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The fool's game's not foolin'


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#1 diogenes227

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Posted 14 December 2017 - 07:03 PM

From the link:

 

 

That slide into the close saved the trade for the day. After an initial draw down of $1500 (on a $10K buy-in on each trade), the overall net at the close was $7,900 for the day (or 79%) trading the weekly calls and puts (see the chart below for an illustration). Instead of saying the drop from 8 a.m. (PST) into the close “saved” the day, I guess it would be more apt to say it made the day-trade with this system once again great for the day.

 

For more discussion and the illustrative chart:

 

SPY ON THE FOOL'S GAME


"If you've heard this story before, don't stop me because I'd like to hear it again," Groucho Marx (on market history?).

“I've learned in options trading simple is best and the obvious is often the most elusive to recognize.”

 

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#2 opinionated

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Posted 14 December 2017 - 07:16 PM

I wish for the purpose of learning your system there were a way to follow your trades, thoughts, bias excreta...

 

Something you'd consider setting up?



#3 CLK

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Posted 14 December 2017 - 07:20 PM

So you are using the open as a signal line to go long or short ?  I plan on trading the weekly SPY sometime soon, I see a problem with tight stops though, I don't see how you don't get stopped on some of those right after taking the position, timing the exact turn without getting stopped from noise is very difficult, maybe you're fine tuning with the 1 min. chart. or maybe you are giving them 25% of margin.


Edited by CLK, 14 December 2017 - 07:20 PM.


#4 NAV

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Posted 14 December 2017 - 09:49 PM

 

 

With $10 in the trade, it’s also fun to say on good days like today — Made $7900 today with my 10 grand in the market and now I’m flat with no overnight risk! What a fool am I?!

 

When the market moves in gaps with flat days (short range), the day traders look like fools. When the market moves back and forth in large ranges or a strong trending day,  day-traders look like geniuses. In the big picture i.e over the long run, what  matters is the sustainability of any system and consistency - whether you day trade or swing trade. 

 

I have been watching your system. It's pretty darn good on trending days. But what about those flat days ? Can you post a chart for a few of those flat days. I am trying to understand if the profits on winning days compensates above and beyond the losses sustained on those flat days, given that we are seeing more of flat days in a month than trending days. In years like 2008, your system would make a killing.

 

Good trading !


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#5 NAV

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Posted 14 December 2017 - 10:06 PM

The market’s first ninety minutes chopped out two short signals and two long signals before settling into an downward trend for the rest of the day.
 
That slide into the close saved the trade for the day. After an initial draw down of $1500 (on a $10K buy-in on each trade)
 
Size ranged from 72 to 90 contracts per trade.

 

 

 
What kind of STOP size do you use with this system ? I am assuming at least 2 SPX points (or .2 on SPY). With that assumption loss per trade on each contract (assuming a delta of 0.5) would be $10 or $700 on 70 contracts that you traded. I am using the lower end of the size you mentioned. With four losing trades, you would have lost $2800. This is in a ideal scenario without slippages and commisions. If you add slippages and commision, i would say the loss per trade would be at least $14. That would put the loss at $980 per trade and $3920 for 4 trades.
 
But you claim you had an initial drawdown of only $1500. Can you explain the math ? This is only possible if you use a STOP size of less than a point on SPX (or less than .1 on SPY). Is that the case ?

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

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#6 bighouse1006

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Posted 14 December 2017 - 10:24 PM

From my experience Nav is absolutely correct. There are so many factors when you trade options directionally, specifically day trading them. Any mechanical system would get whipsawed to death. Skill and luck would play huge factors. I personally couldnt make any mechanical systems work, so I developed another type of system. In trading, not only do you have to be extremely disciplined but you need to have an edge that no one else is looking at.

#7 da_cheif

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Posted 14 December 2017 - 11:42 PM

 

 

 

With $10 in the trade, it’s also fun to say on good days like today — Made $7900 today with my 10 grand in the market and now I’m flat with no overnight risk! What a fool am I?!

 

When the market moves in gaps with flat days (short range), the day traders look like fools. When the market moves back and forth in large ranges or a strong trending day,  day-traders look like geniuses. In the big picture i.e over the long run, what  matters is the sustainability of any system and consistency - whether you day trade or swing trade. 

 

I have been watching your system. It's pretty darn good on trending days. But what about those flat days ? Can you post a chart for a few of those flat days. I am trying to understand if the profits on winning days compensates above and beyond the losses sustained on those flat days, given that we are seeing more of flat days in a month than trending days. In years like 2008, your system would make a killing.

 

Good trading !

 

most of the days are good if ur long.....



#8 fib_1618

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 09:12 AM

 In trading, not only do you have to be extremely disciplined but you need to have an edge that no one else is looking at.

 

Quote of the month.

 

Fib


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#9 da_cheif

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 09:29 AM

 

 In trading, not only do you have to be extremely disciplined but you need to have an edge that no one else is looking at.

 

Quote of the month.

 

Fib

 

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#10 OEXCHAOS

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Posted 15 December 2017 - 10:05 AM

 

 In trading, not only do you have to be extremely disciplined but you need to have an edge that no one else is looking at.

 

Quote of the month.

 

Fib

 

 

Truth. One might add, or an edge that is hard or impossible for the bots to incorporate in their trading. That's why mechanical systems are harder than ever to make work for long stretches.

 

M


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