5 replies to this topic

[Ticker]

I don't think the downside is done yet even in the short term.  We should go down to 1850 and make a bounce at that point.  If no bounce there then down to 1820.  The channel lines are setting up very well from the December top to the recent tops.  I think the most likely outcome is to the downside.  Long term target in around 1700 ES.

 

I like to keep it simple. 

 

[Ticker]

Crude oil short term target 28.48.  Beyond that point it is a bit unclear.  Will continue to short the bounces on crude until we break out of the downtrend.

 

[Ticker]

Oil ETFs - OIH and XLE are still firmly in their downtrends.  FCG however is intriguing.  There is a large bearish wedge and a breakout would confirm a bottom with significant upside.  It has not yet broken out.  There is a triangle forming.  I bought FCG recently if the triangle breaks to the downside I will sell.  If we break to the downside then FCG has significant downside left even at these oversold levels.  I don't think the markets have factored in all the imminent bankruptcies in the sector.  My impression is that I will sell and buy back at lower levels.

 

[Ticker]

I have a pension plan at work.  Unfortunately all trades cost at least 1-2%.  I sold all my equity holdings last year around August and November - LNKD, AMZN, AAPL, oil stocks, COST, TGT, MFC, DE  etc.  I am really glad I bit the bullet and sold last year.  Especially LNKD which my financial adviser talked me into buying......  This is of course separate from my trading account.

Last week I did buy GDX in the pension plan.  I think we have a real breakout here.  I am in for the long term with GDX.  Still mostly in cash in the pension plan.

 

 

Edited by Ticker, 07 February 2016 - 02:38 PM.

[Ticker]

Covered half my es short at 1855. Will cover the other half at 1838.75. Still waiting to cover crude short. Target on crude remains the same. Gold looking good.

[Ticker]

Covered all the ES shorts.  I think this is a good place to bounce.  We will see.