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Why the market will go DOWN


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#1 dTraderB

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Posted 18 December 2017 - 02:56 PM

It's been a while since I posted but there comes a time when one must post, and that is NOW, because:

This market is at or near a top and there is a simple reason: there is no reason why this market should not go up, up, up....

Everything seems perfect for this bull market to continue its grinding ascent to S&P 2700, then 2725, 2750, 2800, and more since

one cannot see anything in its way. Money is pouring in, a trillion in tax cuts, low interest rates (still after Fed's hikes), positive seasonality, nowhere else to invest (except crazy crypto bubble), and prospects for more 3% plus GDP quarters in 2018.

It's too good, to easy, too one-way, even more bullish than the 2000 tech bubble.

With record low volatility, shrinking premiums, and record irrational exuberance with nothing to fear, it is time to

start buying puts, preferably March & June SPY and QQQ.



#2 da_cheif

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Posted 18 December 2017 - 03:08 PM

It's been a while since I posted but there comes a time when one must post, and that is NOW, because:

This market is at or near a top and there is a simple reason: there is no reason why this market should not go up, up, up....

Everything seems perfect for this bull market to continue its grinding ascent to S&P 2700, then 2725, 2750, 2800, and more since

one cannot see anything in its way. Money is pouring in, a trillion in tax cuts, low interest rates (still after Fed's hikes), positive seasonality, nowhere else to invest (except crazy crypto bubble), and prospects for more 3% plus GDP quarters in 2018.

It's too good, to easy, too one-way, even more bullish than the 2000 tech bubble.

With record low volatility, shrinking premiums, and record irrational exuberance with nothing to fear, it is time to

start buying puts, preferably March & June SPY and QQQ.

so thanks for the mortar......being bearish is easy anybody can do it....few if any will make it to the top of K2    fear of heights and nose bleed is endemic oh and btw https://blogs.wsj.co...nancial-crisis/



#3 MikeyG

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Posted 19 December 2017 - 07:44 AM

The market is very strong! No reason to play short side! 



#4 NAV

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Posted 19 December 2017 - 09:34 AM

Yes, it is frothy - no question about it.

 

For the market to go down, either the price has to go down or the internals. Right now, both are going up. Patience !


Edited by NAV, 19 December 2017 - 09:36 AM.

"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#5 alexnewbee

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Posted 19 December 2017 - 10:12 AM

"both are going up" - well, not today.

 

for the record - short SPX@2690


Edited by alexnewbee, 19 December 2017 - 10:13 AM.

"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein

#6 NAV

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Posted 19 December 2017 - 10:53 AM

"both are going up" - well, not today.

 

for the record - short SPX@2690

 

And what makes you go short ?


"It's not the knowing that is difficult, but the doing"

 

https://twitter.com/Trader_NAV

 

 


#7 da_cheif

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Posted 19 December 2017 - 10:59 AM

 

"both are going up" - well, not today.

 

for the record - short SPX@2690

 

And what makes you go short ?

 

maybe its the post opex adjustment i promised last week for mon tues or wed of this week   www and post opex adj.s are a monthly program



#8 alexnewbee

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Posted 19 December 2017 - 11:02 AM

 

"both are going up" - well, not today.

 

for the record - short SPX@2690

 

And what makes you go short ?

 

new moon :)


"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein

#9 alexnewbee

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Posted 19 December 2017 - 11:23 AM

I do not exclude that we go up once again to 2702-05. But will hold my short and add once it turns down from there.


"we do G.d's work" Lloyd Blankfein

#10 pdx5

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Posted 19 December 2017 - 12:03 PM

Keep in mind bubbles can go on longer than money in pockets of short sellers.

Yes, the market is 10% MORE overvalued than before crash in Oct 1929.

(Shiller PE in 1929 reached 30, now it is 32.6). But 2 things can extend the bubble.

1. Interest rates at record lows, even after the small increases by FED.

2. As the OP (original poster) points out everything looks rosy right now.

 

Keep an eye on 2018 elections. If Trump's party loses congress, bears get ready!


"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule