634 replies to this topic

[senorBS]

 

 

3 possible bear counts, C up from last Dec low ended with a slight failure at 25.58, or 25.58 was C of a large bearish developing contracting tri, and another count that 25.58 was "b" and we now need to decline below 20.89 in "c". As I stated earlier bull markets often start "ugly" and if bullish that really has to be the case here as the recent rally phase shows nothing clearly bullish IMO. Bottom line a friggin mess and I am not willing at this time to wager much at all either way.

 

Senor

 

thanks. those are my counts too. fail here and we might tumble a ways. Maybe a long ways. 

 

no problemo, and frankly given the extent of this pullback (especially in miners) it's really hard to see any bullish count that gives me any confidence. So far today I see a corrective looking upward bounce and gold only a few dollars off decline low. I am 100% cash in all accts and happy to be there, IMO there is significant downside risk, it may no play out that way but today's action IMO offers nothing bullish. Rather not try to pick a low here, rather let the market turn higher (if it does) and "prove" itself to me. 

Edited by senorBS, 21 September 2017 - 01:43 PM.

[dharma]

after 150 rally in gold in 2 months, to me this seems like an ordinary correction.  jabat the month isnt over yet

this is what makes a market, gold -10   my account up on the day . this is encouraging action to me 

dharma

[dougie]

 

 

 

3 possible bear counts, C up from last Dec low ended with a slight failure at 25.58, or 25.58 was C of a large bearish developing contracting tri, and another count that 25.58 was "b" and we now need to decline below 20.89 in "c". As I stated earlier bull markets often start "ugly" and if bullish that really has to be the case here as the recent rally phase shows nothing clearly bullish IMO. Bottom line a friggin mess and I am not willing at this time to wager much at all either way.

 

Senor

 

thanks. those are my counts too. fail here and we might tumble a ways. Maybe a long ways. 

 

no problemo, and frankly given the extent of this pullback (especially in miners) it's really hard to see any bullish count that gives me any confidence. So far today I see a corrective looking upward bounce and gold only a few dollars off decline low. I am 100% cash in all accts and happy to be there, IMO there is significant downside risk, it may no play out that way but today's action IMO offers nothing bullish. Rather not try to pick a low here, rather let the market turn higher (if it does) and "prove" itself to me. 

 

 

Yep, you seem to be on the right side of this trade

[senorBS]

bot a 20% long "TRADING" position this morning, will use a fairly tight stop. We are oversold and did have some significant near term divergences into recent lows, a close above 1300 gold would be a positive, we see

 

Senor

[senorBS]

bot a 20% long "TRADING" position this morning, will use a fairly tight stop. We are oversold and did have some significant near term divergences into recent lows, a close above 1300 gold would be a positive, we see

 

Senor

note that I still see the downside risk but there is "enough" near term for me to give it a shot and "so far" most declines from recent highs do look corrective to "this point". So we have nothing clear to the upside nor downside intermediate term IMO. Also majority of indices/ETFs/stocks have declined back to the area of their 50 or 200-day MA's and let's remember that in the vast majority of cases the 50-day MA's are above their 200-day MA's so that is a potential positive set up as well. 

 

BSing away

 

Senor

[dharma]

today is the equin

ox this was significant for gann , time for a change in trend

chinas offering of a gold backed yuan for oil is interesting for the sector. china imports about 8million barrels of oil a day. that would put alot of gold in play every day. take huge quantities off the market. the price of gold would rise

i dont know what the catalyst will be , but there are many. fortunately , there are many factors at play w/n/korea  i doubt trump will just go in there w/bombs blazing, n/korea has the 4th largest standing army in the world . it would take some time to gear up for a war w/them. and then there is the political side w/russia and china sharing a border w/n/korea

janets program of reducing the feds balance sheet by 50billion a month is significant , but that doesnt start for a while

the dollar has hit the skids since the election of trump.  at some point there could be a run. 

lots of spinning plates. 

then i am hearing rumors that modi  , who has been a big disappointment might ban gold importation to india, it has happened before.  that would be a big blow to the market. its just rumors, but where there is smoke there is fire

i am very long now. and waiting

1st step is the psychological barrier at 1300

dharma

[dougie]

This corrective a wave 4 now entering 5 up? Some overlap with 1 but that rule seems to fail occasionally

[dougie]

Modi would suffer at the polls with this imo

today is the equin
ox this was significant for gann , time for a change in trend
chinas offering of a gold backed yuan for oil is interesting for the sector. china imports about 8million barrels of oil a day. that would put alot of gold in play every day. take huge quantities off the market. the price of gold would rise
i dont know what the catalyst will be , but there are many. fortunately , there are many factors at play w/n/korea  i doubt trump will just go in there w/bombs blazing, n/korea has the 4th largest standing army in the world . it would take some time to gear up for a war w/them. and then there is the political side w/russia and china sharing a border w/n/korea
janets program of reducing the feds balance sheet by 50billion a month is significant , but that doesnt start for a while
the dollar has hit the skids since the election of trump.  at some point there could be a run. 
lots of spinning plates. 
then i am hearing rumors that modi  , who has been a big disappointment might ban gold importation to india, it has happened before.  that would be a big blow to the market. its just rumors, but where there is smoke there is fire
i am very long now. and waiting
1st step is the psychological barrier at 1300
dharma

[dougie]

Why the whacking in CKG

[Smithy]

Twiggy:  Spot Gold found short-term support at $1290/ounce, overshooting the $1300 target. Political tensions are high and a weaker Dollar would drive another gold advance. Recovery of gold above its descending trendline would strengthen the signal. But breach of $1290 is as likely and would warn of a test of $1250.