At this juncture anything can happen. If the senate fails to pass the tax bill, Id look for a 5% pull back
Yup, anything can happen. If the Senate passes the tax bill, I'd look for a 50% pull back.
I see your 50% and raise you to 75%!
This whole notion that the market is somehow tied to what they do in Washington at a moments notice won't make you any money...only knowing the technical condition will.
Really? I was being half facetious when I pegged 50% for the pullback on the tax cut, although when NYSE margin debt begins to unravel and given that the tax cut is the last of the QEs (so to speak), that looks like a reasonable historical target. Who knows? A lot of time is going to have to pass before that is even possible..
But are you being facetious too or serious? Do you actually think this market is vulnerable to a 75% pull back whenever the bubble pops?
From what I've read on this board time and time again, anything is possible.
After all, the NASDAQ was down some 79% and the NDX was down 84% from their 2000 highs to their 2002 lows so there's precedence there.
But is it possible or even probable? Now? Today?
P.S....and, yes, I know you were being facetious...you know better than most. For many, however, they allow their politics get in the way of what's reasonable.