Member
Posted 10 October 2017 - 04:43 PM
From the link:
So what now? If I may quote Trade Vic Sperandeo: If the market doesn’t do what it “should” do, it is likely to do the opposite twice as much.
Twice as much…Hmm… I guess that is what is in store for tomorrow (and, maybe, up some more for the rest of the week).
For more discussion and a chart:
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
Member
Posted 10 October 2017 - 07:50 PM
From the link:
So what now? If I may quote Trade Vic Sperandeo: If the market doesn’t do what it “should” do, it is likely to do the opposite twice as much.
Twice as much…Hmm… I guess that is what is in store for tomorrow (and, maybe, up some more for the rest of the week).
For more discussion and a chart:
what you really meant to say.....was.......cmon think.....".what the market doesnt do what I THINK it should do" eh.........the market is doing what I think it should do.....watch the sky
Volume Dynamics Specialist
Posted 10 October 2017 - 09:35 PM
Well, to me it did everything I expected today...
From Tuesday's SPX Forecast:
SPX - GAP UP ON LIGHTER VOLUME AND BEARISH OUTSIDE REVERSAL - OK so not as bearish as it could have been because it still closed INSIDE FRIDAY'S RANGE... and that's a CONSOLIDATION... There were some frantic worries about GE today, DOWN ON MONSTER VOLUME TO NEW LOWS. We'll see if that still translates into weakness tomorrow and as well there were some worries about DB today, I would consider it minor... in any case, with this light volume pulling the market down, I have to be on alert for a WHIPSAW going into Tuesday... So unless there's something earth shattering going on here with one of these giants, then I would expect this market to possibly just "shrug off" today's weakness, and open higher. We shall see, there was nothing particularly bullish here today, except for the fact that we're still in shooting distance of NEW ALL TIME HIGHS... so you see in a way that's likely eh?
Member
Posted 10 October 2017 - 10:54 PM
How do you use these signals ? Do you act on them at the end of the day or the open next day ? In other words did you cover your shorts and go long already or waiting for tomorrows open ?
Member
Posted 11 October 2017 - 12:23 PM
How do you use these signals ? Do you act on them at the end of the day or the open next day ? In other words did you cover your shorts and go long already or waiting for tomorrows open ?
They are for the open of the next day. This is a market-timing system I developed to have its signal after the close so one only has look at it once a day, and put in the order for the open the night before. It is geared to both longs and shorts but as it turned out longs are more important over the long haul and the next day's open is better than the previous day's close probably in both cases because of the market's long-term bullish bias.
This week has been a pretty good example of the open versus the close. I had a sell signal on Monday's close and sold into that gap up Tuesday. Gaps go both ways but more often than not it goes like that.
The short signals were profitable in 2008 and 2011 (of course) but not much at any other time. In other words, being in a bull or bear market matters.
These days, I don't do much shorting and if I do it's usually no more than a day trade. When the market signals are short, some stocks are worth an over-night risk (for example, coal stocks), and some limited bearish option strategies, but I think being short in a bull market is dangerous all the time. I like to talk about it, but generally speaking I'm either long or in cash, personally choosing safe over short.
Good luck and good trading.
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
Member
Posted 11 October 2017 - 12:35 PM
From the link:
So what now? If I may quote Trade Vic Sperandeo: If the market doesn’t do what it “should” do, it is likely to do the opposite twice as much.
Twice as much…Hmm… I guess that is what is in store for tomorrow (and, maybe, up some more for the rest of the week).
For more discussion and a chart:
what you really meant to say.....was.......cmon think.....".what the market doesnt do what I THINK it should do" eh.........the market is doing what I think it should do.....watch the sky
That's right. 
And that's why I put the quote marks around "should".
Pretty irritating the market hasn't done the "twice as much' yet today.
"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).
“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”
"The god of trading rewards persistence, experience and discipline, and absolutely nothing else."
Member
Posted 11 October 2017 - 02:03 PM
If the market doesn't behave as it "should" per your model or system, then your model or system is wrong.
Sometimes it takes a devilish path, but I find that the market usually "behaves" according to rules pretty well, although turning points can be chaotic.
