Something I've noticed in the many years we've been running the polls is that this crew-- you guys+me -- are almost ALWAYS leaning heavily the right way at worthwhile turns. We are, as a community, REMARKABLY good top and bottom pickers.
I haven't run a study recently, but if memory serves, there is less than 1 in 10 likelihood of a top today based upon the Actual Position Poll. That doesn't mean that we can't top tomorrow, nor that we go much higher today. It's just that a big bet on the short-side is very unlikely to pay off enough to justify the risk.
Mark