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My trading plan right now


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#1 lawdog

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Posted 27 April 2017 - 10:38 PM

i'm not certain of the implications, but I am concerned at how quickly vix and vixn have declined. a week ago there was a post suggesting a vix spike, but i noted the sentiment was leaning heavily in favor of a spike, so i wrote that i did not think the spike would occur, but if it did, in response to the French election, that it would be a great opportunity to take the other side. so we ended up with vix tanking, and i am inclined to feel that is not a good indication for the current rally.

 

with that said, most indicators have room to run until becoming overbought, so i continue with my 55% long position. wish i had more of the qld, 2x naz100, but the huge earnings beats from, i believe amz and goog, suggest a 1% gap opening in the naz100. i would like to get all i can out of this, but this might be the blowoff top that could put a cap on the mkt, at least for a while.

 

on the spx, it has consolidated for 2 days and should be ready to move on friday and the first few days of May. naz money could rotate into the lagging spx. the spx failure to take out 2400 real soon, probably by monday,  may cause me to reduce my spx positions. if we are not putting in a double top in spx, there should be enough gas in the tank to approach spx 2450, but this must happen sooner rather than later. breaking and holding spx 2400 could bring in some dumb money and spell the end of this rally that on april 17.



#2 Charvo

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Posted 28 April 2017 - 03:40 AM

I agree.  The momentum of the US markets has to be respected, and I think it has more room to run.  However, I am focusing on FXI as a short candidate.  China stocks may have hit the wall with the inflation numbers being on the high side especially with respect to housing prices.  I think liquidity is being pulled from the market because of that.  I think the Fed is going to raise rates in June.  However, they will be hawkish in their statements next week.


Edited by Charvo, 28 April 2017 - 03:47 AM.


#3 lawdog

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Posted 28 April 2017 - 06:03 AM

i think traders have a tendency to contrarian investing. i know i have. but much of the time a market is going up or down, it pays to run with the herd. so today, just because the naz is gapping higher does not necessarily mean the run is over. there may be a few days of consolidation, but a continuation of the naz rally is very possible. as a rothschild is believed to have said, "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." When you find yourself questioning the market's rationality, you are heading in a direction that generally leads to losses. I believe i have no way of knowing what rational is. Is a PE of 10 rational, or 20? 30? this is unknowable. PE's expand and contract, often for no apparent reason. Sure, low interest rates support higher PE's, but how high, and how will interest rate fluctuations affect this?



#4 pisces

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Posted 28 April 2017 - 07:52 AM

Nobody ever said this would be easy ! sweatingbullets.gif



#5 CLK

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Posted 28 April 2017 - 08:08 AM

Nobody ever said this would be easy ! sweatingbullets.gif

 

 

It's not easy trying to trade every day, I think that's where the problem is. There are really only 2-4 decent setups per month

on a daily chart. There are opportunities on the lower timeframes, but they can turn on you quick, usually soon after you become profitable.



#6 SemiBizz

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Posted 28 April 2017 - 08:43 AM

Not that hard... 2nd Fib target of 6073 was hit this morning....

 

Tagged and bagged, rejected.

 

It was posted for you on the old thread.


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#7 SemiBizz

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Posted 28 April 2017 - 09:34 AM

2385.....


Price and Volume Forensics Specialist

Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

http://twitter.com/tradingcoach1

#8 lawdog

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Posted 28 April 2017 - 09:37 AM

i suspect the dow and spx are being held back by acrophobia, just like in January. Naz seems to have no trouble with round numbers, closing above 6k this week and not looking back.

 

Took 3 weeks after crossing 20k on the Dow to finally close above it on Jan 25. Should not take that long to close above 21k.

 

but i am not yet ready to increase my positions above my current 55%.



#9 lawdog

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Posted 28 April 2017 - 09:51 AM

ok, now i'm ready; up to 65% at spx 2386



#10 alexnewbee

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Posted 28 April 2017 - 09:53 AM

Not that hard... 2nd Fib target of 6073 was hit this morning....

 

Tagged and bagged, rejected.

 

It was posted for you on the old thread.

In fact I see 2 Fibs - one from 27 March 2017, another one from 11 Feb 2016. So today's level could be of some importance. 


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