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#1 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 30 November 2017 - 09:50 AM

From this morning's letter:

 

"Conclusion
Last time, I said that we had e a 2X Sell and that normally, a 2X Sell and an Options Oscillator Sell on the same day would be likely to get right immediately but now, I thought and think that with the obviousness of the break higher, as well as the breadth confirmation, these sentiment readings are as likely to be indicative of a "point of recognition" as any sort of over-confidence. I doubted that we'd see much weakness.  I suspected that we were about to witness a rare, parabolic rally and I advised that regular Sell signals were less likely to work out. Last night, the Put/Calls looked superficially Bearish for the market, but the Options Oscillator, which measures opening transaction was Bullish. Also, the OEX "smart money" was Bullish. Additionally, the VIX spiked on a flat day. All of this is a sign of folks either not buying into the move, or worse, fighting it. I also note that ST and IT Momentum "backed into" Sells. When momentum goes flat and triggers a Sell, I've found it's almost always a fade, especially in a strong up trend--it only serves to give Bears hope.  This morning, the FL/FS is neutral, and there still aren't enough short Bears to look for a top, but it is a lot closer--but close isn't good enough. Don't fight this rally. Top-picking is poorly rewarded, if at all."

 

 

I'm going to try to get a full piece up in the MA are as well as on StockCharts. We're witnessing something rare and historic, I suspect.

 


Mark S Young
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#2 NAV

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Posted 30 November 2017 - 10:40 AM

Mark,

 

I think you are too bullish. I am very very cautious about this market here. I am playing with very tight stops and taking very little risk here.


Edited by NAV, 30 November 2017 - 10:40 AM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

“I have heard many men talk intelligently, even brilliantly, about something – only to see them proven powerless when it comes to acting on what they believe” - Bernard Baruch

 


#3 SemiBizz

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Posted 30 November 2017 - 10:42 AM

Well, the only mistake people have made lately... is not being bullish enough...

 

rofl.gif


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#4 fib_1618

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Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:03 AM

Mark,

 

I think you are too bullish. I am very very cautious about this market here. I am playing with very tight stops and taking very little risk here.

 

Let breadth of market be your ultimate guide....nothing else is more important.

 

Fib


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#5 jjc

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Posted 30 November 2017 - 11:38 AM

Mark,

It is very generous of you to share your analysis in such detail. I agree w/ your conclusion. One only needs too look at the leading sectors to know this is no top of any significance (if at all in the DJ-30 and of course small caps lead this season). 

 

 

thanks

Jim



#6 SemiBizz

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Posted 30 November 2017 - 02:11 PM

Well, the only mistake people have made lately... is not being bullish enough...

 

rofl.gif

 

This DJT was a dog with fleas last week... the low of the week came on Monday at 9565, it just traded at a new all time high of 10347... about 800 pts in four days time...

 

Time to THINK BIG... after we all know that "every month starts with a gap up", everybody knows that, right?

 

rofl.gif


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Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"

Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.

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#7 fib_1618

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Posted 30 November 2017 - 02:32 PM

 

Well, the only mistake people have made lately... is not being bullish enough...

 

rofl.gif

 

This DJT was a dog with fleas last week... the low of the week came on Monday at 9565, it just traded at a new all time high of 10347... about 800 pts in four days time...

 

Time to THINK BIG... after we all know that "every month starts with a gap up", everybody knows that, right?

 

rofl.gif

 

 

This is all part of what you introduced to the board a couple of years ago...the "internet of all things" economy.

 

And with this new way of commerce, we have a long, long way to go.

 

Fib


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Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it. - Benjamin Franklin

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