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SUDDEN DEATH - The China Bubble


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#1 SemiBizz

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Posted 17 December 2017 - 11:18 AM

So what could end this party?  I have posted many times my impressions here on my many trips to China over the past 6 years or so... I wasn't kidding.

 

Al Jazeera made this video which depicts the "Ghost Cities" of China, and although I have never been to a ghost city, my experience is the many thousands of high-rises I have seen in existing cities in China, not even covered here... but this video gives us an excellent idea of the dilemma... for which there are no answers... it is a ticking time bomb.

 

Finally, fares to China are cheap, I recommend everyone who has some amount of equity in anything go see this, and then ponder the fallout from the coming collapse... This is a giant heads up...

 

The End of China Inc?


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#2 libertas

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Posted 17 December 2017 - 02:38 PM

It is not just in China. Toronto and Vancouver are jammed with unoccupied condos owned by Chinese speculators. They remain unoccupied because that is believed to enhance their value.



#3 dasein

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Posted 17 December 2017 - 07:28 PM

unoccupied/vacant does help in cities with strict controls as long as there is demand - is there demand? if taxes and HOA fees are high there are better places to park money?


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#4 NAV

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Posted 17 December 2017 - 09:45 PM

Jim Chanos talked about this almost 10 years ago, on Chinese plan to build 5 billion square feet of commercial real estate, the residential bubble aside. Most of the coastal cities in U.S have exceeded the 2007 bubble levels now. There's an unburst real estate bubble in Asia, which pretty much escaped the 2007 crises in the U.S. Then there's the bubble in Bitcoin, ICOs, Collectibles. Stocks will soon enter the bubble territory if we rally another 200-300 SPX points. Then we have the Student loan bubble and Car loan bubble. Debt being the mother of all bubbles - private and public. Never seen so many bubbles going on at the same time.


Edited by NAV, 17 December 2017 - 09:48 PM.

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#5 da_cheif

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Posted 17 December 2017 - 10:57 PM

Jim Chanos talked about this almost 10 years ago, on Chinese plan to build 5 billion square feet of commercial real estate, the residential bubble aside. Most of the coastal cities in U.S have exceeded the 2007 bubble levels now. There's an unburst real estate bubble in Asia, which pretty much escaped the 2007 crises in the U.S. Then there's the bubble in Bitcoin, ICOs, Collectibles. Stocks will soon enter the bubble territory if we rally another 200-300 SPX points. Then we have the Student loan bubble and Car loan bubble. Debt being the mother of all bubbles - private and public. Never seen so many bubbles going on at the same time.

 

giphy.gif

 

 

https://media.giphy....e4D8Q/giphy.gif



#6 da_cheif

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Posted 17 December 2017 - 11:00 PM

as for bubble?    7 years ago   this was all sooooooopredictable   http://www.siliconin...&srchtxt=bubble



#7 itrade

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Posted 18 December 2017 - 12:23 AM

China is a different story as it is a command economy. As long as the commander is willing to take the hit and it can handle the hit everything is OK.  This building boom perhaps reflects on the thesis that it is cheaper to develop a piece of land before the population drops in. To develop, China needs the rural folk to eventually move to an urban center where higher paying jobs await. Perhaps the factories will follow soon.

 

Now imagine if Donald trump tells China that he wants to severely and speedily reduce the trade imbalance ($308.9B in 2017). Perhaps this is more hurtful to China than ghost cities. Also look at China’s foreign currency reserves. It peaked in 2014 at $3.84T and has been going down to $2.998T in 2017. It seems to be leveling though.



#8 opinionated

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Posted 18 December 2017 - 12:38 AM

What Ends it? Realism starts to sink in,  After the tax plan passes and traders look around best to stand near the door.



#9 ...

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Posted 18 December 2017 - 04:09 AM

Jim Chanos talked about this almost 10 years ago, on Chinese plan to build 5 billion square feet of commercial real estate, the residential bubble aside. Most of the coastal cities in U.S have exceeded the 2007 bubble levels now. There's an unburst real estate bubble in Asia, which pretty much escaped the 2007 crises in the U.S. Then there's the bubble in Bitcoin, ICOs, Collectibles. Stocks will soon enter the bubble territory if we rally another 200-300 SPX points. Then we have the Student loan bubble and Car loan bubble. Debt being the mother of all bubbles - private and public. Never seen so many bubbles going on at the same time.

 

China RE? That's where they stash their money, empty or not. They don't care if there's no tenant.

 

Bitcoin? A tulip-time joke. There's a sucker born every minute.

 

ICOs? Further tulip-time.

 

Collectibles? An even more minor, tiny joke. They collapsed a long time ago.

 

Stocks? Bubble level may be at about DJIA 100K. US companies actually earn real money and pay real dividends.

 

Student loans? Who cares? Idiots are soon parted from their money, and so they have been, they're waking up to the scam.

 

Car loans? What bubble? Auto balances aren't even keeping up with inflation. Not to mention that auto loan balances are fairly well-secured. Repo guys get paid well for a reason.
 

Your "bubbles" other than imaginary and goofy, minor stuff like bitcoin don't exist.

 

Not a single good reason to sell a single share of any stock.



#10 NAV

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Posted 18 December 2017 - 09:57 AM

 

Jim Chanos talked about this almost 10 years ago, on Chinese plan to build 5 billion square feet of commercial real estate, the residential bubble aside. Most of the coastal cities in U.S have exceeded the 2007 bubble levels now. There's an unburst real estate bubble in Asia, which pretty much escaped the 2007 crises in the U.S. Then there's the bubble in Bitcoin, ICOs, Collectibles. Stocks will soon enter the bubble territory if we rally another 200-300 SPX points. Then we have the Student loan bubble and Car loan bubble. Debt being the mother of all bubbles - private and public. Never seen so many bubbles going on at the same time.

 

China RE? That's where they stash their money, empty or not. They don't care if there's no tenant.

 

Bitcoin? A tulip-time joke. There's a sucker born every minute.

 

ICOs? Further tulip-time.

 

Collectibles? An even more minor, tiny joke. They collapsed a long time ago.

 

Stocks? Bubble level may be at about DJIA 100K. US companies actually earn real money and pay real dividends.

 

Student loans? Who cares? Idiots are soon parted from their money, and so they have been, they're waking up to the scam.

 

Car loans? What bubble? Auto balances aren't even keeping up with inflation. Not to mention that auto loan balances are fairly well-secured. Repo guys get paid well for a reason.
 

Your "bubbles" other than imaginary and goofy, minor stuff like bitcoin don't exist.

 

Not a single good reason to sell a single share of any stock.

 

 

Did you sell in 2007 ? If so where did you sell and why ? Or did you ride the 50% correction ?

 

If you are the type who can sit thru the 20-30% corrections then yes, there is no need to sell ever.


Edited by NAV, 18 December 2017 - 09:58 AM.

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