20 replies to this topic

[kinga200]

I am still very short my trend model is still on a sell since last post.  My 15 Min at the close is showing a large gap down on Monday.

 

The market is not even worried to the risks of Trumps plan.  Not saying they are bad saying that they can be stopped or not go as expected.

[gameover]

gap down, not a snowballs chance.

 

b-berg telling me it's gap up and GO big time next week

 

20k going to look low before this year is over

[redfoliage2]

Before I noticed b-berg post I doubted if there will be a gap-down or not.  Now his post just confirmed it.

Edited by redfoliage2, 06 January 2017 - 04:39 PM.

[Len]

Before I noticed b-berg post I doubted if there will be a gap-down or not.  Now his post just confirmed it.

   

[da_cheif]

its not nice to fool with mother nature..........watch the sky........www may slow things down but the end result is higher prices are coming

[lawdog]

I am still very short my trend model is still on a sell since last post.  My 15 Min at the close is showing a large gap down on Monday.

 

The market is not even worried to the risks of Trumps plan.  Not saying they are bad saying that they can be stopped or not go as expected.

 

how can you make such a specific prediction? are you really that good? then what after the gap:hold for a trend day down or take your profits at the open? I just don't buy it that on a Friday close you can predict a Monday opening.  if anyone were that good they could own the world in six months. if you are "still short", why did your method apparently fail this week but is still prescient enough to call a market opening 60 hours away? not having the intelligence to call a Monday morning gap 60 hours in advance, the best I can hope to do is to respond rationally to whatever the market gives me at the next open. Maybe come Monday "they" sell because of fear of heights, or maybe "they" buy because resistance has been cleared and shorts capitulate en masse. I suggest the answer is unknowable even in most cases just 12 hours before the open, let alone 60 hours away.

[pedro]

I can see the case for a decline from here.

My daily cyclical oscillator has dropped to just 2 (+75 to -75 range) where falling to the zero line indicates high risk of selling.

My favored CCI is now over 100 (OB zone) albeit not yet declining.

We hit the daily upper bolly and yielded a bit off that.    Bounces off that wall (in this case down) are routine.

Not everything is lined up so its not a lock as far as Monday open (or even Monday close).  

But S/T upside potential is limited from here though.

 

Re IT and LT, the IT status has weakened notably ... from very strong post election to one quarter that strength now.  In range for a sell signal soon.

The LT status remains VERY strong (>2 on +3 to -3 scale) and suggests any IT decline will be bought.

 

"the best I can hope to do is to respond rationally to whatever the market gives me at the next open"

 

Reasonable approach, but it is possible to anticipate at better than 50/50 from time to time.   Those are gifts.

Prevailing market strength argues against taking such a gamble here imo.

Edited by pedro, 07 January 2017 - 10:53 AM.

[SemiBizz]

It's a cold winter for the bears...  Pretty soon, you'll be seeing red candles everywhere you look...  maybe soon, maybe later... inevitable..

 

[fib_1618]

It's a cold winter for the bears...  Pretty soon, you'll be seeing red candles everywhere you look...  maybe soon, maybe later... inevitable..

 

Isn't it always?

 

Fib

[SemiBizz]

 

It's a cold winter for the bears...  Pretty soon, you'll be seeing red candles everywhere you look...  maybe soon, maybe later... inevitable..

 

Isn't it always?

 

Fib

 

 

Yep, classic "climate-deniers"