25 replies to this topic

[EntropyModel]

Previous comments:

http://www.traders-t...ments/?p=742306

"Posted 26 February 2016 - 01:23 PM

I now have an hourly sell signal - so its possible we don't test 1970 ...

btm line -  bearish now ST here into monday."

 

Pretty lame sell off so far - the hourly signal is pretty mixed now but not turn to buy yet, so still have potential but

certainly not looking like we'll get much of a sell off

 I have 1935 as strong support today.

If we got under 1930, my system says swing high is high odds in.

 

I shorted near the close friday, i'll hold it until near the close..then assess, but I won't hold into tue if we retake 1950 by the close.

 

[gannman]

the banks are starting to roll over . once they go they should lead the decline i have this

wave down in the banks as wave v to complete wave 1 fwiw

[EntropyModel]

I will hold short into tomorrow AM ...got 20pt now back to break even if it gaps up ...but if gaps down, cd run a long way so

risk/reward is good.  I don't like that hourly signal is bottoming but don't have clear exit so sit tight  ( the hard part :-) )

Edited by Entropy2.0, 29 February 2016 - 04:54 PM.

[alexnewbee]

short Eurobund 166,47

think shorting bonds gives better opportunity here.

[EntropyModel]

Some weird stuff with the gap up this AM - alot of whipsaws on my signals,  quite rare.

 

My stop is just above recent highs around 1970 - i've got short term sell here, i'll let that play out

and see where its at - most likely I get stopped out because signals are not acting normal which

usually occcurs on 'wacko' days where we just go up against all reliable signals...but we'll see.

[EntropyModel]

looks very bad for the IT/Swing bear case here -

 - i've got multiple failed short term signal ..VERY rare ..only seen in 'surprise' type up moves

 - tons of weird data - freak ISEE numbers, Trin today..also seen in 'surprise' moves.

 

To my eye, this is either a blow off move than will reverse hard...or start of 'the' up move to wipe out all the bears/shorts.

 

I'll either get stopped out or not, but I won't take any new positions for a day because all my signals have been whipsawed to death here

and will need to normalize.

[EntropyModel]

One hell of a short trap - jam job today ..nice setup with the sharp down move into the close yesterday..suckered me into holding overnight, rare

that I get suckered these days but they got me with the relentless jam up today.

 

I believe we went from 12-1pm without >1pt drop LOL , and 2 hour with 2pt....'bots having fun with mega liquidity today ( HYG up big for few days)

 

TO me  failing reliable ST sell signal = buy signals and so far, its a trend up day.

 

Can't win 'em all here, so I will take my poison near the close, but i'll let it run until then...because

 - very rarely do we gain more than 2% on a day at this point in an move .... of course, today cd be different because its 'special' ( fill in ur favorite theory as to why,

it doesn't matter to me ..I just follow a system that works pretty well and doesn't care about why).

 - i've got sell signals ( that have worked evn on jam job days) to at least slow down the ascent/or get a 5-10pt pullback

 - i'm within my 1% stop ( just)

Edited by Entropy2.0, 01 March 2016 - 01:20 PM.

[EntropyModel]

I decided to hold into today...for lots of reasons I don't have time to explain this AM - This is more about trade management than signals here..

 I expect we'll go a bit high 1980's...but there's a high odds of a reversal back to 1960 even if we then go higher for a better exit.

But there is also reasonable setups/odds for catching the swing high here. 

Edited by Entropy2.0, 02 March 2016 - 09:16 AM.

[EntropyModel]

Haven't had time to post - busy week.

 

Not much to add:

 

My read here is -

i've got 2 high odds setups
1 - we get strong reversal here, and IT top is in ...down to new lows under 1800.
2- we chop around ..to 1970-1975 over whole week ...then up to new high for move 2020-2040 1-2 weeks after ..to IT top.

2 is looking much high odds than 1 at the moment.

 

we in a 'corrective' highest odds ( see 2 above) that will eventually test 1970 area ...then likely go up again BUT
- If we test it quickly i.e. tue ... then, chances increase of (1) and we get a gap down here and IT high is in.

I shorted 1950 last week for a trade ...small one, that is now a 1/2 position for a swing/IT short ..I won't add unless we break 1970...I won't cover unless
I see a big change (very unlikely)...most likely I will hedge at 1970 if I get buys ..so for now, just practicing patience to wait a see.

So on ST today..It quite important where we close..if we somehow break todays low, or close at the lows...bearish odds increase,
if we rally again..likely more days of chop at 2000 area.

[EntropyModel]

Critical next 1 hour .... got ST buys..they have been bought every time for last forever ..so, if the trend is changing to down, need to see one of them fail.

Either way 1980-1983 is key support for the up move ST, and then 1970 last support as I see it ..I'm expecting a turn back up from one of these, but if
they fail, swing or IT high is high odds in.