoppers, this is on a Saturday, normally packed to the gills.
Something very ugly is going on in China, and even in Shenzhen it was quiet. I think what happened is we remember hearing about all those huge numbers of new retail stock accounts being opened over this last year or so,... I suspect the market crash has put a damper on consumers.
It was very eerie overall. We had dinner last night at the hotel restaurant... on a Friday night, and we were the ONLY diners in a huge restaurant.
So if anyone is waiting for the Chinese to buy gold, you better think again, they aren't even buying McD burgers.
Appreciate your first hand reports from China. Very interesting.
#9
Posted 01 August 2015 - 01:38 PM
It is the ghost month effect. ( https://en.wikipedia.../Ghost_Festival ), During the month, people avoid surgery, buying cars, .....
Nice Try - From your link:
This article is about the Chinese festival. For the festival in the Thai province of Loei,
Also doesn't explain the malaise I saw 8 weeks ago.
If they build it... will they come?, China Trip Brief
They Built it and They didn't come, China Report Part 2 - Macau
China Trip - Part 3, A day of business in Hong Kong
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#10
Posted 01 August 2015 - 01:55 PM
I am flying back on the new Dreamliner ( 787-900) from Shanghai at the moment after spending the last week in China on business. From what I saw this week in China, the goldbugs who think Chinese are going to buy gold are dreaming. It looks more like they are the ones that are SELLING it. I was just in China 8 weeks ago in Shanghai, Hong Kong and Macau, and business was slow then, especially in Macau. Since then we had the Shanghai Crash, and this time the shopping malls were a ghost town... restaurants empty, even Starbucks empty. Carrefour, the Costco-like store near the hotel had few shoppers, this is on a Saturday, normally packed to the gills.
Something very ugly is going on in China, and even in Shenzhen it was quiet. I think what happened is we remember hearing about all those huge numbers of new retail stock accounts being opened over this last year or so,... I suspect the market crash has put a damper on consumers.
It was very eerie overall. We had dinner last night at the hotel restaurant... on a Friday night, and we were the ONLY diners in a huge restaurant.
So if anyone is waiting for the Chinese to buy gold, you better think again, they aren't even buying McD burgers.
Appreciate your first hand reports from China. Very interesting.
I have another trip coming up in the next couple of months, I will take a fresh look and another crane count from the Pudong Airport to downtown again...
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics