23 replies to this topic

[CLK]

 

"This system under performed buy and hold by 62%."

 

How did it do relative to cash that you are in  for a very long time?

 

Reasonable expectations leads to reasonable results. If you are unwilling to take risk...you need to pay for protective maneuvering.

 

In responding to you original post,I was under the impression that you wanted something to make better than cash with minimum risk. I probably was wrong...actually big time wrong.

 

Please ignore what I suggested. You need a holly grail!

 

 

 

No, you said I could expect 80% of buy and hold, it just does not work out that way in real trading after you figure in the compounded losses. 

I have no gains except money market in my account, no losses either, but I think for a 6.7% paper gain left on the table I am better off timing 

short term turns.

I guess the only other way is to buy and hold and expect to wait out 25% corrections and look for signs of a big top 

like 2000 and 2007.

Edited by CLK, 15 January 2017 - 01:34 PM.

[fib_1618]

If you have a 401k, do you try to trade it with short term moves at all or try to time intermediate turns ?

 

As I've been trying to tell you for over 10 years now, just follow the McClellan Summation Index and you'll be ahead of most without the day to day emotional worry that cripples you. I would also suggest that you use ETF's instead of funds such as Vanguard where at all possible as in that way you can also capitalize when the MCSUM moves lower.

 

Fib

[MaryAM]

Gold is up 10.8% y to y and its pretty.   

[Douglas]

fib_1618, could you elaborate a bit more on the best way to use the McClellan Summation Index ($NYSI at Stockcharts.com)?  In my trading system I use a fast 3 day moving average cross-over of $NYSI to indicate a change in the short term trend.  A buy signal is generated if the $NYSI itself turns up below -500 or crosses 0 from below whichever comes first.  A sell signal is generated for a turn down above 1000 or crossing 0 from above, again whichever comes first. 

 

The method I note above is subject to whipsaw and misses a number of trades, so it's just one tool in the belt.   Is there another, better way of approaching $NYSI that I'm missing?  Thanks if you can share.

 

Regards,

Douglas

[fib_1618]

Is there another, better way, of approaching $NYSI that I'm missing?

 

I've made many posts on this subject over the years, but the following link to this thread is probably the best one to refer to:

 

http://www.traders-t...h-way/?p=487553

 

Please be sure you go beyond the primer for other insights of which I'm sure will enrich your knowledge. I also highly suggest bringing up a chart of the McClellan's and price charts from the October 2009 period so you can follow along. Also know that that what you read is only skimming the surface on this analytical tool which affords the trader tremendous market insight not found in anywhere else in the technical world. To wit...it can be used as a stand alone from where you can pretty much have a double digit return on your capital year in and year out with little or no effort on your part if used properly.

 

Follow up questions are always encouraged.

 

Fib

[CLK]

All of these corrections had divergences building ahead of time, so you could have avoided them, but if you didn't feel like watching for them on a regular basis this system has worked keeping you on the right side long term.

 

Internals are weakening some, so I think we give back 3-5% soon.

 

 

Edited by CLK, 15 January 2017 - 07:00 PM.

[CLK]

[Chilidawgz]

I use this methodology to manage my 401k accounts which are restrictive to frequent switching. It's a similar method that Meb Faber uses, with my tweaks added.

 

Google Talk .

 

 

I am a bit of a position/swing trader using weekly charts, which, I have not posted here. Most here are day traders. What I post is a method for infrequent switching. You catch most of the move without big draw downs. It is not meant to beat the market but to avoid huge hits to your net worth. It can be applied to any ETF. ( I added the summation that FIB mentioned as a tool  I look at.) The primary charts are the moving averages and the Advance decline.

 

[AChartist]

i generally will keep some stocks I dont have that much generally good ones that live in the top

 

of the heatmaps, the power should be in gold,

 

401k is now 25% gold, and one trading account with other stocks is about that. 401k is 5% short fund

 

and that needs increased for about 30 weeks.

 

 

I do have stocks prone to a crash, or decline for 30 weeks. Just because cycles are bad may

 

not be a crash but stocks should not make any progress.

 

The first low is 3rd week of Feb.

Gold is the place for 40 weeks, 3 strong days up, then 10 days high. Some drop can happen from

2-4 weeks buy maybe not much or just a consolidation time,

then the meat of the rise from 5 to 40 weeks when all cycles are aligned historically

epic.

So I basically take the pain in stocks, with some short position to hedge it in 401k

and count on the gold stocks to do the work.

 

I think it is also essential to have 5 to 10 bitcoins and hold that for about 20 years.

So if stocks are going down next the bonds should be up, interest rates down. In

30 weeks may be last time to take a mortgage or car before interest rates lose control.

The other generational trade I am looking for is to short the bonds (long interest rates)

generationally

in the next stock decline that can be 30 weeks. Its early to say until this is developing

but that is the idea to start with. First step is see if stocks are low in 3rd week of Feb.

 

The last gold rise with stock decline I calculated it only took 5% gold to hedge the 401k stock funds.

So If I'm starting here with 25% gold can be almost all gold in 40 weeks.

[NAV]

All of these corrections had divergences building ahead of time, so you could have avoided them, but if you didn't feel like watching for them on a regular basis this system has worked keeping you on the right side long term.

 

Internals are weakening some, so I think we give back 3-5% soon.

 

 

 

 

There you go. You have answered your own question. That chart is all you need. In your chart, buy above the first white candle following the red candle and hold it until you get the red candle and sell below the red candle. That's all you need !. No Gurus, no fancy TA is required. I bet you even the most complicated, sophisticated methods out there won't beat your method. Great chart ! 

 

But  the question is "Have you followed the method", "Are you following the method", "Will you be able to follow the method" ? Have you got the discipline ?

Edited by NAV, 15 January 2017 - 10:12 PM.