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The Long Term View


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#31 Rich C

Rich C

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Posted 19 September 2018 - 12:15 PM

Second quarter GDP came in at 4.2% on the second estimate in late Aug.  The Fed meets next week and is expected to raise the funds rate 1/4%, but the market is expecting it so I don't think there will be much reaction.  Market valuation climbed a bit in Sept., with the 12 month trailing GAAP S&P 500 P/E up to 23.7 because Q2 earnings have been set for a while and the market has rallied a little.  23.7 is moderately overvalued relative to my 30 year trimmed average of 19.  Earnings are expected to be up 20% YoY for Q3, with about half of that coming from the tax cut.  Geo-politically the major risk is the trade wars, particularly with China.  The tariffs are hurting some companies significantly, but apparently not the majority of US businesses.  Price action is flat for Sept, but remains solidly within the up channel it has been in for most of the last decade.

 

Conclusion: The long term bull market continues. 

 

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My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months and I focus on SPY.