10 replies to this topic

[OEXCHAOS]

Something I've noticed in the many years we've been running the polls is that this crew-- you guys+me -- are almost ALWAYS leaning heavily the right way at worthwhile turns. We are, as a community, REMARKABLY good top and bottom pickers.

 

I haven't run a study recently, but if memory serves, there is less than 1 in 10 likelihood of a top today based upon the Actual Position Poll. That doesn't mean that we can't top tomorrow, nor that we go much higher today. It's just that a big bet on the short-side is very unlikely to pay off enough to justify the risk.

 

Mark

[NAV]

SPX 2130 could  get tested today - best case scenario for shorts. But i am not playing it. I need better risk/reward.

Edited by NAV, 08 December 2016 - 10:38 AM.

[OEXCHAOS]

SPX 2130 could  get tested today - best case scenario for shorts. But i am not playing it. I need better risk/reward.

 

Exactly. I got really good at picking tops some time ago. Then I realized it still wasn't making me much money. It's not worth it, ESPECIALLY when you don't have your most reliable sentiment measures (at tops) at your back.

 

And, I'm only speaking about TODAY. Period. Things can change tomorrow.

 

Mark

[tommyt]

Whats crazy, is we had the blast off of the election, should have gotten more sideways consolidation after that, but have now melted up BEFORE the rate rise next week. I expected ST rates and the stock market to rally on their rate rise. Now, its completely up in the air. Blow offs normally carry a giant reversal bar at the high. A good strategy for day traders with these conditions is to buy all dips until you are wrong twice in a row, then re evaluate. Very difficult to pick a high in something vertical, its very tempting, but you learn after wise that there wasn't a good entry spot all along until it tops. I guess the DOW 20,000 hats are being talked about now. my .02

 

http://stockcharts.c...id=p48019965889

 

http://stockcharts.c...id=p01032145679

Edited by tommyt, 08 December 2016 - 11:07 AM.

[dasein]

nice - A good strategy for day traders with these conditions is to buy all dips until you are wrong twice in a row, then re evaluate.

 

thanks Mark and everyone...

[redfoliage2]

This is very close to a top, though it may not have to be today.

[OEXCHAOS]

This is very close to a top, though it may not have to be today.

 

I just feel like I don't have to be that smart. But, if you're looking for the top, watch for a bunch of Short Bears in the polls.

 

M

[redfoliage2]

 

This is very close to a top, though it may not have to be today.

 

I just feel like I don't have to be that smart. But, if you're looking for the top, watch for a bunch of Short Bears in the polls.

 

M

 

Now my FF is this is an ST top.  The story for the recent swing has run its course.

Edited by redfoliage2, 08 December 2016 - 03:49 PM.

[gm_general]

Interesting VIX action today BTW, quite a roller coaster.

[cycletimer]

Mark,
What about the 'ol, reliable TUMA indicator? Do you use it anymore?