5 replies to this topic

[andr99]

......especially the breadth-based ones ?  Where are they hiding themselves now ? A funny human category, so vocal to claim the market is set up to get to new all times highs when it's rising.....and astonishingly mute at the first 2% drop...or even less, many times. Well I would suggest to them to avoid to explain us why the market has surged after it has done because we're all able to see things.....after. We don' t need help on that. And we don' t need philosophycal speeches either, telling us nothing at all about market's behaviour. We would strongly need a clear forecast like the one I' m going to post here, now : in my opinion this spx drop looks like the one that happened on the 24th of June. I think the spx recently has been unable to break up the barrier at 2200 and it needs to recharge itself down to 2120-2130 before getting back to 2200 and break it up. My final spx target is 2250 and we will get it before the elections. Round and clear......even though it's not a suggestion to whoever is reading. 

Edited by andr99, 09 September 2016 - 02:44 PM.

[alexnewbee]

most probably you are right Andr. I think we have some more downside, but it is not worth chasing here.

I got my part of the move and covered 90% of my shorts here. Now just waiting.

Anyway it was nice shake out

[fib_1618]

A funny human category, so vocal to claim the market is set up to get to new all times highs when it's rising.....and astonishingly mute at the first 2% drop...or even less, many times. Well I would suggest to them to avoid to explain us why the market has surged after it has done because we're all able to see things.....after. We don' t need help on that. And we don' t need philosophycal speeches either, telling us nothing at all about market's behaviour. We would strongly need a clear forecast like the one I' m going to post here, now : in my opinion this spx drop looks like the one that happened on the 24th of June. I think the spx recently has been unable to break up the barrier at 2200 and it needs to recharge itself down to 2120-2130 before getting back to 2200 and break it up. My final spx target is 2250 and we will get it before the elections. Round and clear......even though it's not a suggestion to whoever is reading. 

 

It's also amusing how you mock things that you don't understand when things seemingly don't go the way of your (mis)understanding of a technical methodology.

 

That said, the market gave indications that something like this would happen as early as Tuesday...subscribers were prepared especially after Thursday's "failure to succeed".

 

2016-09-06 16:41:33 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO also continues to huff and puff its way toward the zero line
2016-09-06 16:41:45 fib1618: coming in today with a -10
2016-09-06 16:42:13 fib1618: and keeping the large caps on a tight bullish leash
2016-09-06 16:42:35 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO is now at the zero line
2016-09-06 16:42:55 fib1618: with a minimal crossover buy signal noted in the Dow breadth MCO components
2016-09-06 16:43:23 fib1618: with the broader market NYA leading though
2016-09-06 16:43:40 fib1618: one would think that the mega caps are going to get with the program here
2016-09-06 16:44:02 fib1618: which also means
2016-09-06 16:44:07 fib1618: if we fail to follow through
2016-09-06 16:44:18 fib1618: this might open a trap door of sorts

 

All in a day's work.

 

Fib

[andr99]

 

A funny human category, so vocal to claim the market is set up to get to new all times highs when it's rising.....and astonishingly mute at the first 2% drop...or even less, many times. Well I would suggest to them to avoid to explain us why the market has surged after it has done because we're all able to see things.....after. We don' t need help on that. And we don' t need philosophycal speeches either, telling us nothing at all about market's behaviour. We would strongly need a clear forecast like the one I' m going to post here, now : in my opinion this spx drop looks like the one that happened on the 24th of June. I think the spx recently has been unable to break up the barrier at 2200 and it needs to recharge itself down to 2120-2130 before getting back to 2200 and break it up. My final spx target is 2250 and we will get it before the elections. Round and clear......even though it's not a suggestion to whoever is reading. 

 

It's also amusing how you mock things that you don't understand when things seemingly don't go the way of your (mis)understanding of a technical methodology.

 

That said, the market gave indications that something like this would happen as early as Tuesday...subscribers were prepared especially after Thursday's "failure to succeed".

 

2016-09-06 16:41:33 fib1618: the OEX breadth MCO also continues to huff and puff its way toward the zero line
2016-09-06 16:41:45 fib1618: coming in today with a -10
2016-09-06 16:42:13 fib1618: and keeping the large caps on a tight bullish leash
2016-09-06 16:42:35 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO is now at the zero line
2016-09-06 16:42:55 fib1618: with a minimal crossover buy signal noted in the Dow breadth MCO components
2016-09-06 16:43:23 fib1618: with the broader market NYA leading though
2016-09-06 16:43:40 fib1618: one would think that the mega caps are going to get with the program here
2016-09-06 16:44:02 fib1618: which also means
2016-09-06 16:44:07 fib1618: if we fail to follow through
2016-09-06 16:44:18 fib1618: this might open a trap door of sorts

 

All in a day's work.

 

Fib

 

good....it might.....possibly......if.......even though......the technicians' tongue I guess. But that doesn' t really matter to me. The thing that really matters is.....why not posting these revealing claims here for a while in order to let me see how effective they are ? I see lots of bullish comments, not just from you....after a bullish run has started and I don' t remember a single post alerting of a decent correction coming. I....appreciate good claims...........on both sides though. Philosophycal speeches telling me that the market might go up, down or even sideways which is what most so called technicians have usually to offer, are not my favourite. That said I' m solidly in gain with my ST long position in Milan, Europe, and I wrote here that I was keeping it under strict control, because this market was and is dangerous. If you look at Milan it's still in an ST uptrend and possibly it will keep the uptrend alive if the American futures on Sunday night don' t signal a continuation of the spx drop. Otherwise I will close, I' m largely green. I will go on understanding nothing about markets and pocketing gains as I' m doing now. Without any breadth-based.....possibly......if......even though. Don' t get angry.....it's not just for you. it's for all those who are always afraid to share clear forecasts. Because sharing what one really thinks.....is the base of human progress.

 

For example, what is your analysis indicating to you now ? Is this a two days' correction as I wrote it is in my opinion or is it the start of something much bigger ? Round and clear answer please. Thanks.....because when i say it is a two days' correction I put the face here. I would like others do the same. EOM          

Edited by andr99, 09 September 2016 - 03:47 PM.

[pdx5]

Hooray Andr99.......for posting an actual FEARLESS FORECAST with time span included!.

The word Forecast is about FUTURE!!!!!

 

20-20 HINDSIGHT explanations and posts are as useless as a 5th wheel.

As are future forecasts without specifying time span and magnitude.

Edited by pdx5, 09 September 2016 - 04:46 PM.

[lawdog]

i'm still a bull.

 

terrible day for me, just like brexit day, (though i cheered the brexit vote more than i cried over what the vote cost me; nothing much to cheer about today). worked hard since february, after january draw-down, to get to a decent profit on the year and lost half of it in six hours. silver lining:Technical condition now similar to post brexit.

 

yellen won't raise rates as long as bho is in the wh. that was most certainly a condition of her elevation to the top fed post. if trump wins the wh, the stage is now set to raise rates, and the ensuing debacle, i.e. soaring debt due to payment of interest on $20 trillion, will be plausible and not reported, at least by the "main-stream media", as a partisan attempt to destroy trump's presidency. trump's first action on the afternoon of 1/17/17 is to fire yellen before she and her cronies can act. this act on trump's part to fire yellen  will be decried as the first proof that trump is unhinged. it will still be painful, but trump and his new fed chair might be able to manage a gradual rise in rates without causing a complete panic.

 

hrc wins and rates barely budge for 4 years. deficit grows to $30,000,000,000,000, going parabolic (could be about as bad with trump; difference will be in how it is spent.). question during her 4 years will then be "when does the world stop buying our (US) new debt?" eventually, who knows when, the world will demand a higher return, the fed will lose its control over rates, and the trillions in debt will be refinance at much higher rates. with so much short duration US paper out there, an inverted yield curve would be catastrophic.

 

"How did you go bankrupt?" Mike: "Slowly at first, then all of a sudden." Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises (forgot exact quote.) 

 

i will not risk overnight positions once we get within a week of the vote other than perhaps equal positions in puts and calls where an extreme move either way can net a profit. long vix calls might be the way to go, but perhaps this is too obvious.