7 replies to this topic

[NAV]

As of today, we have a breakout on the MACD. But since this is a monthly chart, we need to wait until the monthly close. Unless we get a quick correction (50+ points) over the next few days on the SPX, odds are the breakout will hold. If that happens then forget about a major correction for the next 4-6 months. By major correction, i mean 10%+ correction. We should know by Nov 1. 

 

If we do not breakout and the MACD crosses down, then we may finally get the big correction that the bears have been looking for. 

 

 

[salam]

thanks for sharing Nav

[salam]

Doji pause today; New trading range for SPX 2560-2610/20

 

I am scalping long till month end. We are in a seasonally bullish period Nov-December, so any meaningful pullback may not transpire till the new year.

 

Any Gann Devotees projections? Is this is the second/third longest Bull market since the 666 low???

[Geomean]

NAV, this technical point may be significant. There is a material difference between the Monthly 5/34 exponential MACD in the posted chart and the Williams monthly 5/34 Simple MACD.

The Williams 5/34/5 SMACD (which is a slight modification the 5/35 simple MACD generated by Tom Joseph's research) in the SPX had a high of 347 in 2014. It hasn't gotten above 306 in this wave up from Jan 2016, which per Williams research signals that primary wave ((3))topped in 2014 and that when a top prints here that it will be the end of primary wave ((5)) (and some higher degree 5's in the opinion of some but I don't have the data sets arranged to check). The counts up from Jan 2016 suggest that top in the SPX may have occurred yesterday. The current retracement is critical in determining whether minute wave v will extend.

Hard to have a lot of conviction as it's always easy to find an end at fib extensions, so I'm using buy and sell stops with reverses to go in either direction at the risk of getting chopped up and am long volatility. So far the 60 minute SPX chart looks much like the tops of 1962, 1966, 1987, 2000, and 2007. We'll see.

[dowdeva]

http://www.tradingfi..._oscillator.htm

 

For the uninformed such as myself...

[NAV]

NAV, this technical point may be significant. There is a material difference between the Monthly 5/34 exponential MACD in the posted chart and the Williams monthly 5/34 Simple MACD.

The Williams 5/34/5 SMACD (which is a slight modification the 5/35 simple MACD generated by Tom Joseph's research) in the SPX had a high of 347 in 2014. It hasn't gotten above 306 in this wave up from Jan 2016, which per Williams research signals that primary wave ((3))topped in 2014 and that when a top prints here that it will be the end of primary wave ((5)) (and some higher degree 5's in the opinion of some but I don't have the data sets arranged to check). The counts up from Jan 2016 suggest that top in the SPX may have occurred yesterday. The current retracement is critical in determining whether minute wave v will extend.

Hard to have a lot of conviction as it's always easy to find an end at fib extensions, so I'm using buy and sell stops with reverses to go in either direction at the risk of getting chopped up and am long volatility. So far the 60 minute SPX chart looks much like the tops of 1962, 1966, 1987, 2000, and 2007. We'll see.

 

On the DOW, even the simple MA based MACD has taken out the highs, which means the S&P will follow suit. Hard to imagine S&P topping in a primary 5 while DOW continues in 3.

[Geomean]

"On the DOW, even the simple MA based MACD has taken out the highs, which means the S&P will follow suit. Hard to imagine S&P topping in a primary 5 while DOW continues in 3."/er
Very pertinent and accurate observation on the Dow monthly. I noticed on the Dow that that has been the case, with the 5 /34 SMAC reaching it's highest in 5 at tops going back to 1987. So perhaps that consistent exception is suggestive. Wonder whether that may have something to do with the Dow being a price weighted index.

The weekly high so far was in March, but its getting closer to exceeding it with this thrust. One of several reasons that there is not a lot of conviction either way.

Edited by Geomean, 25 October 2017 - 08:39 AM.

[NAV]

FWIW, I don't trust DOW or Nasdaq or any other sectoral indices for longer term analysis. I would either use SPX or NYA.