9 replies to this topic

[SemiBizz]

Game never changes, here we are end of the quarter another miracle... we have the EUR$ back at 1.14s now as the US$ is the sacrificial lamb for another big equity spike to close the quarter.  It's all in the plan.  Gold spikes overnight as the Dollar plunges, and starting tomorrow we can expect the F'ed hawks to get right back out there and spin the other side of the story...

 

Net/Net, why did the F'eds cool off the rate hikes?  Could it be political?  Yes it could.  I'm pretty sure that the guy they are so afraid of taking the presidency is going to do it anyway.  How can I tell?  Because look at all the desperation measures being taken to stop it.  I mean when your own party turns on you that is DESPERATE.  Look I don't care about the politics of this, I'm pointing out the desperation of it all.. and how all the King's men(and women) are doing their best to keep humpty dumpty from dumping all over them.  Janet Yellen is just a puppet on the end of a string, not the one holding the strings. 

 

Getting back to the story though, see they can't do anything but punch up the market, they have a patented method they apply of continuously running the sheep from one end of the pasture to the other.  That's why this market is made to be TRADED, not held.  Just as soon as everyone gets bullish again, down we go.

 

We have a quarterly and annual funding and re-funding cycle that begins in April, study the charts on Aprils, you are going to see a lot of volatility over history.  So bottom line.. DO NOT BE A BELIEVER, and that means  DON'T BE A BULL OR A BEAR - you are playing into the object of the game, to convince you that there is really a future in QE, Negative Rates and currency manipulation... that it is the new definer of "growth".  It isn't, Up is still up and not down, Down is still down and not up.. Truth is still truth and lies are lies. 

 

Trade this pile of crap, because it's a game of rotating musical chairs and not some kind of American Dream that is being presented here...

 

Remember, the only way you can lose ... is to be IN the market.  Take the honey and flee the bees, because if you hang around waiting for more YOU WILL BE STUNG.

 

[SemiBizz]

Now what we have here is the POINT OF DEPARTURE shown on this chart below... the horizontal line at approximately 4872 represents the .618R level of the Move DOWN in AUGUST 2016.  You can easily see from the chart below how it roughly defines NORTH and SOUTH Trading Regions on the Nasdaq Daily Chart.  I pointed this out yesterday here, now you can graphically see how this Fib Pivot figures into trading and direction...

 

Edited by SemiBizz, 31 March 2016 - 10:24 AM.

[SemiBizz]

THERE IS NO VOLUME IN THE MARKETS....

 

That means the 5 guys who run Wall Street are running out of maneuvering room...

 

They don't care if we BUY OR SELL... they just want SIZE...

 

And there is NONE to be had.

 

And Paranoia Strikes Deep.

 

The volume is going to come and all hell will break loose...

 

In the meantime, odds of success in trading this buzz saw are slim.

 

If you like slim odds and have a need to be challenged, it's great for trading in hummingbird heartbeat time frames...

 

Perfectly suited for computers, but not humans.

 

Until you see VOLUME, we won't have ODDS...

 

And those 5 guys are going to SELL if we don't BUY

 

and BUY if we don't SELL...

[alexnewbee]

excuse my ignorance, but who are these 5 guys?

[SemiBizz]

Well, one of them is an Icon... er I mean Icahn.

[alexnewbee]

and rest: Edward Johnson III, F. William McNabb III and Laurence Fink ?

Edited by alexnewbee, 31 March 2016 - 12:52 PM.

[viccarter]

THERE IS NO VOLUME IN THE MARKETS....

 

That means the 5 guys who run Wall Street are running out of maneuvering room...

 

They don't care if we BUY OR SELL... they just want SIZE...

 

And there is NONE to be had.

 

And Paranoia Strikes Deep.

 

The volume is going to come and all hell will break loose...

 

In the meantime, odds of success in trading this buzz saw are slim.

 

If you like slim odds and have a need to be challenged, it's great for trading in hummingbird heartbeat time frames...

 

Perfectly suited for computers, but not humans.

 

Until you see VOLUME, we won't have ODDS...

 

And those 5 guys are going to SELL if we don't BUY

 

and BUY if we don't SELL...

The operators already made their move, which was to take profits Tuesday afternoon.  Now we just have a little bit of waiting for news and the like.  This might take anywhere from a few days to a week.  We might need a decent day down and then a rebound day for the operators to really get short.

 

It is also important to watch the oil complex here.  We may or may not finally see crude and independent oil and gas decouple from the overall market.  Alotta charts have been consolidating and digesting the early March move that broke the oil bears.  So this is something to note, if oil decouples and pushes on upward (and when I say oil I mean oil companies not actual crude, although we know there is a lot of correlation like with gold miners and gold), then it will be the big long that money will flow to.

[Data]

Energy has reversed down on the Bullish Percent chart.  $BPENER printed ifs first column of three O's.  Two more oilfield services stocks, CAM and ESV, are dropping out of the S&P 500 index this week.

[viccarter]

Energy has reversed down on the Bullish Percent chart.  $BPENER printed ifs first column of three O's.  Two more oilfield services stocks, CAM and ESV, are dropping out of the S&P 500 index this week.

 

Yeah, I just watch a lot of oil co's, mostly mid and small caps, although alot of what used to be midcaps is now small caps.  I follow 150+ names, but I don't really keep up or trade the bigger stuff like XOM, CVX, SLB, etc.  If its in the XLE, I probably don't pay too much attn.  I'm just seeing 100 names consolidate the early March run up.

 

Will they break out or retest lows?  Truly I don't know.  I am already short RUT from Wednesday morning 1/2 a position, so obviously I am betting on the market turning over.  I don't want to be caught in oil and gas names if they crack, so I am steering clear for now.  But still watching very closely.  They are acting like they want to break up for another leg, but it remains to be seen how they act during a big down day that I think is coming soon.

 

So really, I don't have my answer yet, but if they can withstand the start of a downtrend, they are going much higher.

 

I think 2morrow or Monday is gonna breakdown the indices.

[dasein]

Corn and grains broke down - this can correlate to oil