i'm not certain of the implications, but I am concerned at how quickly vix and vixn have declined. a week ago there was a post suggesting a vix spike, but i noted the sentiment was leaning heavily in favor of a spike, so i wrote that i did not think the spike would occur, but if it did, in response to the French election, that it would be a great opportunity to take the other side. so we ended up with vix tanking, and i am inclined to feel that is not a good indication for the current rally.
with that said, most indicators have room to run until becoming overbought, so i continue with my 55% long position. wish i had more of the qld, 2x naz100, but the huge earnings beats from, i believe amz and goog, suggest a 1% gap opening in the naz100. i would like to get all i can out of this, but this might be the blowoff top that could put a cap on the mkt, at least for a while.
on the spx, it has consolidated for 2 days and should be ready to move on friday and the first few days of May. naz money could rotate into the lagging spx. the spx failure to take out 2400 real soon, probably by monday, may cause me to reduce my spx positions. if we are not putting in a double top in spx, there should be enough gas in the tank to approach spx 2450, but this must happen sooner rather than later. breaking and holding spx 2400 could bring in some dumb money and spell the end of this rally that on april 17.