30 replies to this topic

[NAV]

Some of the thread titles in the last 2 days...

 

Super Bullish case

Next Bullish Elliot wave

Potential 3rd of 3rd in India

Pretty clear this is a wave 3

3500 target by TSharp

Long term bulls coming out of woodwork.

Permabear folks talking bullish outcomes

 

This kind of sentiment on this board is generally a fade !. 

 

Yes the stock markets across the globe are near a long term bifurcation point i.e. the monthly trends which were down a few months back are about to turn back up. The breakout to ATH has gotten everyone bullish. If you are a short term player, yes you should be bullish, in fact it has been bullish since SPX 2017. For the long term, a little bit of patience is required here.

 

Firstly we need a monthly close above SPX 2120 in July. Once that happens we would need a breakout above July high to signal a new leg of bull market. Barring this, the bear will resume. Remember "NEVER FADE A MONTHLY BREAKOUT" (like what happened in Silver a couple of weeks back) and "NEVER GET CAUGHT ON THE WRONG SIDE OF A MONTHLY BREAKOUT FAILURE". This is precisely what the suckers are getting into, who are trying to play this breakout in SPX for long term investments. The public sentiment just baffles me. Here are folks who want to get long in their investment accounts whose horizon is at least a year or more. But they do not have the patience to wait for a month, for the monthly trend to give a all clear. 

 

It's not just the SPX. It's the same story playing out in most of the world markets too. After July, either this will be a uber bullish market for a year or two or a massive breakout failure on monthly charts. 

 

Patience !

Edited by NAV, 14 July 2016 - 01:01 AM.

[da_cheif]

being bullish in a bull market is called the recognition wave.......eventually everybody will be lusting after this market......and i mean everybody......first comes the eventual loss of fear of heights and noze bleeds.....what coming will make the 90s look like childs play     ....

[tsharp]

NAV,

 

To be fair, my call is a possible SPX 3600 by the end of 2018, and that call was made back in March, when I suggested P4 was complete... I just re-introduced the chart I prepared back then again once we closed at new ATHs... I made the same kind of projections here at TT back in 2004-5, and I know of at least one other technician who uses fractal theory who has had similar targets for as long, and Armstrong's system has had even higher potential targets on the Dow for even longer.

[SemiBizz]

Oh there are certain parties that always show up to crow at the high... here and elsewhere...

 

For example:

 

Cramer says buy chip stocks...

Edited by SemiBizz, 14 July 2016 - 07:17 AM.

[fib_1618]

Firstly we need a monthly close above SPX 2120 in July. Once that happens we would need a breakout above July high to signal a new leg of bull market.

Barring this, the bear will resume.

???

 

[NAV]

NAV,

 

To be fair, my call is a possible SPX 3600 by the end of 2018, and that call was made back in March, when I suggested P4 was complete... I just re-introduced the chart I prepared back then again once we closed at new ATHs... I made the same kind of projections here at TT back in 2004-5, and I know of at least one other technician who uses fractal theory who has had similar targets for as long, and Armstrong's system has had even higher potential targets on the Dow for even longer.

 

tsharp,

 

Sorry, i was not aware of your call. If you did call P4 complete in March, then more power to you. 

[SemiBizz]

 

 

 

Watch the GS chart... they will serve no WHINE until it's TIME...

 

Right now it's about as bullish as it gets off the last low at 138s... traded at 161 premarket

 

This chart Is very well behaved and tells no tales.

[dasein]

 

Firstly we need a monthly close above SPX 2120 in July. Once that happens we would need a breakout above July high to signal a new leg of bull market.

Barring this, the bear will resume.

???

 

 

yeah Fib - those questionmarks are for you...monthly close in June was < 2120????

[Iblayz]

IMO today sometime between midday and the close or at the close will be the first chance to sell it and hold it. If today's high is exceeded by a tick then we go up through next Wednesday at a minimum. Personally, I don't care if we go UP or if we go DOWN as long as I have a clue about the direction.

[leverage4]

All the gaps, especially the weekly gap, are a problem down the road, maybe sooner rather than later.

 

Lev