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COT Update and Seasonal Support


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#1 Rogerdodger

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Posted 13 August 2017 - 10:39 AM

FWIW:

From Early July posts:

Will Gold find some support near 1200?

I find little predictive value in the COT, other than some extremes. They seem to follow price.

However Large Specs and others are at a level which has often seen reversals in price.

 

The Golden Age Has Just Begun - Dimitri Speck

Gold begins to rise in early July

The seasonally strong period is highlighted in dark blue on the chart. It begins on July 6 and ends on February 24 of the following year.

The average gain of the gold price in the seasonally positive time period amounted to 8.62 percent, or 13.90 percent annualized.

Gold_2017_Seasonal_20_yrs.jpg

 

But as we know seasonals are just one ingredient. The past 2 years were contrary to those patterns.

However it seems like the Early lows in the COT report were a good indication of the coming rally.

But what's next? I'm holding a small bit, anticipating a possible wedgie break out.

COT_August_2017.jpg



#2 Rogerdodger

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Posted 19 August 2017 - 11:37 AM

Gold bullishness is high here at 78% Wall Street and 65% Main Street.

But my observation is that they are more likely to follow a trend than forecast what's ahead.

http://www.kitco.com...On-Shining.html

 

This was the 3rd instance of a down week after making a new high near 1300.

The seasonal chart (above) makes me wonder if we will see some consolidation right here before a post Labor day advance.

Coincidentally, the seasonal chart (above) shows mid August retreating from previous resistance before taking off in September...and then re-testing that same area again in September. Of course, it's never exactly the same.

2017.08.18.jpg


Edited by Rogerdodger, 19 August 2017 - 11:55 AM.


#3 K Wave

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Posted 22 August 2017 - 12:16 PM

Yep, we are getting close.

 

As I said over a year ago, Gold was most likely dead money for the next year or so with 1300-1310 as the key pivot zone....

 

We have 3 ramps up there now over the last few months.

If/when that triple top gets taken out, the longer term tide may begin to turn.....

 

I think Silver may outperform %wise when it comes. Weekly chart on SLV looks quite similar to Dow about 1934 right now. A close over 17 would start to put longer term time frames back in full bull mode....

 

Once the turn comes, the 3X ETFs may start to outperform as well, due to the gearing effect.

Take a look at TQQQ over the last few years for example. Since breakout at the beginning of 2012, QQQ up 2.4X, but TQQQ up 11X, much more than 3X.

 

Of course, futures will give a lot more bang for the buck if you are looking for leverage.


Edited by K Wave, 22 August 2017 - 12:17 PM.


#4 dougie

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Posted 23 August 2017 - 11:34 AM

Good call Kw

#5 risk_management

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Posted 23 August 2017 - 11:54 AM

Interesting. Didn't know about tqqq move. Wow. Will this gearing effect be present in nugt or some other gold/miner index? What about direxion vs proshares? I guess it's time to do some prospectus readings. Ugh. Not looking forward to it but I guess it's a must. Ty kw.