8 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

For awhile it looked like the market was waiting on something... it's not.  We get news and reports, but nothing seems to spark any volume.  Light volume is good for the bull... We have light volume and yet there's no juice to move this thing higher...  Why?  Because we are at an equilibrium.  The bankers are buying just enough to hold it up and no more... 

 

News doesn't move it.  Remember the London and Madrid Bombings?  Those events moved markets, today we see the Belgium bombings get barely a blip, and the dip is immediately "bought" (by bankers).  So nothing shocks the market anymore - human beheadings, blood in the streets around the World, nothing.  Which leads us to a conclusion about the "markets" ... that they are in the control of computers, and computers have no emotion, are unshockable and are only going to respond to numerically quantifiable events. 

 

We have no way of knowing what will bring those programs to life to cause those events, but we do have a tool to measure it, and that is volume...  Today may be the last day of holiday volume as we move into Smellin's speech tomorrow, Oil Report Wednesday, Quarter end on Thursday and the Jobs report on Friday.

 

In the meantime as long as this stays like this on light volume, markets will just continue to back and fill as the banker buy programs soak up any excess light volume selling pressures.  This is a very sick market and when the volume finally comes, it might not let up for weeks as we plunge day after day.

 

This is a bear market rally without a bear market right now...  We haven't seen the PRICE SEPARATION yet from the highs, as we touch 20% decline levels in some indices and then volume dries up as the 5 guys on Wall Street that move markets -  behind the computers wait to see what the other guy does.  If Jones sells, so will Smith... but if Smith and Jones don't sell, Miller may start buying, and once the buying begins, it's a race to grab up "cheap" shares... but look what happened - we hit a BRICK WALL.  So Smith, Jones and Miller are no longer buying, just trying to make it through the end of the Quarter and that's when we could see the selling start. 

 

 

 

 

[alexnewbee]

my 2 cents - crowd is quite prepared that 2050 was the top (ZH, CNBC etc.) based on moving average and some other technical stuff. so moving  market above it would be quite profitable for those who can do it, and will aslo help to generate some volume to sell into. So target 2075 +- and reverse it there. 

Just IMHO

[Sentient Being]

I like your comment regarding "This is a bear market rally without a bear market right now."

 

It sure started out as what appeared to be a bear market rally but where is the bear now?

 

I'm still on the side It's not quite a buy yet for me.  It's sitting on the buy sell line and needs to move off it, up, show some strength to get me in.

[CRUISENAL]

For me it is about a monthly closing below the 20 at 2032.63 now. IF we get that on Thursday's close, then for me the odds say Down. That would suggest going lower in April and May and then reverse in June into mid July and the down allot more. 

 

But proof is in Price & Time. 

[kinga200]

For awhile it looked like the market was waiting on something... it's not.  We get news and reports, but nothing seems to spark any volume.  Light volume is good for the bull... We have light volume and yet there's no juice to move this thing higher...  Why?  Because we are at an equilibrium.  The bankers are buying just enough to hold it up and no more... 

 

News doesn't move it.  Remember the London and Madrid Bombings?  Those events moved markets, today we see the Belgium bombings get barely a blip, and the dip is immediately "bought" (by bankers).  So nothing shocks the market anymore - human beheadings, blood in the streets around the World, nothing.  Which leads us to a conclusion about the "markets" ... that they are in the control of computers, and computers have no emotion, are unshockable and are only going to respond to numerically quantifiable events. 

 

We have no way of knowing what will bring those programs to life to cause those events, but we do have a tool to measure it, and that is volume...  Today may be the last day of holiday volume as we move into Smellin's speech tomorrow, Oil Report Wednesday, Quarter end on Thursday and the Jobs report on Friday.

 

In the meantime as long as this stays like this on light volume, markets will just continue to back and fill as the banker buy programs soak up any excess light volume selling pressures.  This is a very sick market and when the volume finally comes, it might not let up for weeks as we plunge day after day.

 

This is a bear market rally without a bear market right now...  We haven't seen the PRICE SEPARATION yet from the highs, as we touch 20% decline levels in some indices and then volume dries up as the 5 guys on Wall Street that move markets -  behind the computers wait to see what the other guy does.  If Jones sells, so will Smith... but if Smith and Jones don't sell, Miller may start buying, and once the buying begins, it's a race to grab up "cheap" shares... but look what happened - we hit a BRICK WALL.  So Smith, Jones and Miller are no longer buying, just trying to make it through the end of the Quarter and that's when we could see the selling start. 

 

 

 

 

Great work Semi!!

[dasein]

Semi - you really pull it all together with deft insight - thanks

[Douglas]

Welcome to Teddy Bear and Baby Bull markets in the age of ZIRP/NIRP.  Like all "living" organisms in a new environment, Investors have evolved, gradually adjusting to the FED/ECB/BOJ no or negative interest rate world we live in.  The Yield Hunger Games orchestrated by central banks that always have your back in a sell off, kill bears on sight, encourage stock by-backs, and discourage brick and mortar economic growth have changed investors response to events and a lack of earnings. 

 

I suspect that the counter move to Teddy Bear markets will be Baby Bull markets which there is a good chance we are currently experiencing.  These Baby Bulls will also be disappointing to long term investors.  The result is a stagnant market with modest swings down followed by modest swings back up.     

 

Ultimately, like the giant lizards that once evolved to rule this world, I believe these newly evolved dip buying/top selling investors will also go extinct when a giant black swan inflation reality meteor of sufficient size plows into Wall Street collapsing the central banker interest rate controlled environment.  The burning question is when.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

[redfoliage2]

The situation will change late in the week, as soon as Wednesday when both the monthly and weekly OpEx loom........

Edited by redfoliage2, 29 March 2016 - 08:40 AM.

[risk_management]

Welcome to Teddy Bear and Baby Bull markets in the age of ZIRP/NIRP.  Like all "living" organisms in a new environment, Investors have evolved, gradually adjusting to the FED/ECB/BOJ no or negative interest rate world we live in.  The Yield Hunger Games orchestrated by central banks that always have your back in a sell off, kill bears on sight, encourage stock by-backs, and discourage brick and mortar economic growth have changed investors response to events and a lack of earnings. 

 

I suspect that the counter move to Teddy Bear markets will be Baby Bull markets which there is a good chance we are currently experiencing.  These Baby Bulls will also be disappointing to long term investors.  The result is a stagnant market with modest swings down followed by modest swings back up.     

 

Ultimately, like the giant lizards that once evolved to rule this world, I believe these newly evolved dip buying/top selling investors will also go extinct when a giant black swan inflation reality meteor of sufficient size plows into Wall Street collapsing the central banker interest rate controlled environment.  The burning question is when.  

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

From technical perspective, markets are the same as they've ever been but that's a great explanation of what's currently happening.