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[Douglas]

By my crude count this coming week contains more than 16 risk cycle turns. The two days with the most appear to be Monday the 2nd and Friday the 6th, so they are the best guess for the dates for a turn or acceleration of the current trend.  Given turns are about three times more likely on these days than acceleration of the trend events, that should normally spell lower index prices by end of day Tuesday the 3rd, but these are anything but normal times. 

 

This past week, the Monday 25th risk window tagged a low, but the Thursday 28th date was a dud.  I did note both had a relatively low number of risk cycle turns.  This coming week, Monday's risk window has the highest number of risk cycle turns since the 7th of August turn date, so it will be very telling if Tuesday closes higher. 

 

The system remains long RYDHX, but the closest stop lies just under the belly of the current price bulge, so any serious selling will stop it out. 

 

Regards,

Douglas

 

[Douglas]

Mea culpa.  Monday turned out to be a low probability trend acceleration day instead of the turn day which I expected.  The number of risk cycle turns Monday was impressive, so the lack of a turn is puzzling. 

 

As I noted on another thread www.wolftrader.net Shane Smoleny who follows the FED like a hawk says they have been buying debt recently with both fists despite talking about tightening.  Maybe all the money sloshing around from this last minute buying spree before they give up QE is to blame for the bubble overwhelming the risk cycle turns.  All the happy talk about tax cuts for the upper caste is probably also contributing to the unexpected euphoria.   Another possible explanation I suppose is the shear number of risk cycle turns this week is so great that the turn has shifted away from the peak day to later in the week.  Regardless something bubbliciously strange is going on.

 

Regards,

Douglas