Member
Posted 10 May 2017 - 08:01 AM
Neely is looking for a stock market crash within 1-2 months. He thinks the situation is similar to 1987, 2000 and 2008. Some music for bears' ears.
In the meantime, i will continue to play the uptrend, until it turns.
Edited by NAV, 10 May 2017 - 08:05 AM.
Member
Posted 10 May 2017 - 08:54 AM
SOX still strong so I will stay long... Junk is still up so should make a buck...
Edited by MDurkin, 10 May 2017 - 09:01 AM.
Member
Posted 10 May 2017 - 09:23 AM
At some point, liquidity will have to be taken out. The Fed sold assets from its balance sheet in 87 and 2000 and 2010. There was a stoppage of QE in mid 2006 before the 2008 crash.
Member
Posted 10 May 2017 - 09:38 AM
Neely is looking for a stock market crash within 1-2 months. He thinks the situation is similar to 1987, 2000 and 2008. Some music for bears' ears.
Not with implied volatility at all time lows.
Does anyone really follow Neely anymore?
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
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Member
Posted 10 May 2017 - 09:46 AM
Neely is looking for a stock market crash within 1-2 months. He thinks the situation is similar to 1987, 2000 and 2008. Some music for bears' ears.
Not with implied volatility at all time lows.
Does anyone really follow Neely anymore?
Fib
I don't follow anybody. I run as fast as i can from those who make market predictions.
Only thing i follow is price.
Edited by NAV, 10 May 2017 - 09:51 AM.
Member
Posted 10 May 2017 - 10:15 AM
Not with implied volatility at all time lows.
VIX testing lows of 2006-7. All time low in VIX recorded in Dec 2006. Market did not reach a peak until Oct 2007, 10 months later.
Edited by kssmibotm, 10 May 2017 - 10:20 AM.
Member
Posted 10 May 2017 - 10:26 AM
VXO is the old VIX. When the market started to fall in 2006, the government lowered maintenance margin requirements to 25 or 15 percent. This was around the time of the last Fed rate hike and the sole BOJ rate hike to 0.25%. I recall Treas. Sec. Paulson went on "guarantee" that volatility would stay low.
Member
Posted 10 May 2017 - 12:22 PM
SOX is saying breakout soon.
Member
Posted 10 May 2017 - 06:16 PM
I have been a subscriber since 2007/2008.
If you ignore the “crash call” he is in fact looking for a decline that is greater than 13% that occurs in the space of less than 5 weeks. He feels that this will kick off in the next 1-3 months, but likely after a blow off move first.
I think his short-term count is wrong (that is, I think after a meaningful pullback there will be another higher high) but nonetheless I do feel that the above statement will prevail because I think we are seeing a repeat of 1998; that is, the deflationary pressures are building and that it will be September/October when these come into firm focus for investors. Just my two cents.
Taz
Member
Posted 10 May 2017 - 06:20 PM
To add a little further clarity, a decline meeting those parameters will be the commencement of an eventual decline of circa 50%.
Taz
