6 replies to this topic

[kssmibotm]

I updated the bear market roadmap to show the latest 2016 performance in green and the 2008 analog in blue.  The labels A-E identify key turning points in 2008.  The counter trend rally from turning point C to point D has extended well beyond it's ideal time and price targets.  It's been fun while it lasted, but the 2008 analog appears to be broken. If we don't see a sharp selloff next week, then I am inclined to say adios to the '08 roadmap.

 

[viccarter]

Thought this was an interesting chart.  If history is a guide, the likelihood is that we will be higher over next 3 months or so.  Just food for thought.

 

 

Edited by viccarter, 05 March 2016 - 01:56 PM.

[kssmibotm]

Vic - the strength of this "counter-trend" rally concerns me.  I wonder if it is truly counter-trend?

 

I see that the 75-85 day holding period was profitable 93% of the time.  Do you know the instances that holding period was unprofitable?

[gannman]

i dont believe this is a counter trend rally fwiw. but i do believe after this rally ends we will see a true impulse wave to the down side and that the banks especilally will be devastated

 

watching the bkx at its 200 dma

[barbu]

i dont believe this is a counter trend rally fwiw. but i do believe after this rally ends we will see a true impulse wave to the down side and that the banks especilally will be devastated

 

watching the bkx at its 200 dma

 

FWIW

 

DecisionPoint Market Scoreboard:  http://stockcharts.c.../dpgallery.html

 

A summary of the DecisionPoint signals from the Market Trend charts below:

 

chart::http://forexrainbow....48692554448.jpg

 

 

 

 

DecisionPoint

STOCKS: Looking Long-Term

Carl Swenlin | February 27, 2016 at 11:16 PM

http://stockcharts.c...-long-term.html

 

CONCLUSION: Today the monthly PMO confirms many other indications that a bear market is in progress.  While it is possible for a reversal to take place, that is not typically what happens with a PMO configuration sporting a smooth PMO top, downside crossover, and extended drawdown, such as we currently have. I anticipate an outcome that resembles the declines from the 2000 and 2007 market tops. That is to say that the monthly PMO should continue downward and possibly cross down through the zero line before a long-term price bottom forms.

[viccarter]

Vic - the strength of this "counter-trend" rally concerns me.  I wonder if it is truly counter-trend?

 

I see that the 75-85 day holding period was profitable 93% of the time.  Do you know the instances that holding period was unprofitable?

No, unfortunately not my chart.  Saw it posted by respected trader on Twitter.

[Data]

It's started to diverge from the 2001 and 2008 charts, and converge with the 2000 chart.

 

http://www.mrci.com/special/wspi00.php

 

If you like analogs, there's a possibility that it's tracing out a large triple top similar to the smaller triple tops in May-July 2015 and October-December 2015.  In that case, the three tops would be formed from March through May before a large drop.  The highs would be around 2100-2070.  

 

Both McClellan and DeMark were looking for a peak last week, a new low in April, and a new all-time high after that.

Edited by Data, 06 March 2016 - 09:45 AM.