The VIX can do alot of wandering up and down on the daily chart......but UVXY remains the best indicator when something more significant may be in the works for the bears. A good threshold for UVXY is the 15 min 200 simple moving average. A sustained move that stays above that level and it's time to start watching to see what develops (or SVXY below its 15 min 200 MA). And a declining slope on the 15 min 200 will not be too friendly for UVXY.
UVXY goes back to Sept 2012, and everybody has seen what the market has done in the 4+ years since then. It just hardly ever matters what the advance decline line is doing or any other indicator for that matter, as long as UVXY is hibernating below the threshold. Trading ranges, profit taking and even big price moves up and down.....its all about normal as long as UVXY remains in the box. We're already 3 full weeks into 2017 and it's still in the box.....quite a comparison to last year around this time. With UVXY in the box, this market grinding higher is 100% right 100% of the time......there is simply no path for any kind of short term top to be forming yet. That could change.....but it's not there yet.
