Member
Posted 20 October 2016 - 12:35 PM
is a complete waste of time, until this market starts trending again. Most of the tactical moves are being done after-hours or in the pre-market. Those trading cash are not only missing those setups, but also can't have hard stops for protection from gaps. And adding insult to injury is no follow thru on any moves. This month has been pure garbage for those trading cash.
I am moving to ES.
Edited by NAV, 20 October 2016 - 12:36 PM.
Member
Posted 20 October 2016 - 12:52 PM
ES is pretty much the same except there are 5-minute scalps available. 
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
Member
Posted 20 October 2016 - 12:56 PM
True 100% - for the kind of moves ur trying to capture ...
I remember you used to post trades on ES, I was surprised you try to do this on cash...so much harder ( for stops in particular).
I only do cash but i'm day trading..big difference...for day trading, only going for smaller moves ..it has been OK
except the gap days tend to lead to compression ..and this week has been OPEX whipsaw nightmare as usual.
Oh and by Market Law as said - this now means trending move dead ahead. 
Edited by Entropy2.0, 20 October 2016 - 12:59 PM.
Volume Dynamics Specialist
Posted 20 October 2016 - 01:26 PM
I must admit our strategies are completely juxtaposed...
My deal is to sell resistance and buy support.
The trading range here is 2131-2146, defined by the last day of volume in the SPX...
Instead of buying a break out which is effectively your system entry...
I look to short resistance with very tight stops...
Minimize risk and maximize profits.
For a run back to support
It's a 15 point trading range, but if you get the moves right, there's plenty of points for a day trader to carve out...
Volume Dynamics Specialist
Posted 20 October 2016 - 01:47 PM
We can all agree this is an ugly market, just like the Clown Show going on in the news...
Member
Posted 20 October 2016 - 02:02 PM
I must admit our strategies are completely juxtaposed...
My deal is to sell resistance and buy support.
The trading range here is 2131-2146, defined by the last day of volume in the SPX...
Instead of buying a break out which is effectively your system entry...
I look to short resistance with very tight stops...
Minimize risk and maximize profits.
For a run back to support
It's a 15 point trading range, but if you get the moves right, there's plenty of points for a day trader to carve out...
Good to have a trading discussion here, mind if I give my 2cents, I spend WAY too much time over years examining and trying all trading approaches.
Yes, I agree somewhat, but this assumes you can predict 'its a range'.
He is using a pure price system, so there is no 'we are in a range' ...because all ranges end and then trend, his system is tuned to
take small losses in range, then large profit when trend comes. ..you can't snapshot it in the range and say its different approach, you
have to see it over longer period of both ranges + trend.
* the flipside in trading ranges, you miss the trend, as u assume resistance or support holds. Ok u now u have system to tell
u when range fails to trend .. then u have great system ..usually u just get it wrong and miss lots of range trades or trend trades.
I'm day trader, even for that with ranges its been tricky THIS week.
I've shown the challenge for day -trading in this chart:
Red arrows show SHORT trade setup at resistance 2146.
Note. As day-trade, must be closed end of day, and take after open.
* Now on ES ...not limited to cash day session, .I think it would have been ALOT easier ..as i said above.
http://screencast.com/t/uNMKCohpA97D
For example this week - monday droped to 2125....6 pt under ur support... would stop out a 5pt type stop.
then tue-today ... we've had drops off resistance 2146 area ( with 2-3pts ..with stop range) ...but never dropped to 2131, lowest is today 2134.
so now problem moves to 'where do I take a profit' a GOOD problem compared to losses I agree! but its been difficult because
-> if you short resistance..and hold until support to exit since Tue ... you got nothing! never hit support 2131.
OK - so u are experienced, and realize its a pesky scalper market - just take 5pts every time you get them ..... as I said, that's only
good trade this week on SPX cash we are discussing.
As always with TRADING versus setup - its all about where is entry, where is stop , where is exit ..you can call it right, and still get nada for ur troubles
except commission costs for many lame trades.
I certainly got no good setups this week - that is very rare ....except for OPEX when it occurs very often
Hence I am here chatting ..rather than trading. :-)
best,
Mark
Edited by Entropy2.0, 20 October 2016 - 02:10 PM.
Volume Dynamics Specialist
Posted 20 October 2016 - 02:09 PM
Volume frames resistance and support, it's not rocket science...
So anyway here's something to watch now... DB Long Term Upper Down Trend Line Touch today...
If they have a deal with the DOJ, we could see it blast over...
Member
Posted 20 October 2016 - 02:32 PM
Volume frames resistance and support, it's not rocket science...
Absolutely, determining support/resistance is easy - use volume, lines, whatever..there are many choices.
But TRADING is another matter, as I showed above the problem of using the support/resistance 2146-2131 this week on spx cash.
Trading is much harder because you have to manage risk, which means having a stop - for a range, is that 3, 5 -10pts? larger the stop, more the risk.
If you get a profit - where do you take it ? as I showed, often we don't reach support or resistance....
Trading is a two step skill
1. Setup - using support/resistance and optionally buy/sell signals or price trend following.
2. Execution - determine stops, and profit exit... and position sizing.
Step 2 is the hard part as everyone who has traded long enough knows, most of us have no problem with step 1.
Retail traders focus 90% on (1) and very little on (2)...when should be other way around.
Edited by Entropy2.0, 20 October 2016 - 02:38 PM.
Volume Dynamics Specialist
Posted 20 October 2016 - 02:38 PM
the hard part is called DISCIPLINE...
You just have to act.
If something gets very far over it's resistance or under the support, you need price protection.
Like a few minutes ago, if you were short the SOX, you needed price protection, they spiked it 6 points in like 2 min...
There was no time to discern if volume was driving it or not... spikes and gaps are going to happen, intraday spikes far less often than gaps, but you have to be prepared...
Member
Posted 20 October 2016 - 08:47 PM
ES is pretty much the same except there are 5-minute scalps available.
I have to disagree on many counts:
1) Many times, the trade setup comes around 4:30 - 6:30 AM PST. If i am trading cash, i cannot take that setup. Since i base my trade off the S&P cash charts, i don't see that setup on the cash charts. Yes, i could base my trade off the ES charts and trade the pre-market and after-hours on the ETFs. But again it has to be strictly in the pre and after -hours time window. With ES i can get in and out any time - 24 hours
Why does this matter ? It means everything given the small range we are trading in. By the time the setup comes in the cash market, it's already too late. I would have got the setup in the ES 5-6 points earlier. Before my minimum partial profit objective is reached, the market turns. Had i taken the setup in the ES, i would have at least fulfilled my partial profit objective (10-15 points on 50% of my position and ride the rest).
I am not saying trade the market 24 hours. But at least trading the 4:30 - 6:30 AM PST window gives a huge edge in terms of early entry.
Once i take partial profits of 10-15 points, then i can ride second half for big profits or even if it hits my STOP, overall trade would still be a winner.
2) If there is a big overnight move a.k.a traps, you are basically screwed if you are trading cash. I took a 16 point hit on one of my trades. With ES i could have placed a hard STOP at a strong pivot and gone to sleep. The overnight shenanigans cannot get me, if i am trading futures.
This month, there have been at least 4 instances, when market gapped big against both the 5-min and hourly trend. It's not unusual in a range market. But, you are trapped if you are trading the cash in these instances. With ES not only can you protect yourself with a hard STOP, but you can also reverse before the cash opens and turn a losing position in a profitable position.
There are many others, but they are system specific.
Edited by NAV, 20 October 2016 - 08:49 PM.
