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The Long Term View


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#51 K Wave

K Wave

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Posted 28 March 2020 - 02:52 PM

As long as SOX continues to hold up, I am not yet in LT Bear camp.

 

SOX led both the decline into 2003, and the decline into 2009.

 

Today, it is doing just the opposite by showing tremendous relative strength.

 

Until that changes, I am now leaning towards the "one and done" severe panic correction into March 18, with retest on the 23rd , followed by 90/10 breadth thrust on 24th.

 

We will see things thing play out over next few days, but am now thinking possibility for "Y" type bottom in March without full retest of the lows in April, as I had previously been thinking.

 

That said, if SOX were to get a weekly close under 1250, then things would look a lot more bearish on all fronts.



#52 Rich C

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Posted 30 March 2020 - 09:30 PM

As long as SOX continues to hold up, I am not yet in LT Bear camp.

 

SOX led both the decline into 2003, and the decline into 2009.

 

Today, it is doing just the opposite by showing tremendous relative strength.

 

Until that changes, I am now leaning towards the "one and done" severe panic correction into March 18, with retest on the 23rd , followed by 90/10 breadth thrust on 24th.

 

We will see things thing play out over next few days, but am now thinking possibility for "Y" type bottom in March without full retest of the lows in April, as I had previously been thinking.

 

That said, if SOX were to get a weekly close under 1250, then things would look a lot more bearish on all fronts.

Whether we are in a long term bear market, that really is the $64,000 question.  I think we are.  I think it is a different kind of bear market, as most are a result of the business cycle, and this one it not.  This bear market is a result of a biological event.  I suspect it will behave like most bear markets, but it could behave a bit differently since it has a different type of origin.  Everyone has to answer this question, is this a real long term bear market IMO.  If it is, investors need to behave differently than they do in bull markets.


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My swing trades typically last a couple of weeks to a couple of months and I focus on SPY.