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COT Update and Seasonal Support


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#1 Rogerdodger

Rogerdodger

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Posted 13 August 2017 - 10:39 AM

FWIW:

From Early July posts:

Will Gold find some support near 1200?

I find little predictive value in the COT, other than some extremes. They seem to follow price.

However Large Specs and others are at a level which has often seen reversals in price.

 

The Golden Age Has Just Begun - Dimitri Speck

Gold begins to rise in early July

The seasonally strong period is highlighted in dark blue on the chart. It begins on July 6 and ends on February 24 of the following year.

The average gain of the gold price in the seasonally positive time period amounted to 8.62 percent, or 13.90 percent annualized.

Gold_2017_Seasonal_20_yrs.jpg

 

But as we know seasonals are just one ingredient. The past 2 years were contrary to those patterns.

However it seems like the Early lows in the COT report were a good indication of the coming rally.

But what's next? I'm holding a small bit, anticipating a possible wedgie break out.

COT_August_2017.jpg