Member
Posted 04 March 2016 - 08:52 AM
SwissTrader,
Depends on how you quantify it. Based on my monthly trends, here it is:
SSEC (Shanghai composite) - Bear
S&P - Bear
NYA - Bear
RUT - Bear
BKX - Bear
Nifty (India) - Bear
DOW - Bull
Nasdaq - Bull
If your measures says it's a bull, that's fine. Trend is not an absolute concept.
Anyway nobody here plays monthly trends - Nobody.
Member
Posted 04 March 2016 - 10:29 AM
SwissTrader,
Depends on how you quantify it. Based on my monthly trends, here it is:
SSEC (Shanghai composite) - Bear
S&P - Bear
NYA - Bear
RUT - Bear
BKX - Bear
Nifty (India) - Bear
DOW - Bull
Nasdaq - Bull
If your measures says it's a bull, that's fine. Trend is not an absolute concept.
Anyway nobody here plays monthly trends - Nobody.
Could you post a chart (at least for the S&P 500) so I can understand your measures?
TIA
Edited by Swiss Trader, 04 March 2016 - 10:30 AM.
Volume Dynamics Specialist
Posted 04 March 2016 - 10:41 AM
For the moment - Silence is GOLD-en
Member
Posted 04 March 2016 - 11:13 AM
SwissTrader,
Here's a post where i explained how i measure it.
http://www.traders-t...1310-jdjimenez/
TRIN_Rida
Posted 04 March 2016 - 11:18 AM
The reality is, almost no one is swing trading very long term. Lets get real: very long term charts and conservative money management would have got you out of this market sometime in September 2015. There has been no signal to get back in.
What I find comical, is that people were already almost universally calling this 2008 and fearmongering to the max-Q when SPX hadn't even broken 1800. Until we go back and test 2013 breakout levels in SPX around 1575 or so and then BREAKDOWN, you cannot truly say market is broken. We broke out of near 15 year sideways market in 2013 and until that has been tested and broken, it should be respected.
My guess is that we are going to see 1600-1800 chopped to death and it is not going to be all dips n' rips, but a hard, long boring chop as we work through those areas that have been UNTESTED from 2013 and SPX has never spent any time at those levels. This was the same thing I said 12/29/2015 on here although I was using RUT for reference.
But the point is, you simply CANNOT fearmonger at lows and then take 200 point SPX rips in the face and not own up to it. You cannot preach one thing into major turns and then flip around after it starts going down again and say 'yeah like I said'. If you said, in Sept 2015, 'this is a bear, things have turned down', well fine. In Jan 2015, if you had said 'longer term bear, until we take out 2015 highs', well fine. But what you cannot do is talk fire and brimstone into 200 point SPX rips.
As far as gold miners go, they went down too low, it became asymmetrical to reality and caused a major rip and turn up. End of story. Same with lots of E&P companies.
Edited by viccarter, 04 March 2016 - 11:20 AM.
Member
Posted 04 March 2016 - 11:50 AM
Added note:
The last two times NYSE margin debt went astronomical (2000 and 2007, of course). and began to unravel it was about 800 points down on the SPX from its highs. So here we are again with margin debt having gone even more astronomical in 2015 and now apparently unraveling again and since margin calls tend to snowball, it would appear that at the least we may see a 1400 on the SPX about the time or shortly after President Trump takes office. 
Edited by diogenes227, 04 March 2016 - 11:51 AM.
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
Member
Posted 04 March 2016 - 12:00 PM
Added note:
The last two times NYSE margin debt went astronomical (2000 and 2007, of course). and began to unravel it was about 800 points down on the SPX from its highs. So here we are again with margin debt having gone even more astronomical in 2015 and now apparently unraveling again and since margin calls tend to snowball, it would appear that at the least we may see a 1400 on the SPX about the time or shortly after President Trump takes office.
Fabulous chart.
Member
Posted 05 March 2016 - 06:05 AM
SwissTrader,
Here's a post where i explained how i measure it.
So why the Nasdaq and the Dow are in a bull market and the SP500 is a bear?
Edited by Swiss Trader, 05 March 2016 - 06:09 AM.
Member
Posted 05 March 2016 - 08:34 AM
SwissTrader,
Here's a post where i explained how i measure it.
So why the Nasdaq and the Dow are in a bull market and the SP500 is a bear?
to hide weekness. they are holding a handfull of stocks to disguise selling behind the screen.
Member
Posted 05 March 2016 - 12:00 PM
Swisstrader,
The trigger candle is the one which closes below the ATR channel. Once we trade below the trigger candle low, the bear is confirmed. The low of the candle is still not breached on Nasdaq and DOW.
